Time Cycles

Everything goes round and round ...


Does history repeats itself?
Do we really learn from our past?
If yes, why is it our mistakes get bigger, graver and in greater degree?
On a positive note, discoveries, breakthroughs and advancements are also better

Stockmarkets are measured from low to low because price rises when hopes abound
Commodities markets reflect fear; prices rise as fears of shortages create multiplied demands. Cyclical prices are measured from high to high

The Kress conception of the 60-year Super Cycle:

The previous 60-year cycle/K-wave bottom was in 1954 and the next one is due to bottom around 2014. 

World War I centred in Europe : began on 28 July 1914 and lasted until 11 November 1918
World War II started in 1939 and ended in 1945 with the released of A-Bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
The 1950s witnessed the decolonization of Africa and Asia, the space race, the challenges and conflicts posed by communist and capitalist idelogies, the birth of European Communities (EU) and the recovery post WWI & WWII.

Are we witnessing some of the worst times in History like an Economic armageddon before good times can return? Perhaps!

This is not a doomsday pronouncement but recalling an uncanny shadow from yesteryears. Rightly or wrongly, many of us will live long enough to see better times.

However, "belt-up" tight; it will have to get worse before it gets better!

What goes around, comes around

Temptation

All men are tempted.  There is no man that lives that can't be broken down, provided it is the right temptation, put in the right spot.  ~Henry Ward Beecher, 1887


This humanly world is filled with temptations
Many call it habits, additions or unavoidable chances ... guess, stolen kisses are sweetest

Excessive eating, drinking, vices, gambling
Greed, domination, selfishness... are undercurrents of temptations
Fighting back and trying to make good a 'last hand' is almost always impossible and destructive

In vices, if you cannot, and did not, win all this while what make you think the next 'draw' will be superior?
You can't put a face to/on a con artist, a demeaning person, terrorist nor a person bent on 'doing bad'
There are seemingly good guy who turn nasty, selfish, self-serving and cheats when their facade falls apart

Every man has a weakness
However and whatever you do to hide your hideous acts
Somehow, somewhere and/or someone will discover it
Deferred prosecution may rectify the material loss but you can never reinstitute life nor emotional scars

When Providence punishes you, you are lucky
When punishment befalls your offsprings and/or family, the pains are raw like 'salt on wounds'

Walk away from temptation and you walk away from inherent sorrows
The triumphs and tribulations that you gained at others' expense will return to hound you

Best friends, good neighbours and close relatives are choicest victims
Similarly, retribution are sweetest when it hits those closest to you, including yourself

Be forewarned
Most people don't get mad; they get even
But when retributions hit, you will be 'evenly rewarded' with sorrows in tow


I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it Mae West 

When Time Is Finite

"You have at most 3 months to live," the doctor pronounced!

What goes on in your head with such crushing news?
How did you accept this cruel pronouncement?
Why me?
Who should I share this with or I should just keep mum and ...

Your world shatter in front of you.

Shocked, acceptance, denial & rejection, depression ...
No matter how strong, how brave or how indifferent you are
When your body clock is finite and will end soon
You will be devastated

I believe most, if not all, people cannot accept defeat let alone a deathly announcement
Knowing that you are in the clutch of death-gate and unlikely to get a reprieve is worse than dying itself
But, many also awake whilst living in death's shadow

I think its not the darkness of night that we find challenging but the lengthiness of night ...

Its a mirage and miracle that many manage to outlive such pronouncements especially if they live like there is NO tomorrow and lived happily

Do you or will you?

Don't wait till your days are numbered
Live happily, healthily and enjoy every moment - today, tomorrow and any days

Our time is always finite
We live on borrowed time as tomorrow is never promised

I ... try to live to the fullest
I stretch my day and cuts down on darkness
I sleep lesser

...somedays I have 25 hours day; can you?

NO ... nothing

There is emptiness
There is nothingness

The World seems at a standstill
My world seems warped and hollow

My thoughts are void
My mind is blank

Some days are just meant to be
The mind wonders, the Soul dispirited and the physique weak
No motivation and living like a shadow of yesterday's me

Man is a coward animal
Loneliness is a big challenge
Silence is a threat

Take away his freedom and ringfence his movement
He will wilt and drop dead

Man needs a community
Be belonged and wanted

Just another of those dull day... where nothing goes right and everything goes awry

Sleep the blues away and the rainbow of life shall return

Singapore - Creativity is well and alive

If you don't have it, built it ...

Jurong Bird Park - The world's tallest man-made waterfall.& the world's largest walk-in aviary


Bishan Park - Rivers and waterfalls will soon dote the park 


Garden By The Bay - Where trees, flora and fauna sprout overnight to display a botanical miracle


Lake - The marina freshwater lake-to-be


Water - NEWater or reclaimed water are treated wastewater used to supplement water supplies


Dwindling and/or Aging Population - Import foreigners to fill, add and top up the population


Top Students - Offer grants, scholarships and sponsorships to potentially bright young foreigners to study locally


Sports - Offer citizenship to promising players to don national colors


Corporate Status - Offer OHQ status to overseas conglomerate, peppered with tax incentives and liberal employment  policies


Assets - The homeownership scheme make almost everyone a proud home owner and potentially a millionaire


There are pros and cons to creative solutions, not necessarily bad though! But, some are stretching the imagination a little and may breed resentment and wears patience as existing provisions and infrastructure  are 'max-out'.   


Perhaps, we should ask, examine and learn why Norway, Sweden or other lesser populated countries are just as successful and happy? Instant replacement and gratification is not the best answer. 


Do we really want foreigners, who over time become Singaporeans, to dominate true, blue-blooded Singaporeans in the long run? The Japanese and the Swiss has this answer!


Let us continue to be creative but pause a little to ponder on social issues... and their repercussions, if any.

CNB gave wrong drug arrest numbers

It is rare and admirable that CNB director Ng Boon Gay readily took responsibility for the bureau's statistical oversight. More importantly, the bureau pursues qualitative approaches to rein in on drug abuse, trafficking and 'casual' but dangerous experiments on party drugs.

The discovery of statistical error would not have happened if the bureau had not relied on intelligence collation, mental and manual observation rather than following the hard numbers blindly. 

While enforcement and deterrence against drug menace lie with the bureau, the battle against the destructive forces of drugs is not CNB's alone. There is a need to educate the public on its danger, in particular our youths, and to create awareness through education, support and soft approaches.

Let us not plunge into a witch-hunt nor blame game but to support CNB for making Singapore as drug-free as possible. There must also be sufficient avenues for the abusers to be rehabilitated and support for their family to help them eke out a decent living during this turbulent journey.

Also published in www.straitstimes.com

http://www.straitstimes.com/STForum/OnlineStory/STIStory_716904.html

Trust or Trusting

Truth is as scarce as trust...


History repeats itself because history never records the truth; it records what the historians want recorded. Sometimes, its clouded by selfish intent and what the Honchus want to hear; sometimes, it is a marriage of convenience, diplomacy and a bias towards nationalism.

Banks fail and drop like dead flies. Instruments like Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO), mini Bonds, Derivatives, Sub-prime make NINJA loans (No Income, No Job or Assets) looks like child-play. Banks survived on trust and confidence but when its performance driven, henceforth profit maximization, care and trust give way to reckless money spinning strategies; a dollar stretched 50 times is like a nuclear bomb in a suicide bomber custody.


Investors were peddled with unsafe instruments which carries hollow warranties; the truth is that these are banks originated instruments but the fact is banks/bankers betted against the very instruments that they created! 




The Opium Wars were the climax of trades and diplomacy disputes between Qing Dynasty and the British Empire. America was drawn into the WWII following the bombing of Pearl Harbour. Did someone deliberately waited for a reason to engage in wars so that history can explain why certain events took place.


As layman, we trust doctors to treat and heal us of any diseases. When National Taiwan University Hospital transplanted AIDs-infected organs to five patients, the element of trust was pivotal but the carelessness, if not recklessness, in which preventive procedures were missing speak volumes.


We learn to trust but the World is filled with half-truths. Monetary gains and fame precluded  ethics and integrity. Beware this world will be filled with false prophets peddling miracles and quick solutions. 


To conclude, we can trust most of the time but we must not be too trusting. Sadly, most offer half-truths. You must seek and be convinced by the other half. . . guess, we need to rely on gumption or gut feel.   

The New Economic Order Part 2 : When greening is successful

Greening aka recycling, reuse and reduce ...

You may disagree with me but when greening takes root, it is almost when times gonna be bad, or becoming bad.

It is when everything is deemed expensive, especially factors of production, that the world looks into cheaper alternative and salvaging wastes is one.

Green energy, biofuel, eco-friendly produce and earth-friendly materials are never considered unless they become commercially competitive. So what are the factors that drive greening?

Simply, dollars and cents.

All the talks about saving Earth, lengthening the health of Mother Nature are ... but talks!

My observation is "when the green  movements gather momentum, it is also a sign that boom period is over, or almost over".

When money is not a problem, men will splash on the best (caviar, wines), the tallest (  the 828 m (2,717 ft) tall Burj Khalifa in Dubai,United Arab Emirates), the most luxurious car (Bugatti Veyron Pur Sang , Ferrari Enzo , Lamborghini Reventon) while fertile agriland and forests are cleared for golf courses and luxury villas.


Man will always find an easier way out; If alternatives are not price competitive, it will simply be equated as price-sensitive and 'no good'. 


Unless, our very existence is threatened, the green movement will always be a minority. We are not blind to reality; we are just blinded by money!


In similar vein, I feel the best is over and the World economies is/are going downhill. Demand for commodities will fall and price weakness shall follow. There will be a structural change in Capitalism and some currency(ies) may become historic, that is, banana currency.


This is not an economic apocalypse but long awaited change waiting to happen (In post WWI, the Austrian Krone disappeared).


Hopefully, we will learn the lessons of earlier years, that is, the greening of Mother Earth is not just about dollar and cents but survival. 


The consolation is that in our wired World today, recovery will come sooner and faster. The speed of change is greater due to compress space and time. But, sometimes, the night seems darker and longer... 


The next sunrise will be just as beautiful if we live to see it!
  

Singapore - My Home

There is no place like home...

I was born in the forgotten generation, the post-1960s - too old for the Government and policymakers to give any, let alone much, attention yet too young to die and fade away; economically stable and capable but ignored.

In our instant gratifying, disposable Society, age becomes a liability. How absurd? Wisdom comes with age!

Even experts and analysts of post-GE and EP missed out this group by a mile. Their focus were on the younger voters, the newly-mint citizens and the elderly.

The post-1960s (age 50s) are the 'power brokers'. They are able to influence the views of the younger voters (being their parents) and the senior citizens (their elders and parents). They bridge the young and old and their thoughts and decisions are incisive and definitive.  

This group is also economically able and capable; both as producers and consumers.

Terms like 'silver tsunami' and an 'aging population' not only stigmatised aging, but made them seem useless, unwanted and a burden to Society; are they? That's furthest from the truth!

My observation is that whoever ignore this group is doing so at their own perils! When you win this group's hearts, you also win a chained response from the young and old.

The post-1960s group provides for their children and their elders. They feed, cloth and house everyone within their abilities. Inter-dependency is well and alive. If their livelihood are threatened, their pleas are ignored and  policymakers sweep their cries under the carpet, the message to their young and old is one of survival. Wouldn't anyone expect a unified response?

This group is also better informed and, by extension, vocal. They are well wired and there is a constant need to air or ventilate their opinions. The very burden of looking after the young and old does not allow for indifference.

I believe negative sentiments and issues like late marriages, lesser babies, higher cost of living, foreign workers, housing and employment ('unemployment' or underemployment) would have abated if the post-1960s group's views and concerns were catered to - the chain is only as strong as its weakest link.

Singapore is my home and change is the only constant. I trust our PM Lee when he said he want to, and will, reach out to the people. The post-60s group is a bridge to the young and old. Through us, the message is harnessed and actions manifested.
  

I Am The Winner

I win, today and anyday...

Heaven is not a place to go neither is Hell
Once you arrived in Heaven or Hell, your choice is made
Whereas on Earth, you still have a choice; to go Heaven or Hell
Enjoy life to the fullest

Living wisely and smartly is everyone's gain
Trying to outdo and outfox others is to create an environment where trust is shallow and faith is hollow

You may gain materially
You may win some friends
But, you will have to be on your toes always; living in fear that you might be dethroned, defeated and drowned in your own game

Go live your life to the fullest
Climb the highest mountain
Swim the deepest ocean
Make sweetheart deals and charm the World

The World only gives recognition to the champions, the winners and the best

The World will never be ruled by mediocres; even ruthlessness stand a chance

Similarly, you can fool some people some time, most people most of the time but never be able to fool all the people all the time

The World awaits a winner in you; everyone makes it in their own right - you CAN too as no two persons are made equal or same

Be truthful to yourself and winnings are yours to keep

Tire

When the mind wanders, let it wander...


Sometimes, the mind is blank
Someday, the Soul is tire
Somewhere in the body seems to ache but you are unable to pinpoint

You prayed for rain but you get sunshine
You asked for a job change but you get job enlargement
You want a quiet moment but your kids/friends/spouse need to talk to you

Life seldom turn out to be the way you desired neither will you get everything you want


Rest if you must but never quit

Sleep away your worries and pains and dream away all ills ... dreams provide the escapades that reality can't
Dreams allow the Soul to unwind; like cartoons, you can take maximum pains and smashes, wake up well, unhurt and in 'one piece'

Give yourself a chance that nobody will

I am the catalyst of changes

Tire ... YES
Rest ... I will

I rather be the grass dancing in the wind than the grand oak tree that falls resisting the (challenges of the) wind

I live to fight again tomorrow... my return will be swift and incisive that nothing but SUCCESS manifest