Crisis & Opportunities

The demise of Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, Northern Rock, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and a string of others are the results of excesses of Capitalism.

There is no one best system; be it capitalist or communist. In every society, there is a need for checks and balances. What happens now is a result of lack of political will to rein in excessive economic expansion; besides institutions like AIG lives her life beyond that of an insurer and provided services not unlike a bank!

The other problem is with the grader. S&P grades the issuers of bonds and institutions; who police S&P to ensure that impartial, true and fair views are expressed consistently. Or that the grading is made on sound postulations.

Also, writers and originators of CDOs, derivatives and secondary issues have moved beyond the reaches of the arms of Laws. Laws and Regulations are often by-products of actions. Many instruments were packaged together and traded, first between institutions, then marketed to unwary players without an iota of wisdom or consideration of consequential failures.

In simple term, growth was powered by borrowings and greased by imaginative instruments; caution was thrown to the wind and profit was the primary motivator.

The need to perform, the accolades given to successes and the rewards were simply too good to factor in the fallouts of consequential failures. Most, if not all, decisions were commercially driven.

Afterall, most corporate honchos and CEOs are professional managers and their term of office has a limited shelf-life.

Was this current financial armaggedon preventable? The answer is yes.

Will it be repeated? Unfortunately, the answer is yes too and in greater intensity. History repeats itself because few will learn.

In the meanwhile, be patient and live honestly and humbly. Like the Law of nature, growth and declines are part of a natural force.

In a crisis, there are also opportunities; Be prepared and be there when opportunities surface.

Good luck

Brutal Truth

Winners get all the attention and losers bite the dusts

When luck is with you, anything and everything you do is a breeze and success begets successes

When you tell the truth and the truth hurts, you becomes the 'courier of bad news' and is deemed a spoiltsport; and will be cast away like a dodo

Many people like to hear 'sweet nothings' and live the life of 'emperor without clothes'

Unless you are seen as useful or can be make used of, society generally keeps away from you

When you are winning and riding high, cruise the course

When you lose, stay low, manage your expectation and bite your time; don't expect pity.

It takes alot of courage to fight or flee; live to fight another day

Suicides end all but being alive means you have another chance, albeit temporary misery

Every man has a weakness and every woman - madness

When you are down, need not ask the 'Whys' and 'How unfair'; the earlier that you know and accept that life will never be fair, the happier you will be

Living in misery is a choice as living happily is another choice; why live in misery when you can just ignore the pains, the hurt and the setbacks; the truth is always brutal

Tomorrow will come but make the best use of TODAY

I have a dream

I have a dream

But I want to live reality to the fullest

I want to be happy; today and anyday

To inspire one and all to live life to the fullest - with hope and inspirations

Complaints, disagreements, discords, being bullied and belittled ... so?

Be real! From dust to dust; we came naked and will return 'naked' ... the only wisdom is to be the best, live the best [within our means] and give a helping to all to our fellowmen

Today is ... my dream come true.

Tomorrow is ... never promised.

I live my dream

Choices - More often than not it is NO choice

We all have a choice; to live happily or to live a life of misery
But, it takes more than guts to brave the betrayals, setbacks, obstacles ... life challenges

More often than not, to flow with life's demand is itself a great challenge but, alas, let us not despair... the journey is forever fraught with unknown and uncertainties.

Whether you live happily or miserably, you need to pass today to reach tomorrow... only to realize that tomorrow never comes!

Why be miserable now? Why not live the best and bask in the glory of today... the choice is obvious but few really have a choice.

The challenges are tough and rough, never insurmountable; GOD, give me strength, show me the way as I live now and tomorrow will arrive soon...........

I want to live the best today; and EVERYDAY - knowing very well that I have a choice.

Stockmarkets 2nd Half 2008 - Win or Loss

Be Prepared and 'forewarned is forarmed' Everyone wants to make money but few does their homework!

Introduction

Last July, investment banks estimated losses from subprime mortgages would total $100 billion. Within a month it had quickly doubled to $200 billion. By November estimates had risen to $400 billion. Now, even Goldman Sachs has posited $1 trillion (re: American Public Media); is this a back of the envelop estimates or wild guesses?

On April 8th, Morgan Stanley's CEO John Mack announced that we are in "maybe the top of the ninth," regarding the subprime credit collapse.Lehman Brothers' CEO Richard Fuld announced that "the worst is over" a mere couple of weeks after Lehman analysts cut their estimates for banks in 1Q08. Merrill Lynch's CEO joined the "worst is over" crowd a mere month before his firm wrote down another $6 billion and announced it would be cutting 4,000 jobs (re:Global Profit Strategies).

Fannie Mae, the biggest mortgage underwriter in America, reported a loss of more than $2 billion last quarter (6 May 2008); a bailout seems like a necessity now!

Was the shout "the worst is over" for the financial crisis a shout in the wilderness? 2008 is a volatile year for index traders.

Elsewhere, political leaders were also trying to inject some sanity and to ringfence the contagion through moral suasion, monetary and fiscal policies.

Is the worst really over or are the leading players trying to tranquilize the public and seed calmness in the haemorrhaging marketplace? Or was it "a repricing of risks" as mentioned by President Bush (30/8/07).

Global issues & the Stockmarkets

Most markets enjoyed some rebound after one of the worst sell-down in March 2008. However, it seems more like "sell in May and go away".

Let us visit some issues and reflect on what has gone right or 'awfully' wrong?

i) In a recent speech, Bernake said that the US Fed is unlikely to reduce interest rate further. This was seen as an indication of a strengthening US$. Speculators 'short' oil and 'long' dollar. However, on 6 June 2008, oil prices spiked up triggering off short-covering that resulted in a biggest one-day movement of oil price (US$11) to US$139; in the same day, Dow fell 394 points! Crude oil is around US$130 today.

ii) With spiraling energy and food prices, other factors of production have also become dearer. Is this the result of speculative demand or reality at work? How do you account for the record breaking profits of oil & gas industry; Exxon's profits for the first quarter of 2008 were a whopping 17 percent higher than its huge profits from the previous quarter. (seattlepi.com - 10 June 2008). Is this a result of higher efficiency or profiteering by cartel-like oligopolistic pricing?

iii) Inflation - in a nutshell; the global growth is fueled ceaselessly by consumer-nation, US, and supported by a huge but cheap manufacturing base, China. With increasing demand, China's wealth creation translates into higher per capita income over the years thereby empowering her citizens with higher 'purchasing power', ceteris paribus. With a breakneck multiplier at work, China scour the world and acquire natural resources necessary to sustain her growth as well as to feed demands from within, and the world at large.

The cost-push and demand-pull inflation feeds on each other and resulted in a runaway inflation currently blazing the globe without any sight of receding. If one equation is truncated, the impact will be greatly reduced.

iv) Arable land shrinks with modernisation, crop switching and urbanisation thereby reducing food production adding to current woes. Nothing seems to be able to stop run away prices! Biofuel only adds to the woes.

iv) ECB is bent on raising interest rate to battle inflation and Bernake has indicated the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rate. Any increase in interest rate in Japan is likely to raise anxieties of Yen carry trades

v) How bad is the US Subprime mortgage loans? The exact figure is still unknown and the situation is made worse with growing unemployment; the full blown subprime effect is yet to be felt; well, Fannie and Freddie mac is screaming for rescue! A truncation of demand pull inflation will ease the vicious cycle of pressure on prices.

vi) Oil price has been rising over the last few years for a low of US$20 in 2002 to current near US$130. Global Research (2 May 2008) estimates that 60% of oil prices today is due to speculation. Oil should stabilize around US$100.

With cost outstriping income, many around the world are feeling the pinch of rising costs of living and protests and social unrests may become the order of the day. Besides, the rising cost of production will curtail demand, therby easing the pressures on costs/factors of production.

vii) The love-hate relationship of US$ vis-a-vis other currencies lends further uncertainties to the world market. Liquidity squeeze, subprime, rising unemployment and rising energy and food costs will hamper US stocks and dampens consumption leading to a slowdown; a long expected breather.

vi) Social order

The widening rich-poor gap threatens social order and is potentially a destabilizing factor to market at large. Cost push inflation will eventually lead to slowdown in demand as goods are priced beyond consumers reach. With uncertainties in the financial markets and the evaporation of confidence, the markets will drop to an earthly levels.

Technically Speaking

There is no prize for guessing the correct number in the indices. But, it looks like its a buy on (extreme) weaknessesand Sell into strength to lock in the profits! Trade the Bear...

The Stockmarket, the Sun & the Moon

There is an uncanny correlationship between the Solar Eclipse (market has a tendency to move up) and the Lunar Eclipse (market has a tendency to fall) - especially if the eclipse is total - as can be seen in the recent Lunar Eclipses in March & August 2007 (its been fairly similar since I began tracking eclipses in 1980s).

In year 2008, the following are interesting dates to watch:

7/2/08 Annular Solar Eclipse
21/2/08 Total Lunar Eclipse
1/8/08 Total Solar Eclipse - a possible BUY chance
16/8/08 Partial Lunar Eclipse


The bull, the bear and the sheep

The bulls are tire; the bears not likeable. And the sheep pay and watch the bulls and bears smearing each other to gain prominence.

2008 makes good trades but holds little for those who are indecisive? Do share your opinions with me.




(THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISE NOR ANY ATTEMPTS TO SWAY DECISIONS. IT SHOULD NOT, AND CANNOT, BE RELIED ON FOR MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS. IF IN DOUBT, CONSULT YOUR OWN PROFESSIONALS FOR ADVISES; ITS FOR READING PLEASURE ONLY . ALL ABOVE INFORMATION & CONTENTS ARE WITHOUT PREJUDICE, UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED)

Organs For Sales?

It is unfortunate but real that when a person's life is on tenterhooks, he will seek the least-resistance path to look for solutions. Where organ trade, and thus health, is concern, the rich will be able to pay his way to get replacement. What about the poor? The world will never be equal but we can make it more livable and humane.

Most are against trading of human organs but will they say the same if he is ill and desperately needed a replacement organ?

I agree with Dr Lee W L that legislation needs to be tweaked to suit changing needs but who will determine if a kidney should be priced at S$30,000 or S$300,000? More importantly, who determines who gets the organ if price mechanism in play?

Perhaps, we can revisit the Human Organ Transplant Act (Hota) where organs are harvested in cases of brain dead patients who did not opt out.

Fresh legislation can be introduced to Hota to accomodate situation where a brain dead patient who have opted out but his organs can still be harvested for their immediate sick relatives or family members replacement for a price. Hopefully over time, when this practice is accepted, or becomes more acceptable, the populace will be more willing to accept price mechanism for living donors.

Too many legislations stifle solutions but effective and relevant regulations make difficult decisions alittle more tolerable.

THE PRAGMATIC POSITIVES

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Being positive is good but sometimes we must not try too hard
We must not drive too hard a bargain but leave enough for a satisfysing conclusion
Walking away from a intense situation will, more often than not, allow enough room for solutions to manifest
When two bulls lock horns, nobody wins
When the aircraft carrier 'challenges' the lighthouse for her right of way, the aircraft carrier is doomed for its obstinancy
Try your best and worry not
Spend your effort to orchestrate solutions instead of worrying about your problems
That split second decision sometimes differentiate between a winner and a loser; a life and death; boom or doom
Learn and re-learn.
Arm yourself with knowledge and be informed
Be aware and adapt to the fast changing environment
I cannot change the environment but am quick to adapt
I do not intend to, and cannot, change others
I listen more, speak less - in silence, I find peace
Everyone can win but few will learn to enjoy & bask in his victories
Sway like the willow and live like the cockroach
If living is to a process, I choose an enlighten journey; I choose to live happily today & everyday
ZEN - nature is permanent yet impermanence
A healthy body and a happy soul ; I shall be

SINGAPOREANS - Are you a Foreign Talent, Foreigner or Local?

From the days of Sang Nila Utama (1300s) to Sir Stanford Raffles (1819) to British Malaya to Malaysia (1963) and finally as an independent nation, Singapore (1965) has been home to migrants from all over the world.

Singapore's early days as a trading post attracts people from all walks of life who seek their fortune in faraway land. Some choose to remain while others become the 'transit' population. The former become citizens in their newfoundland and the latter live here as their place of convenience until they discover their ultimate dreamland.

The underlying attraction was economics and commerce.

In the early days when communication was difficult and news about opportunities were scarce, it was the traders and seafarers who, having been to the hugely successful trading port called Singapore, brought news home and informed their fellowmen that opportunities abound in this sounternmost island; henceforth, it was a trip to 'Nanyang' meaning 'Southern Ocean' which refers to Malaysia, Borneo and Singapore, for those who want to seek fame and fortune. The strategic location of Singapore was, and still is, a plus point.

In our globalise world today, the seamless electronic age has made the world a much smaller place as information avails with the press of a button.

Every country is looking at ways and means of not only attracting , but retaining, talents as well. Having said this, you cannot have all leaders and no foot soldiers if the force is to remain latent and relevant. In simple term, we need brains and brawns to be complete.

So, why is there so much detestation and animosity toward foreigners who come to Singapore to work with a view to settle down when time and opportunity permits? Is it purely economics? Or?

Let us take a look at some possible causes and explanations:

It is the work of all governments to attract as many talents as possible to their country to help maintain, improve, valueadd and create a wholesome. productive population capable of producing more with less, that is, to raise the standards of living while managing the costs of living. This is almost perfect except Singaporeans seem unable to fathom why foreign workers are deployed in all levels of employment, including lower and unskilled workers. I guess when you talk about foreign talents, you are refering to more brains than brawns and this equation does not always equal! The fault seems to be the over weightage given to, and overuse of this term "foreign talent".

Yes, we need talents but every society and population is shaped like a pyramid, with more at the base and lesser as you move up the ladder. Similarly, every foreigner who are willing to toil with,and contribute to, us, be it skill or un-skill labour should be welcomed to plug our deficiency in supply.

At a given level of remuneration, if there is work to be done, someone has to do the job otherwise the economy will stall and regress. If jobs abound and Singaporeans feel the position is underpaying then why is it the job is still attractive to foreigners who have to uproot themselves and part with their family to fill in the 'low paying' job? I guess the underlying cause is the managing of expectations. You either have a combative and protective labour movement or a cohesive one that works to achieve harmony and equity in lieu of competition. The choice is clear.

Should any governments bar or restrict any labour with good, useful, willing and relevant skills from working in their country in order to protect their population? For optimal allocation of resources, the answer is no. We are living in a highly competitive world. We should progress and move ahead to grow the economy, then use (some of)the surplus to help those left behind. They are our fellowmen and they must receive a helping hand! More importantly with our migrant co-workers, Singapore will be more competitively priced to take on the challenges ahead.

What can Singapore offer to attract foreigners of all level to come here to work? Plentiful, I guess. But, there are also many competing nations who have deeper pockets and attractive policies to attract and retain them. The edge, I guess is, apart from suitably tuned policies, Singapore is being considered because of a fairly similar culture, language and religion. They are following our ancestors' footsteps; coming here to seek a decent living, and hopefully, fame and fortune.

Our ancestors were once foreign workers and talents in 'their' newfoundland called Singapore. They came, they saw, they toiled and they settled down and started their families. They strove to be wanted and accepted. They faced the same challenges as the migrant workers today.

Looking at history, all the complaints about the foreign workers, be they talented or not, in Singapore, are not going to change or dent the flow of migrant workers; let us live up to the challenges and accept what we cannot change and work towards a bigger pie so that we have more to share.

Our ancestors were Foreign Talents when they arrived in Singapore. Their families and friends came as foreigners to settle down and long after they were gone, we are still here ... and we are the proud, capable and able Singaporeans.

SINGAPOREANS - Are you a Foreign Talent, Foreigner or Local? I am definitely Singaporean and I hope you are one too.

We have a choice; Majullah Singapore!

Hope - here, there, everywhere

There is hope, there is miracles, there is God!
We will always be safe in the hands of God

Positive attracts positive
We will do well to reside on the bright side of life; don't just work hard, work smart.
Make hay while the sun shines

Everything happens for a reason
Long after the event passed, we will know the reasons for the event happening.
By then, the pain is gone and the residue, if any, is nothing but memories

Life is about living; not just being alive
We should do our best to live life to the fullest, happiest and with contentment

There is no one best way to handle life's challenges
Sometimes you KeepInView, sometimes its in, and most times, its out.
When its KIV, someone will take care of it; either you or others
When its In, someone has just pass the buck to you
When its Out, you have just pass the buck to someone

Moments of sadness last longest because we long for the painful hours to pass
Moments of happiness are shortest because we enjoy and indulge without realizing that time has passed us by

Cometh the time; cometh the man
We are made for the seasons we lived in.

Career - Be The Best

Always be the best & be ready.

Whatever you undertake to do, always do your best. Your enthusiasm and passion for the work chosen, pickled with intelligence and indepth knowledge will manifest into the most desirable result.

Don't just work hard; horses and cows work very hard too! Work smart. Don't be lazy; the greatest regret in life is being lazy. Laziness achieves nothing and losses everything!

If you like :

- managing people, human resource management is good.
- immediate results, sales is the job.
- crisis management, medicine & military is excellent.
- helping others, social and legal work is suitable
- to build, engineering is a choice.
- to prove a point, join politics

The list goes on....

Know your strengths and manage your weaknesses.

Only you know yourself and your goal better. What others can do for you is to guide you towards your ideal; reaching your goal is your work.

The best career isn't the one that pays you the highest nor that that gives you the greatest recognition, its the one that gives you the most satisfaction and a peace of mind. Joy to those who knows the limits of achievements and basks in the glory of sweet victories.

Even Napoleon Buonaparte has his Waterloo & Alexander has his babylon! How about you?

Cheers - Think Positive

Cheer up! A cheerful soul is an enlightened person.

"Know tyself"
A good warrior knows his strength and manage, and minimize, his weaknesses. He fights to win. He is prepared and will only pounce when opportunity presents. He don't fight every battles but he chooses when to go to war.

SunZi - "empty city" strategy -
A guarded fascade, charming and disarming, will keep your opponents guessing, unprepared and unaware. Leave enough ropes for your opponent to hang tyself; why dirty your hands to eliminate unworthy opponents?

"Be like a willow tree"
Sway with the wind and still remain stable! Develop an agile personality to mix with people of all walks of life, races and religion. You need not hate them, or like them. Do enough to keep them by, and be on, your side. Why have enemies when you can have them on your side to fight your battles.

"Remain cheerful and positive"
Positives win more positives! Positive attracts and charms all around you. Not tthat you need to clown around, but you need to attract the right people into your camp; those who will march to your tune.

"Rest well and be composed"
Give yourself enough rest. Fight every war only when you come to it as not all battles are war-worthy!

"Management"
When you are angry and disturbed, don't react; simply walk away. Keep your cool and be proactive because any/every immediate reaction is not thoroughly thought through. You are "eating out of your enemy's hands". You should allow enough time to pass. Management decision can be "Yes", "No" or "Wait".

"Care"
Be thoughtful to all around you. Whatever you do affects everybody, especially those closest to you - your parents, siblings, grandparents ... You don't want to drop a nucleur bomb to eliminate your neighbour!

"Time"
Time is my best friend. When I walk away from an unworthy challenge, I have time to think. And most of the time when you return, your unworthy opponent has disappear, been liquidated or simply became 'friend' again.

"Faith"
Have faith in your GOD. HE will always be there for you, and with you.

Author
Wizard