Forward Fiction: What Will 2020 Brings

tomorrow may not come...

The Capital Markets

The US debts have risen from under $16trillion (2012) to $23trillion (2019).
The DJIA was about 5000 points in 2011 and rose to near 28,000 (2019).
Were debts powering DJIA or did DJIA pave the way for more debts? Either way, can each or both survive an economic stalemate to decline caused by trades restriction (read: trade war)?  
As the US$ finds save haven in Petrol$s, will a sudden 'divorce' cause a collapse of the almighty US$?
The future is uncertain...

The future of finance is as safe as a 'collapse' so as to enable the values in circulation to adjust to real, instead of fiat, money. Ideally, a managed decline is better than sudden changes but the world order is in disorder as trusts are dissipating fast. The avalange of derivatives written by banks and underwritten by insurance houses, if implode, will make 2007/8 looked miniscule; a child's play. Watch gold.

The first 3-quarters of 2020 will be a test of nerves where the trade wars may manifest into an accidental military confrontation of sorts. The level minded political leaders have to ward off the 'hawks & trigger-happy' politicians & military boys whose thoughts centred on 'limited warfare'! In this dangerously nuclear-armed world, it's gonna be MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) & it's destruction unlimited.        

I am not altogether negative.

Trade conflicts will be ironed out but painful acceptance is required. In the meantime, every countries and economic blocs adjust to each others' expectation. Trades may fall, economic numbers decline but over time, it become a 'new normal'; there are enough to go around as expectations wane. Smart monies will find haven in new techs, fintecs, eCommerce and, logistics and AI (Artificial Intelligence) will gain prominence.

On-time and Just-In-Time deliveries will grease the waves of commerce. Capital markets will continue to provide the money flow whereas commodities markets, especially soft commodities, will gain importance as more mouths need to be fed.

A divided global packs of USAmerica, USEurope and USAsia (include Russia), all commonly greased by MidEast Oil, will slow down commerce but not decimate trades. Watch Asia. Of course, if this happens, we may be walking through the dark tunnel of depression. Isn't this Boom & Bust Cycle?

Expect the global uncertainties to clear out but 4th Quarter, 2020. Hopefully, Earth still remains healthy and intact.

There is hope. 

You have your picks on where to 'invest your money'; the good old, "eat (everyone still need to eat), use (the basic supplements for daily living), necessities (need I say more?) and new eSolutions & eCommerce (the new eWorld)" industries should meet your needs.

Wishing ALL A Happy & Prosperous 2020