2025 Stock/Capital Market ~ The Imperfection Of Perfection

infinity is indeed finite...

Stockmarkets

The 2024 euphoria of WallStreet, capping high & higher indices [DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P500] is not unlike the Last Waltz ... but few are leaving the dance hall

Since the 80s, I deep dived into the capital & commodities markets  and the experiences are not something that any books can fully describe. It takes more than fundamental & technical analysis [including time-cycles, ElliotWave, Fibonacci numbers, wave patterns, lunar and solar eclipses & others]; you need lots of commonsense and an appreciation of psychology   

As there are too many "X-factors" that influence stockmarkets, i will narrow down to describing the Lunar & Solar eclipses. The degree of impact of eclipses vary whether it's partial eclipse, penumbral eclipse, annular eclipse or total eclipse.

Lunar eclipse causes pull back in stockmarket whereas Solar eclipse is positive and the stockmarket rides the upswing [there was a Total Solar Eclipse in April 2024 and most stockmarkets enjoyed an uptick, even the weaker ones also rebounded before tapering off].    

Another sample, in Feb 2008, stockmarkets fell following a Total Lunar Eclipse and recovered by August 2008 with advent of the Total Solar Eclipse

Around Mar 1997, the Total Solar Eclipse lent confidence to stockmarkets such that by the onset of Total Lunar Eclipse in Sep 1997, the Asia Financial Crisis was in full blown. With the Total Solar Eclipse casting in Feb, 1998, sanity and recovery returned 

January and July of 2000 saw two Total Lunar Eclipses; perhaps, you may want to test this quiz! Going forward

2025 - Partial Solar Eclipse :

29th March, 2025

21th September, 2025

2025 Total Lunar Eclipse :

14th March, 2025

7th September, 2025  

Will 2025 be any different? Your guess is as good as mine

Some may equate eclipses to superstitions but somehow the phenomenon influences mass psychology. Of course, everyone is entitled to their own beliefs and opinions. YES! Take above with a pinch/pound of salt and as some story telling and kinda folklore. It is NOT an investment advice

The power of positive influences

The (im)possible 'landslide' win by Trump for the next US presidency defy all negatives; paid companionship, felony, accusations, aged & olde, impending 'cases'... were followed with sharp gains in cryptos and the capital markets

Israel went on to defeat the Hamas mercilessly, attacked the neighboring countries, including 'taking down' Syria against human order and committing genocide with impunity

Ukraine, with US/NATO backing and blessings, is fighting Russia. The unthinkable was when the West allowed western arms and machinery to be used against Russia; with her nukes stockpile, Russia will not sit by idly in defeat. It shalt be MAD ~ Mutual Assured Destruction

Globalization 1.0 was when countries enter into direct economic exchange and cooperation whilst globalization 2.0 was when economic blocs deal favorably with one another. Globalization 3.0 is when China's initiative, One Belt, One Road [OBOR], begun. The world's trade are well served and delivered in speed and precision and minimal disruption

Asia anomaly 

In the meantime, fairly peaceful Asia is frequently provoked into action against one another by the mightier US & her allies. It will be US's dream come true if wars break out in Asia and a sea of red explode in suddenness

MiddleEast, Europe and Asia are the playgrounds of the US; the more uncertainties and bitter infighting, the better but nobody gain in wars and destruction, save for US continued domination ~ what good can you inherit in a destroyed globe? Clueless vanity  indeed

Going forward

2025 is gonna be surreal; how does, or can, FED reduces rates if, and when, P. Trump imposes higher tariffs and caused imported inflation and how will Asia, in particular China, in her current deflationary mode, motivate "spending and the multiplier"

The world's trades will shrink, plausibly triggering a global recession when one dominant economic bloc refused, nor allow others, to trade with other regional blocs.

But, all is not lost; After the dusts settled, and the damages done, it is reconstruction time when sanity returns   

Everyone will pay a price for the 'insanity to beggar thy neighbors' ~ there will never be a perfection of this imperfect world ~ sharing is the only way to survive and prosper

Man & His Karma

when human turns dark & plot against one another...

The turbulent world will be made worse by selfishness, greed, envy and hate

When resources and opportunities are scarce, the fear of losing and 'not having' more push more to 'destroy thy neighbors' and plot against one another

The top 10% control 90% of global resources and wealth, hoarding lead to more sufferings and resentment

The poor(est) brilliant outliers will plot to singlehandedly to destroy the hoarders 'to save' the general populace ~ an ideation born out of frustration

Nobody is any smarter with the consequences as the rich cannot live in a sea of poors and the poor man's life is of little value 烂命无价

Man work to live and not live to work 

生活不是活生生的 Life is to live as a human and not living as a zombie 

Many preach to live with compassion, care & share and to give a helping hand to those in need. But, alas, as there are less to share and go around, such saintly advice shalt fell on deaf ears

Well, well ...all is not lost

MAD ~ Mutual Assured Destruction - is the time where more bad characters are killed but wars and destruction cannot differentiate 

Guess, in the pool of dead, 15% are accidental deaths; being at the wrong place and the wrong time - 85% are baddies

Avoid the crowds

After the destruction, comes calmness, peace, acceptance and prosperity; perhaps, it is a situation of 'no choice', that is, reconstruction and rebuilding lives

Human are generally more cooperative, harmonious and caring when the world level down and very divisive when prosperity, coupled with corruption, breed widening Gini-Coefficient and dissatisfaction  

Earth, with GOD's blessings, will be the Heaven for all humans left behind after the chaos; destruction is not a must but the results of Man's fallacy & foolishness

Do not despair

More often than not, the baddies and their leaders will die ahead of the good and goodies. Why? The baddies plot against one another and to destroy the other; the good are incidentally destroyed

Provocateurs die the same deaths as their victims; nobody escapes Karma

So long as Man choose to dominate, conquer and destroy the weaker ones, the world will self destruct; the weaker mass is capable of cumulative destructive forces when irrationality reigns

Revolutions and change of regimes do not happen in isolation but after substantial repression and desperation

The moon will shines despite being lightless ~ the Sun helps

The still water will flow again and clears though it had stagnated ~ the winds help

In anarchy, a new leader is born to lead the flock out of misery

Everyone here on Earth is on a mission and for redemption

Every drips and drops fill the ocean just as all & more good will make Earth a Heaven; the miseries are the result of bad vibes and actions 

There is enough to feed the world's population but greed, selfishness and hoarding create famine, hunger and destruction

Some day soon, the food silos will be ransacked and redistributed and the wealthy baddies destroyed

If, and as many believe, GOD so love the world... henceforth, the sufferings are man-made

Believe ~ GOD will deliver

Be good

2025 - The Future Is Bright & Prosperous

slowly but surely everything changes...

This is the last month [december] of the year ~ day by day and finally the last month shall pass too

Frankly, nothing changes except the new calendar, 2025, appears as life goes on

The IMPOSSIBLES were made possible

Like many, the year started with hopes and aspirations, checked and disrupted by many uncertain and unexpected events; the genocidal actions of Israel bombardment of Hamas & Palestinians, the testing of us$100,000 by Bitcoin, the use of western powers' missiles by Ukraine to hit Russia and prompting President Putin to threaten the use of nukes against the provocateurs, the pumping of fresh monies into the 5-years Bear market in China hence allowing some semblance of stability and recovery of the PRChinese economy, the 6-hour of South Korean martial law, the pardoning of Biden's son by the outgoing President Biden himself ... Aboveall, the landslide win by Trump of the US presidential election against all odds

Pressures keep building & an implosion is not to be totally discounted

Nearer home, the stepping down of LHL as PM to become SM and the ascension of LW as PM, the ever increasing costs of living yet being cosmetically offsetted by rebates and vouchers, the political asylum for LHY, the blurring of lines of the ruling party with institutions and organs of the State, the liberal widening of import of foreigners, the widening Gini Coefficient gap ...     As of June 2023, the population of Singapore stands at 5.92 million. Of these 5.92 million people, 4.15 million are residents, consisting of 3.61 million citizens and 540,000 permanent residents (PRs)

The exuberance of Capital Markets 

As at today [10th Dec]:

S&P500    6052.85          DJIA  44,401.93         Nasdaq  19,736.69

STIC 3813.55        Gold  2703.80         Crude   68.40

Nikkei  39,367.58     HSIA  20,311.28        FTSE Bursa  1,608.97

Trump's election victory has created as much uncertainty going forward as there are direct positive correlation in WallStreet, but for how long [more]. 

I bet against excesses; the markets cannot live on promises alone; traders beware and be forewarned. The smart money is seeking safer heavens with lower and more earthly valuations

Expecting the unexpected will lessen the impact of 'shocking changes' in 2025  

The probability of large scale wars breaking out

There is increasing concerns that aerial proxy wars may snowballed into one big war[WW3]; this is quite likely as skirmishes and accidental wars are gameplays for politicians but when nukes fly, nobody will be spared

US is happy that Europe is entwined with Ukraine over its war with Russia ~ an uncertain Europe is one aspiring#world#leader#competitor less 

Against US plots & hopes, China is unlikely go to war with Taiwan. Any accidental war is more likely a "N Korea vs S Korea/Japan" but emotions amongst Asian nations will sway toward backing China than Japan because the atrocities/ghosts of WW2 is still raw [memories] with many 

Israel vs Palestine & the surrounding areas is not unlike daily bread; it's been brewing for years

More importantly, NO nuke-armed nations will surrender to another ~ it's MAD ~ Mutual Assured Destruction

Nukes in a sane man is peace but nukes with a mad man is simply M.A.D

Maybe, destiny has it that the global population has to be reduced and decimated as Man's ego, greed, vanity and his One#UpManship drive him into his dismal choice; Man will never learn a/any lesson

The future is not that bleak but it could have been better. We should welcome the Century of Asian Growth whereupon more than half the global population stay. 

I have strong positive vibes that after the uncertain phase, peace and prosperity shalt prevail & Asia will be the Centre of Global Economic Leadership & Growths