the purchasing power of money determines ...
WallStreet, as a whole, has risen and pulled-back momentarily. Every drops find new players; a fool is born every day! Or maybe not
In a bull market, even the fools make money
What do you make of rising interest rates, higher bond yields, resilient gold & silver prices, higher equities prices yet bathe with higher costs of consumable goods and oil prices? It's an anomaly
Clearly, tariffs, protectionism, embargoes, disruptions & sanctions contract world commerce; the world economics is in disequilibrium & plausibly recession, or worse. Depression is not far
If energy prices spiral further, worldwide inflation will rear its ugly head & many more people will enter poverty and sufferings will surge; famines perhaps
Gold price is artificially suppressed by [the] reigning Governmental policy, and their shortages do not necessarily create a price spiral. Will crypto currency replace fiat money and gold? Unlikely
Gold may 'not' be a direct hedge against inflation, but it is definitely an alternative to real value measure as a purchasing power whereupon fiat money disappears with the collapse of the reigning powerhouse while Crypto, arguably a subset of AI, it's greatest existential threat is electricity/energy and water [water used by data centers & processors have competing uses as drinking water]
Today's politicians are reinforcing themselves with various perks, high remuneration and using Laws to circumvent 'illegality'; the more Laws are enacted the more loopholes are created. Real incomes of the commoners are worn thin by inflation while 'fat-cat' cheques grease the top brass & harbor them from inflationary pressures ... the occasional rebates, vouchers and handouts are residual reliefs
Who gains most from capital markets? The rich moneyed people and insiders. They play the market, supported by policies and public monies. In the beginning they put their own money, followed by public monies through Funds; by the time the commoners decide to participate, the market has probably doubled [the 3-bagger] and is 60% near the top ~ there is still money to be made though
The world over is suffering from increased costs of living and taxation which the real purchasing power. Commoners are worst hit by spiraling medical, educational and housing costs. They may eat less(er) but necessities are unavoidableIn the former days, gains from stock markets are translated into multipliers in Main Street; there were enough to go around. Today, the top 5% controls >85% of the [global/nation] wealth
Industrialization, boosted by AI, creates bottlenecks of wealth. The multiplier is weakened by trickledown economics and excess [production of] food is destroyed rather than distributed to the poor & needy
Businesses are done between friends & friendly blocs
US/P. Trump intent to embargo, restrict trades, increase tariffs and sanctions on non-pliant Nations and creating rifts amongst nations and trading blocs are the surest way to kill world trades, increased costs and to disrupt supply chains
Nucleus armed nations avoid direct wars & the Ukraine/Russia war was a proxy war, but when the US was drawn into the war with Iran by Israel; that's reversed proxy indeed and a new twist in Thucydides Trap. Rising powers wannabes, China & Russia, may be drawn into a clueless, unending war to defend an ally. These actions increased energy/oil prices, causing inflation yet destroy global economic growth
Is a depression near? Will another WW of-sorts help wipe out US $40trillion deficits? Winner gets to write the story
Many countries' capital market are grossly overvalued, with value concentration in a few [< tens] stocks. When the fad evaporates & the chase cut short, the market will collapse
Leveling down is the surest way to survival; be wary when others are brave
The X-factor that may cause the collapse of the stock markets are natural calamities. The unpredictable change of weather and the resurgence of diseases shall surprise
Is this the end of the stock/equity market? No, but cyclical movement is a sure thing.
Are you the Bull, the Bear or the Sheep? The former two 'are martyred in the market' whereas the sheep are sacrificial objects
It's about the preservation of capital: have a good enough property with minimum to zero gearing, have 5-10% in gold & silver, 5% in bonds, deploy 30% into food, medicine, agriculture and water/power companies' equities, hold the balance in cash [70% local currency and the balance in oft-used forex]
This is not the time for speculation
Gold seem 'illiquid' but, in the long run, few ever regret holding gold
In the onslaught of 1929, Wall Street [DJ - 381 to 198pts] dropped 48% in 2 months. Guess, where & when did it bottomed out? Low of DJ 41 in 1932. DJ 381 to DJ 41 ~ that's a whopping 89%
Is it time to invest in property? No, but if you are buying to stay [necessity], buy but minimize gearings
I am not a doomsayer but a survivalist












