Stockmarkets Timing Is Arts, Not a Science ~ Be Aware & Beware

the more uncertainties, the more opportunities 危机 & volatility...

Many stock markets had tested new highs recently

The investable assets classes; equities, bonds, mutual funds, cryptos, collectibles, properties, others, are 'in a flux'      

P.Trump manage to disrupt the global economics equations 101 and shred normal agreements with his Executive Orders in his attempts to MAGA ~ Make America Great Again ~ the world economic norms will never be the same again    

Alternative group, BRICS, has grown into a mature grouping capable of resetting globalization protocol and repositioning trade flows and orders - businesses are done by & between friends, with consistency in applications, rules and protocols. A refresh universal financial settlement is evolving. 

Businesses seek fair exchange, reliable counterparts, more certainty & not stagnancy and avoid protectionism & unequal demands. 

WATCH OUT for the next turning point around mid-August/early September ... need not be alarmed [as timing the market is an art, not a science]

Indices         Year 2010 [+ - Low]     52weeks [Low]     [High]        Week ending [27Jul]

S&P 500        1,000pts                         4,835                    6,315            6,388

DJIA              7,800pts                         36,611                  45,053          44,901 

NASDAQ      1,500pts                         14,784                  20,980          21,108 

STI                 1,600pts                         3,198                    4,192            4,261

FTSE 100       4,000pts                         7,544                    9,017            9,120

NIKKEI 225  10,200pts                       30,792                  40,852           41,456

HS Index        13,000pts                       16,441                 24,874           25,388

KLSE                 890pts                         1,386                   1,684             1,533

ASX 200         4,500pts                         7,169                   8,776             8,666   

TaiEx              8,000pts                         17,306                 23,383           23,364

SSE Comp      3,200pts                        2,689                     3,674            3,593

SZSE Comp    1,100pts                        2,144                     2,342            2,200          

Thai SET         1,000                             1,154                     1,695            1,217

Gold               US$1,500                       US$2,351           US$3,485       US$3,3335 

Oil                  US$80                            US$55                US$80            US$65

Market moves in cycles [cyclical]  

This chart is only for broad guide

Typically, there is a 4-year cycle, for eg, 1972, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024... For the longer term, 60-years cycle are applicable 

Annually, the quarterly lows are: January, April, July, October 

In my early 2025 write-up, I mentioned a possible fall in markets in March/April and it happened ~ luck or coincidence? Trace back pkweksh.blogspot.com & discover... Time-cycle analysis, EWTheory, fibonacci numbers & other technical skillsets are utilized to project possibilities

Examples of investment manias are the Dutch Tulip Mania and the Dot-com bubble where sharp crashes exposed the unsustainable levels due to unsustainable valuation; will the 'overvalued' AI/Tech & Crypto/Blockchain be next? Time will tell  

The recent new highs in various stock markets are, at best, aberrations ~ feel good, ignored realities, getting used to trumpery & complacency

Value investing will save the day; it is not about dumping your investments but how to identify &/or switch to fair(ly) valued investments and take profits [cash out ~ nobody goes broke by taking profits] from over valued stuffs  

The last Qtr, typically late Q3/early Q4, provides the widest margin for gains & losses 

In 2nd-Half, 2025,  re-rating, repositioning & reevaluating of markets to reflect protectionism, geopolitical discombobulation, deep distrust and a possible 'Black Swan' event 

Take/Book your profits for traders & await for re-entry! What if the market continues to rise after you had exited? Do your homework and position yourself; enjoy your winnings instead ...

Long term traders & investors are like art collectors ~ need no advice 

Finally, many indices [stockmarkets] are experiencing all-time/new highs but the fundamentals have, in effect, gotten worse. This is what James Dines famously quipped "everyone is ready to loss!" 

When you make good money, donate some to charities ... 

If you loss, blame it on the Black Swan

 

 

 

 

 

Success Comes When It's Due

there is a time for everything...

Be patient ~ it is not a choice but a necessity

You cannot rush to complete a/any tasks - when the butterfly evolves from the pupa, you can't help to break the hardened shell. The wings are wet and it takes time to dry. Any humanly assistance & intervention will kill the butterfly. Nature has her way to morph

A woman can be pregnant and gives birth to a baby in nine months but you can't make nine women pregnant and deliver the babies tomorrow

When the body is weak & feeble, it takes time to heal

The world is dynamic, cyclical and evolving - no two situations will end up with similar outcomes, even identical twins differ

天时地利人和也要幸运 

When the going is rough, move aside & away from the paths of the ill-winds, rest & lie low 

Fighting against untempered challenges and swimming against the tides are the surest way to 'suicide'

Anger, confrontation when provoked, frustration and the eagerness to push ahead at all costs will invariably fail ~ history only record dead heroes

There are lots of critics and 'talkers' but "brick & stones break bones", not words
 

Not everyone is a friend & many love to see you 'fail & collapse' but everyone loves a Winner  

Every winner faces more challengers; taking down the winner is the ultimate trophy 

The DOER is not unlike the baker; he makes & mixes the dough, ready the oven, put the readied dough into it, manage the temperature & retrieve the bread when done

Time is the best arbiter

Don't let others 'talk you down' neither do you need to fight whatever is beyond you & against reality

Stress and anxieties are self-imposed leading to depression and feelings of uselessness

Walk away when the heat overwhelms and returns when you are able, capable and ready to manage

Believe in yourself and time is definitive to see successful fruition  

   

 

Crystalling The Financial (Stock) Markets

money ~ always not enough ...

It has been a turbulent and unpredictable 6 months but opportunities 危机 aplenty.  It's 25th June, 2025 ~ sharing the following observations:

Gold - expect to test 3800-4200 for the year 

Crude Oil - trading range 65-85

Bitcoin - expect peaking near 120,000

DJIA - likely to test and surpassed [all time high] 45,073. Resistance 47,000 ~ for market timing fans, all bets off by end Aug/early Sep 

S&P 500 - to test 6147 & surpass. Unlikely to break 6400

Nasdaq - To test 21000. If breakout, upside 25000

STI - tough resistance near 4100

HangSeng HSI - Trading range 23000-25000 

KLSE Bursa - Resistance 1720   

Traders - take profits and exit markets by mid-Aug/early Sep 2025

 

Miracles Happen Daily When The Time Is Ripe

 go with the flow ...

There are many different ways to achieve your goal, not necessarily by force or bold actions; blend into the ecosystem with natural responsiveness & perseverance  

Too much Yang阳 [hardness] create less flexibility whereas Yin阴 [soft] allows for malleabilty, adaptability and receptivity 以柔制刚

Be subtle, adaptable and sensual; talk less, plan enough and need not think too much. Whatever shalt come, will come

Realities are not potentials - be nimble, be like water   

The able leader is able to delegate & only need to watch over his brood as they grow & manifest

Open up and allow attraction to find you instead 姜太公钓鱼 愿者上钩

Be patient and mindful and let fortunes find you; trust your gut feel... widen your perspective and watch others lead while you make observation and conserve energy. Expect the unexpected and be opened to new angles to solutions & leadership

Water source and rivers changed their flows over time; be the ocean to receive [water]. Be spontaneous and natural  

Feelings of fearful apprehension is a sign of  'being forewarned, be aware and to avoid'; stay clear when in doubts but be alert and prepared. Walk away if necessary

Water cuts through steel and stones

天时地利人和 运转乾坤

When stillness and movements meet, harmony is achieved without contrivance nor great effort like the return of Spring

Be yourself; chase no vanity, claim no fame nor praise and free yourself from bondage. Lie low & nurture virtue from within oneself 先学做人后做事   Enjoy quiet perseverance stoically

Withdraw and retreat into safe heaven to watch and observe and avoid incurring hateful retaliation but remain steadfast and firm

Be resolute and fear not; kindness is not weakness & maintain readiness and caution & remain resolute 

When opportunity presents, be genuine, pounce but be humble without making a show of it. Be discrete and subsist by refusing glaring credits

Avoid troublesome, calculative, scheming and difficult people ~ slowdown, observe, pick and choose ~ there is no free meal

Never fight when you are weak and unsure... 

Wait, wait & WAIT; there is a time for everything 顺天命 随天意

 It isn't over till the fat lady sings

Live Happily In Turbulent Times

differing flairs & strokes are enablers to ease life pressures...   

When you are under 20yo, there is no stress except you need to study well & learn some skill sets

Well, the teens call this period the Generation-Gap! The only gap is income gap where their parents earned and pay for their education and growing up years while they do next to nothing but 'paid' to study & learn

When you start working to make a living, it is too late to reminisce the easy under 20yo

Growing up, unlike the flow of water, never [seldom] backflow 

Rivers can experience temporary backflow, often due to tidal action or weather events, like strong winds or heavy rainfall which can cause rivers to temporarily flow backward & geological events, like earthquakes or landslides, not unlike river reversals; these actions are not normal

Man can only live and act forward

Whatever happen, some routes are necessary in the journey towards better days; sufferings are subsets embedded to test your resolve

The first officially recognized sub-10 second 100m sprint was achieved by Jim Hines at the 1968 Summer Olympics in Mexico City, with a time of 9.95 seconds. Between then and now, 190 persons had done under 10sec, with the current record of 9.58 seconds set by Usain Bolt in 2009; a monumental achievement 

Victory is sweet but how much sacrifices and effort were expended and pains pricked and tears fell before the fruits of achievements crystalize

Ultimately, the successful ~ politicians, entrepreneurs, artistes, chefs, whoever... ~ never talk about their failures and sufferings. WHY? Successful people have no time to waste over 'spilled water'; their goal is to SUCCEED & success speak loudest

Be yourself ~ you are unique

Stress, depression, distressed, anxieties and mental disorientation occur when you seek perfection

Fighting for rights and equality are ideals, not readily available to the poor, weak and frail 

In any uncomfortable and stressful situations, seek to minimize all comforts, eat enough to live, speak less(er), stay healthy, remained cheerful & stay alive - live best while others live worst - await your opportunity 

Anything, and in any environment, that are beyond your control, go along and go with the flow - do not swim against the tides

Live to fight another day

Be positive, remain sane and calm

For the better or worse, everything changes over time - when you are at your lowest, there can only be a 'turn around & uptick'  

Before SG's GE25, there were loads of dissatisfaction, complaints, ideas origination and suggestions, cries of struggles and screams of indignation but the outcome were starkly different: >65% supported the existing environment and policies

What above had demonstrated were: in period of uncertainties, people prefer to stick to the "known & usual" than to seek new routes and change 

The determination & capability to survive vary

Live like the willow tree that dance in the storm and await the passing of the ill-winds than the grand oak tree that fell

Retreat into the wilderness and enjoy the carefree universe

When you walk away from the crowd, peace returns

Many worry about 'what others say or think of them', 'wait for a better time', 'tolerate the innuendoes', 'live up to another's expectation', 'become a worries [mental garbage] dump'...

Not too long after you're gone, nobody remembers you

But, BUT... if your time is not up, you will not die. Henceforth, it is best to live a fruitful & fulfilling life

Live now. Live the very moment as tomorrow is never promised  活在当下 明天和意外不懂哪个先到

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Live Well & Be Happy, Don't Worry

feeling free eases life pressures...

When you feel lost, disoriented, sad and/or uncomfortable with your surroundings, the people and the ecosystem, venture into the forest, the beach, the sea, mountain top and... anywhere where you allow your mind to go free 

Free from encumbrances and free from your physical bondage

Listen to the waves lapping onto the shores, the songs the sea birds sing

Enjoy the clear, uncluttered sky and the soothing breeze

Dive deep into, & reminisce, the past, the younger days, the fleeting innocent mischief and the wanton disregards to youthful foolishness

Contrary; you only die once & live for as long as your entitlement allows

Being hardworking, committed, enthusiastic and diligent must be your *second Nature, no "IFs", no "BUTs"

My friend reminded me that between Luck and Opportunity, it is 51% Luck and 49% Opportunity on the road to success

Grab the opportunity and apply your *second Nature, the rest will fall into place. If you don't succeed, you gain experiences

If you don't action it and never try, you have zero chances of success

The youthful innocence and mischief, the foolish challenges, the 'dares' and the 'never#say#die" attitude were not without risks but you live to tell "the story"

Everyone rushes to the end [of life]

Mayflies are considered to have the shortest lifespans of any animal, typically living only one day

Bowhead whales: These whales are among the longest-living mammals, with some individuals living for over 200 years and the Giant tortoises: some giant tortoises can live for over 150 years

Human live averagely to 80 years old; few have the fortune to live beyond 100yo

Live & enjoy every moment 酸甜苦辣 天天难过天天过

The stress of life and living can be avoided. We work to live [earnings] & do not live to work [slavery]. When the chips are low, lie low; be thrifty and stretch your dollars

Everyone is created unique & has a role in his life [time]

There are enough food to feed the world population if there are no hoarding and wastage

GOD created Man to enjoy life, not to slave & suffer

It is Man's ego, greed, self-entitlement and selfishness that created sufferings and poverty; the need to control and dominate will end with destruction

Stress caused depression, anxieties, wasting and cutting short of many lives

The rich cannot live in a sea of poor; if the poor don't cultivate & produce food, the rich cannot eat their money ~ money is a means to an end and not an end in itself

In this uncertain period, keep pace, don't rush, enjoy the peace and lie low. Let the ill-wind blow pass. Money can buy many things but not all - have enough to get by

Like the tides, and day & night, nothing is finite amidst cyclical ... free your mind & live the moments as best you can ~  There is no fear in anything that is beyond our control

I stay within GOD's shelter 避风塘  & trust HE will handle the rest & give me the best

 

 

 

June & It's Opportunities

doing nothing is ...

Being busy is more a blessing than stress

Looking for worthwhile things to do is worse than searching for the needle in the haystack

'Hobbies' is the in-between solutions to "feed & fill" your mental needs; an empty mind is the devil's workshop

The overworked mind, if not physically sustained and balanced, will crack [the mind ~ insanity]

It is necessary to walk away when the pressure builds up ~ ventilate & release

Everyone is dispensable

We work to live and not live to work - do not work yourself to the grave

Enjoy your family warmth and be surrounded by loved ones ~  no amount of money can buy, nor should this be left to, the future as tomorrow is never promised 明天和意外 不知哪个先到

Instead of worrying about tomorrow, it is best to live well today, and any day ... for tomorrow may not come - this is not pessimism but reality

No Man can defeat nor control the the wrath of Nature ~ after the destruction, comes reconstruction but the population wipe-out could be monumental

Live or die by the decree of the AlMighty

The current global trade conflicts, restrictions and protectionism is an 'act of [economic] war'; and the repositioning of economic groupings may help minimize disruptions and instill some sense of stability

What is happening around the world today reflect Man's ego - the "Thucydides Trap" - refers to the theory that war is likely when a rising power threatens to displace an established power, often leading to a shift in global dominance

Instead of global cooperation, blocs of countries, lead by the Alpha-leader, challenge another for dominance

The Alpha-leader also demand undivided loyalty, payment of financial tributes and isolation of  'common enemy', imagine or otherwise

It is best to do nothing & avoid being caught in the crossfire; stay neutral 

Nothing is permanent; infinity is abstract

P Trump and E Musk were the best of buddy; E Must fund his presidency campaign and he won. He positioned him into his inner circle but today, they are after each other's throat ~ the most powerful man versus the richest man

Goh JH, son of ex-PM GCT, lost a legal suit and was held liable for $146m. On his appeal, he was found not guilty

Quote - "It ain't over 'til (or until) the fat lady sings"

In this period of uncertainty, opportunities 危机 abound  

Do Not rush, stay calm and calculated 发呆是一种艺术

If it must be yours, it will be

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prelude To Stock Market Gyrations

in turbulence, opportunities abound...

It is already late May 2025 and many lives are disrupted and the questions on many people's mind are; will there be [more] aggravated wars, economic disruptions, inflation or recession? Global capital markets had suffered a set back in March/April period [1Qtr], though recovered, but many are still reeling in agony

P Trump's on-off tariffs and erratic executive orders is putting lots of stress and pressures on all & sundry

USA has pushed Europe into a siege amongst themselves; to be or not to be

Russia and China are forced to close rank while the rich MidEast nations have to 'pay for their protection' against potential aggressors, without antagonizing US, Europe, Russia and China   

You can expect less(er) disruption until August arrives & nearer (where) the Total Lunar Eclipse, circa September 7, 2025 ~ another financial shock is highly probable [plus/minus weeks]*

*The technical charts quarterly cyclical lows are January, April, July & September

Between now to end August, traders will have a field day but, BUT, keep tight stops [likelihood to pen another analysis nearer the 'fateful' date]

Everyone wants to make money/profits but few are willing, and discipline, to do 'homework'/analysis

The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient - Warren Buffett

There is no lack of opportunities 危机 In my boredom & listlessness, I read to discover new possibilities and mend my inadequacies 

书中自有黄金屋，书中自有颜如玉

Knowledge is priceless; may not be useful now but it shalt be of use some day

The martial artist trained earnestly not to pick a fight but, if need be, he protects himself and his properties with his preparedness when exigencies present

Be there, done that; have a story to tell

I make no attempts, nor claim to be able, to predict the stockmarkets. I do technical and fundamental analysis, sprinkled with lots of commonsense and psychology; I look for values in investing

Like everyone, I learn to stand up after every fall ~ when you fell into a hole, stop digging

Between now to mid-late August, I am a range-bound [dips & rise] trader; no fanfare, no emotions

On a bigger picture, you cannot ignore P Trump - his words & his actions send seismic vibrations across the globe but, although he is a tough bargainer [not negotiator], he can settle for less  

The warring factions and nations will ceased fighting if the supply of weapons stopped 

The world is nearing self-destruction if nukes fall into the hands of a 'madman'; he has no sense of equilibrium

Let wisdom and the level mindedness rule

 

 

 

When You Need To Talk

 when the heart is heavy, it is ...

Sometimes, your heart is loaded & you have lots to share or pour out

But, it is not always possible ~ audiences are not readily available neither appropriate at times

The bloated heart sometimes bleed with glee as it releases emotions in dreams

I have, and will still, lengthen my dreams to enjoy that moment of happiness and exhilaration ~ a harmless indulgence

On the same page, I will awake soonest to estop nightmares 

Mother Nature has no limits in solutions

不是做不到 而是还没想到  

Trust GOD to provide answers ...Oops! HE is busy at times though

Take a walk, cycle, enjoy a long transport travel aimlessly, get lost in the uncharted terrain; do whatever fits. A clear mind works wonder

When the mind wonders, let it wonder - free it

A running heartbeat could be due to fear, love, shock, passion, and/or even discovery ~ the tinge of emotional alarm ringing

The heartbeat and the breathe - whichever stops, life stops

I tears easily, not because I am weak but because my heart overflows with genuineness and compassion

I can take punches but I will never tolerate character assassination; it is better to die with honor than to live the life of a coward and accuse    

Time is slow when you are sad and fast when you are happy   

Friends, no friends, few friends ~ whatever! Be the brave one, be ALONE

没有永远的敌人也没有永远的朋友 自有利益

Not all feelings need to be shared  

In this ever changing ecosystem, you need to be fleet footed or, remain calm whilst awaiting the situation to stabilize  ~ an un-emo heart and a calculated brain help

Remained unmoved by your surroundings as gossips, innuendoes and hearsay undermine confidence

Whatever and however you feel, do not be generous to share you feelings; the envious plot to exploit you, the jealous seek to expose and gossip about you but your true friends will avoid you

When you need to talk, confide in the AlMighty; HE will absorb your excesses and keep them ~ humans will always gossip

You need not live like a hermit; keeping quiet manifest peace

 

 

 

Truths, Lies & Half-truths

empathize but don't sympathize ...

Some people deserve their consequential poetic ends

Nobody know the 'real' him/her as some facades envelop "Jekyll and Hyde" completely but Karma keeps perfect records

Stockholm Syndrome ~   Stockholm syndrome is a coping mechanism to a captive or abusive situation. People develop positive feelings toward their captors or abusers over time. 

You may pity, and be concerned, but the victim believed in his self-induced narcissism and lives in a silo, away from reality ~ there are niceties ad ignorance  

When you know it is untrue, lies and half truths yet you accept it as truths, you have pawned your life to the devil 

 

因果轮回 ~ 不是每一个人都可以帮【除非你要（能）扛他人的因果】do

Man proposes & GOD disposes ~  do your best and leave the rest

In "Careless People", author Sarah Wynn-Williams was right to chase her dreams and created a job position out of thin air. She docked a job in FB, devoted her time and life (almost died) to climb the corporate ladder but ...she didn't draw red lines or base lines and ended up packing when she was near the top

Trust NO one when you are fighting to gain steps up the corporate appointments - everyone is your competitor

Use any means and methods toward your targeted pole position; any mercy may mean 'squid game' end

Knows when to quit ; it's best to quit when you are at [or near] the top. Be there, done that

We arrive alone, naked and crying and someone gave you the first bath

When you leave, some others will cry and a someone will give you a final bath

You can't change the world unless you change yourself yet everything that happen around you may affect you

The earlier you realize that being alone is better than be in bad and wrong company, the less disruptive your life will be

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lesser Said Is Wisdom

the less spoken, the better...

The compacted time and space have made silence more than golden; brilliantly golden orange

Quietness, alone and emptiness will be rare and sought after in the throes of noise and disruptions

Being able to travel alone, be alone and remain alone restores sanity and stability

I'd like to retreat into less crowded, fewer people, little vehicular traffic arena and live amongst Nature; the birds, bees, flora and fauna and almost nothingness

A good retreat, the outside world & WiFi-less environment, shalt booster the mind and body

I shalt will away all my worries and disturbances; nothing affects me as I adopt and adapt - the chameleon - whatever fits

Fight or flight isn't definitive; be prepared & ready to fight ~ Offense is the best defense 

Threatening to take actions is reactive, being prepared to counter-attack is proactive and more definitive 

The 'poison shrimp' is small but the bigger enemy will die swallowing it 

Mental health is the pilot of societal norms while the sane mind, if disrupted and disoriented will crashed 

Peace be with you/all

Soon, leveling down will occur and more will benefit and be given chances to climb the social ladder - a billion divided into thousands benefit more lower level commoners 

[Steve Jobs had >$10bil when he died and NOBODY can help him carry his illness. If he had spent half his wealth feeding the poor, underprivileged and sick, for all you knew, a [or a few] may volunteer to donate their organs to keep him alive and extend his live]

Wealth without health is a greater curse

It is better to be alone than in bad company. Sometimes being surrounded by everyone is the loneliest, because you'll realize you have no one to turn to 

The curse of the Stock Market

Many don't realize that the stock market rewards the brave, who are far and few in-between

When the crowds rush in, it is time to get out; it's being alone and right, not loneliness

When the market crashes, everyone disperses and that's loneliness

The recent cliff-like drop in stockmarkets have recovered and while many were hurt, some new winners emerged 

Consolidation and range trading will be the norm but "be out" by mid-August/September; it may pay handsomely to keep short positions by then

The rich is never short of friends but the poor seldom get invited

Be yourself and need not envy

I am learning; trying to learn and put into practice ~ avoid friends with motives and schemers

I'd wriggle into my cocoon and hibernate soon and let the turbulent ill-winds blow by

I am getting tired, maybe burnt out - swimming against the tides of resistance

If you don't hear from me after one month, I could have expired but I have lived my life to the fullest ~ moment by moment 

In GOD, I trust

Man proposes, GOD disposes

I shalt return stronger