the uneasy comfort of the capital markets...
When there were free flow of goods and services, the world grow steadily and many countries benefited. The setting up of WTO, TPP, RCEP, BRICS and other inter- and intra- regional groups were meant to ease & encourage global trades... but, protectionism, embargo and trade restrictions quickly suffocate and "time-out" many economies
Some simply stay in their Group(ing)s and milk their hosts. If EU (27 countries) were to break-up today, many of them cannot survive the next 5 years
The USA is the biggest culprit in printing money, not backed by any precious metals or fiduciaries, to fund its expenditures and global adventurism
The strength of the US$ is backed by next to nothing, save for being a well-armed nation
The FED is a 'private' institution
The two WWs were triggered by their desire/want to dominate controls of resources and economies
Cyclical movements and reactions are the reflections of the aggregate of psychological response to a given situation
Why are there a "4years", "10years", "60years" cycles? Generally, every 4-5 years there is an election (political changes). Every 10 years or so, a person move onto his next stage of life. Example, 10years schooling, then joins the workforce after graduation (20years), career development and around 50-60yo, retires.
Index 52Week(Hi/Lo) Current
DJIA 41,585/32,327 40,345
S&P500 5,669/4,103 5,408
Nasdaq 18,671/12,543 16,690
Nikkei 225 42,426/30,235 36,391
HSI 19,706/14,794 17,444
STI 3,509/3,041 3,454
FTSE 8,474/7,279 8,181
FTSE Bursa 1,684/1,412 1,653
Gold(US$) 2,559/1,809 2,526
CrudeOil(US$) 95/67 68
Bitcoin(US$) 73,759/24,952 54,204
The chart above is other's work & due credit should be given to the Author
Year 2024
The 4-year cycle is a near perfect reflection of market Highs/Lows as mass psychology are captured and reflected. When this short-term cycle coincides with the longer 10years and 60years cycles, the impact is greater, yet forceful. All, if not most, of the markets saw a 4year cyclical low in 2020 before recovering
Expect (stock) markets to see a cyclical low anytime soon, especially the West [has been on the rise for the last 5years] whereas the East (using China/HK as a barometer) has been declining. Japan will be affected likewise. Will there be a shift of smart monies from the West to the East?
Technically, yes. The East valuation (PEs) is cheaper compared with the West but trade sanctions, embargo and limping FDI/investment will impede substantial recovery
Expect intense volatility ahead - markets reward the brave but penalize the reckless. Everyone wants to make money but few do their homework
Money, smart money and fiat money, [government-issued currency that is not backed by physical commodity eg, gold, but the issuing government] need to find safe heaven to grow and hedge against depreciation; where else is better than the capital/stock markets. Investment in commodities markets is an ideal alternative.
Investing in stock markets is as safe as when there is no war, social unrest and political uncertainty.
Until the valuation is adequately adjusted in the overpriced markets, you have a choice of investing in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, HK(proxy for China), Taiwan, Singapore and India
It is wise to take some money off the market in this counter-trend rebound and await an impactful sudden downswing. [Short sellers stay short but with tight stops]. What if the market continues it's uptrend? Well, nobody goes broke by taking profits
I am not a doomsday sayer and neither am I a blind bull; trade at your own risks
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