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Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Aged Home May Be My Choice



Recently, there were some discussions on old folks homes and their usefulness. However, let us remove the stigmas and the 'unholy graces' of aged homes as these homes will become relevant as our population ages. I am not suggesting that we put our aged parents in old folks homes but I may, one day, choose to live in one by choice.  

Singapore, like most Asian countries are less incline to contemplate the idea of putting our aged parents in old folks home due to our culture. 

Apart from culture, there is also a bias view that old folks homes or nursing homes are dirty, unhygienic, a place for unwanted aged; at the other extreme, it is viewed as a place where the residents are waiting for their time to be up! (I shall use Aged homes as representative of old folks homes, nursing homes and the likes)

As procreation and migration decline and the aged increases, there will certainly be a need for nursing homes, not by choice but by circumstances. The working populace will be better off and more productively engage if the elderly are well taken cared of. Let us start now to address some misnomers;

Aged equals lame, unhealthy and useless - Aged homes are often seen as a place where the crippled, lame and unhealthy are housed. This is, at best, half truth. Being old does mean we are less mobile and agile, slower to react and may need some level of assistances but definitely not useless nor bedridden.

Unhygienic,dirty and smelly - These are practical issues that can be easily overcome. You do not find these problems in a 5-star hotel or resort! 

Location - Most aged homes are located at 'isolated' areas, away from the prying eyes of society and its attendant hustle and bustle. Why? Maybe, because society does not want to display the less able and capable populace for all to see. Or, for practical reasons, the aged need a quieter and safer place to rest and have recreation. 

If a country club can attract members so can a retirement village near a reservoir or our water catchment areas. Such social projects should not be profit centric. Besides, these concentration will allow services to sprout and cater to the aged such as convenience stores that break bulk and sell manageable quantities of vegetables, groceries and daily needs (as in Japan) to the localize community. I am sure the aged are environmental friendlier too.

It is ideal to have a childcare or even an orphanage near the aged home; where the aged can keep an eye on the kids and enjoy their company whilst the kids can tap on the wisdom of the aged and learn the values of lives.

Costs - The costs of stay can never be quantified in absolute dollar terms as the intangibles such as a healthy, happy aged populace also means less likelihood of falling ill, disruption to the younger, working population who are taxpayers and by extension carrying some costs of care and share. 

Residence-of-last-resort - Aged homes must not be a dumping ground for unfilial children or a convenient place to put away aged parents for a fee. It is also not a final resting place whilst alive; unwanted and forgotten. The residents must be there by choice. Of course, there will be some who are there by circumstances but this should be the exception and not the norm.

Geriatric medicine - The provision of Geriatric medicine and care must be made more readily available and affordable.

Transport - Singapore still have a long way to go to make our transportation system and buildings user friendly to the aged and the physically challenged. There must be an equal opportunity to mobility and communication.

Growing old is as normal as breathing and having a meal when hungry. We must not harbour the thoughts of putting away our aged population but instead strive to make their living easier, happier and with respect.  




Saturday, February 14, 2009

I CAN



The show must go on and let us live life to the fullest
For tomorrow will come
Make the best of what is available 
And the rewards and blessings will flow abundantly 

Live best in adversity
Live a simple life, keep fit, eat enough and sleep well
Today is the best with 86,400 seconds to spend
As I write, the seconds tick by

With the right attitude, we can move mountains and swim oceans
Do not be handicapped by the crippled mind
Look and act beyond you 
When we overcome hardship and challenges, success taste sweetest

Living is a moment and a movement in life; when you breathe your last breath, life ends
The body can take harsh climates and punishing conditions
The mind can overcome any extremes
The soul will, and shall, remain resilient and rides over an eye of the storm without a fray

Being born into misery is not your fault
But, not being able to relieve yourself and prosper is!
We are Master unto ourself
The race is not just to win but to win comfortably

You CAN & I CAN too

  

Saturday, February 7, 2009

Recovery 08.02.2009 - The East



Recovery In Sight 2009 - The East

In Oct 2008, I wrote "Recovery in Sight" followed by "Recovery in Sight II" in Dec 2008; since then there were some signs of stability and recovery. Is the worse behind us? Probably Yes; but there are still dark clouds that could torpedo this recovery. Verdict: Uncertain with downside bias.


The Stockmarket

Indicative High/Low up to end 2008

Indices                     LOW            HIGH          08/02/2009 

HSI                         10,676          32,000           13,655
Nikkei 225                 7,000          18,300             8,076
JKT CI                      1,100            2,800              1,328   
KLCI                           800            1,500                 896
Shanghai A               1,700            6,400              2,181
SET                            400               900                 444
STI                           1,500            3,900              1,715
Dow 30                     7,552          14,164              8,280
S&P 500                     840            1,540                868

The markets (Asian markets - East - seem to perform better) had rebounded from their lows and the rebound is base on hope NOT confidence. Its likely that we will see the market testing the lows in the coming months as hope turns hollow.
  
Baltic Dry Index 

The rebound in *Baltic Dry Index (the index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea) from the low of 800 points to current 1498 is an early indication of recovery in shipping, mainly commodities. Commerce is trickling through following a near standstill, especially for ships plying the Asian/China routes.

*the index covers HandymaxPanamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coaliron ore and grain.

Other related views

Standard Chartered Bank's analyst, Mr Stephen Green article on "China Materclass: Angus Maddison - the history man" dated 5 Feb 2009 and Nomura's analyst, MingChun Sun, article " China: The recovery may come earlier than expected" dated 2 Feb 2009 reflect an increasing number of views on possibility of early recovery in the East. Even the political boss in China indicates signs of recovery in China.

The Torpedoes 

i) Putting good money after bad - The new administration under President Obama is working very hard to restore confidence but it lacks the political will 'to right the wrong'; what is the point of spending US$900bil to buy toxic assets when you are *putting good money after bad? The bitter pill is to nationalize the ailing financial institutions, reform and restructure them, put in checks & balances without stifling initiatives; then refloat them to the public after they are recapitalized and strengthened. I find it hard to fathom that, in the name of capitalism, these institutions must be kept in the hands of private enterprise. The tax payers take the pain but the private enterprise have the gains! Banking cannot be left largely, and completely, to the private sector.

*sample - Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) - putting good money after bad

Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) - Bank of America and Citigroup are now worth less than the value of their TARP investment
                                                                        
                                           Bank of America                Citigroup
Pre TARP                              $159.7bil                             $110.4bil
TARP money received                   45bil                                   45bil
Current Value                              37.1bil                               22.9bil           
(as of 9 Feb 09 (Time Mag)


ii) Social issues - China's stimulus package of 4 trillion Yuan (US$590bil) includes spending on media, transport, infrastructures, construction, health, communication, rural development & agriculture, power grid and others. However, it takes time for the massive unemployment situation to adjust; in the meanwhile social unrests may be fanned by discontent and impatience as well as undesirable elements who try to undermine these initiatives. Besides, domestic demand is unlikely to replace the export-based economy in the immediacy. There is a delicate emotional balance between jobs made available in urban and suburban areas, inter-provincial provisions as well as returnees. 

The size of China's labour force is 808mil of which 130million are migrant workers; Unemployed migrant workers account for 20 million 

iii) Protectionism - With massive unemployment in most countries, it is not surprising that some level of protectionism will surface. When used as a bargaining chip, global commerce will contracts further. Most countries will look inward and satisfy local demands and deficiencies; its a 'me first' syndrome.

iv) Climate & diseases - I view this global contraction as part of 'boom and bust' cycle except this bust is of a deeper degree than previous cycles. However, with chaotic climatic changes, crops are destroyed, famine spreads and diseases will rear its ugly heads. When it happens, recovery cease as commerce shrink resulting in a downward pressure. 

Is it any harder to contain diseases like bird flu now than previously? Probably yes. When the rural populace is unemployed, displaced and hungry, be it in China, India, Vietnam, Africa or Philippines, they will feed on anything (any food) that is available. Culling of domesticated animals may be necessary but given the choice of dying of hunger or dying of disease, they may choose the latter; not because they want to die (also a disguise suicide)but because they need to fill their stomachs.  

Conclusion

The 1st - 3rd Qtr 2009 will see mainstream man-in-the-street coming to reckoning and sufferring from this financial fallout. Any hope of recovery will be shortlived unless there is political will to 'right the wrong' and to avoid protectionism.

Where the stockmarkets are concerned, its 'Trade with care' as fortune rewards the brave; For those who think they can bottom-fish and pile back into the markets after the crash like before, further dip is not a remote possibility.

Good Luck; Keep fit, eat enough and sleep well.

Best regards & God bless


THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISE NOR ANY ATTEMPTS TO SWAY DECISIONS. IT SHOULD NOT, AND CANNOT, BE RELIED ON FOR MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS. IF IN DOUBT, CONSULT YOUR OWN PROFESSIONALS FOR ADVICES; ITS FOR READING PLEASURE ONLY



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