Capital Market : Money & It's Value

money will find safe heaven...

They say smart money will thrives
But, who decides where to put what, how much, how reliable the fundamentals are...etc
It is not "Random walk" but plentiful of educated guesses, assumptions and bases
Global, regions, countries, sectors, companies...the management
In fact, companies do not fail; it's the management
Laws and regulations cannot catch up with the fluidities & craftiness of a rogue mind

In 7th Jan, 2020, I wrote in this blog "... I postulate that in 2020, the world will remain uncertain within the first 6 months and shall see the worst by 3rd-Qtr, with recovery towards end 2020..."

Global markets have swing wildly from almost the peak to untested lows & lower lows
Most have recovered from the bear-slap to a fairly 'bullish' pitch
But, hold on your champagne - hold it, hold it
The rebound is lead by slush printing of notes/monies to flood the black crater of depression
Put enough water into the hole & it will look like a lake

Water, water everywhere
But, drinkable water is not easily available
Civilization starts near water source
Water 水 - 水为财
In similar vein, too much water [print too much money] causes disaster

2020 is the Year of Possibles

Many impossible thoughts turned possibles; countries closed, airports closed, aeroplanes mothballed, work stopped, debts freeze, businesses ceased, home quarantine is a norm, demand and supply both evaporated & ....
COVID19 will change the whole ecosystem of how we live, eat, work, study ...not unlike 9/11
For the smart leaders, outsourcing must stop or minimize least the sudden shortages
The people's leader will prioritize citizens over foreigners
Money is important but money cannot buy essentials, loyalty and necessities
Smart monies no longer go "in herd"; everyone will try to identify their own winners

How will the bashed up stockmarkets return to their upswing? By the printing of money

It is a different financial world altogether
Debts, interests, repayments, instalments are halted and given 6-12months reprieve
Payments resume thereafter & if bankruptcies rise, banks will be badly hit
Job losses is the norm as supply and demand are short circuited by COVID
Cash flows determine survival

How soon and how fast individual economy resumes is subjective but if the big boys are not moving, there is little that the smaller ones can do to resume
Financial institutions will be suspicious of each other as much as against the business community
Even if Government cares to warranty the debts and loans, confidence is so shaken that many business endeavors are suspect

Where stock markets are concerned, be discreet and agile
Trade the range and be prepared to cut loss with "stop loss" orders
Gold has moved swiftly from
With Government printing more money, inflation or hyperinflation is a possibility
Equities will "reflect the value in the currency", that is, price shalt rise on a de-valued currency 
It is going to be trying to second guess the turbulent future
 

If war breaks out, equity market is doomed & commodities markets will gain

Market will still be turbulent and trade range bound this quarter
It should dip and stabilize into 3rd quarter and recover by end-2020
Brave the range

Attitude: My Evergreen Life & Living

every journey is not easy...

You were born naked and arrived alone; rarely with another as in "twins"
When it's time to go, you return alone; rarely with groups except in calamities
Life is a lonely journey; everyone has his own route
Similarities aren't same 同人同姓不同命 
Along the way, no two persons will pursue the same paths even if their goals are supposedly same
Differences allow one to shine brighter

I have many groups of friends and every group is made of persons of different characters with different needs
Their attitude towards life also differ greatly as their intents to achieve their goals are as deep as the deepest ocean; hidden away from any honest conversations
That's our colourful world
Some will scheme, some are conniving, many are dreamers and idealists  
Most end up being satisfied 知足常乐 & resigned to their 'fate' as their energies sap away
The more successful ones are those who had honestly sweat out to seek achievements, minus the negativities and evil intents

No roads are lonelier than our bodily well-being and health
Nobody can help you suffer the onslaught of diseases however healthy you may seem
After two unexpected operations within five months, I am not able to do strenuous exercises
The road towards rebuilding my body and health is arduous and monumental
 It's my grit, determination, positivities and focus that is keeping my spirit high
Many around me will never be able to understand what I am going through

I need NO sympathy

At times, life is lonely - then again - alone is not loneliness
Sometimes, life is empty - well, well - empty is not void
I wanted to turn recluse but material influence is still thick and strong
I believe if I seek silence and serenity, my health will recover faster & my body stronger
I am seeking some leads to be more enlightened
There is a higher calling but I haven't seem to be able to decipher just yet

I have lymphoma - the shocking word - cancer
After not, and never, been substantially unwell before in my 60th years, my body gave way
I had the best annual medical check up results in early 2019 & everything evaporates by Nov, 2019
My physical fitness puts many people at ages 30-40yo to 'shame'
Age is a number but sickness is random
We are as healthy as when no diseases decide to reside in our body

I give myself one year to reclaim my health and body fitness
Nothing is going to tear me into pieces
I will rid myself of all sicknesses, regain my health and move on to conquer new frontiers
I don't, & need not, worry as I believe in a One-on-One relationship with GOD
GOD resides within me & my flame of life shalt burn brightly again ...soon

Anyone reading this must remember; my thinking is 40s, my body & physique is 45s and my attitude towards life and living is evergreen

I came. I see. I conquer & I live forever

Surprise Or Acceptance

surprise is not a word...

My first encounter with a medical challenge was a ruptured gall bladder in late Nov, 2019
How in the world did it rupture when I have no known medical problems, not even a gall stone
The pain came like lightning out of a calm sky, stingingly pain piercing through raw flesh
After a CT-scan, it was like sending my car to the workshop; I signed myself into the surgery theatre to remove the ruptured gall bladder and clean up the surrounding mess

Recovery was fast

It wasn't too long when I realized that I am in for a repeat order
I have hernia on the right groin area that needed to be repaired and a growth on the left that must be removed; groin area too

By March, 2020, I had the repairs done and the excess removed
I don't even looked sick after my second surgery in such a short interval
Life was 'as usual' and I recovered albeit slower
The scars formed slowly and the pain evaporates in due course
Time is the best friend

Nothing unusual, nothing suspicious

Motto: Living healthily, happily & positively
活在当下
Today & now is my currency to be utilized
Tomorrow is never promised
I do my best and chase my dreams
If I do not try, the answer is definitely barren
Every tries better the success rate

So long as I am well and breathing, I shall succeed
The interruptions to life is always temporary
It's mind over body
I shall push for new frontiers within my abilities & capabilities
Nothing can stop me except myself
I am consistently building my body, not a Man of Steel, but a body to sustain the vagaries of life
No challenges is too onerous nor demanding
Time is the best friend and I shall overcome & win the race
Physical pains are bearable so long as I have grit, perseverance and forbearance
Victory is sweetest when beating an almost total loss position

I am not an immortal nor a superman
I have my strengths and weaknesses
I manage my weakness but manifest my strengths
So long as I have an iota of winning chance, I will 'use the match to light the forest'
I do not allow setbacks to bury my spirit - weakened, tired but not beaten
I find strengths in God, my friend

HE is my guiding light

For whatever challenges I face, I try my best and leave the rest
GOD is there & everywhere to relieve me of undue challenges and pains
I will not be overly concern as HIS omnipresence adds vigor and strength to me
GOD willing, I will succeed
HE shalt relieves me of pains and sufferings

Acceptance make living lighter and more manageable

I will not delve in the "what if" ...

When Health Fails, Do Not Give In

when misfortune strikes ....

How healthy can a healthy person be? He is deemed healthy if he doesn't has sickness
Everyone says stay fit and healthy; who don't want that? Nobody loves to fall sick
However, a physically healthy person can still be a victim of illness
Diseases don't select their victims; your are randomly lucky
Like life and death, when your time is due, nothing excuses you

I have seen physically healthy persons suddenly succumbing to illness
An organ failure, cancer, TB, motor neurone disease ...the list goes on
First, it was denial; why me? Then, acceptance followed by depression
If you get away from depression, your recovery chances improve
"Giving up" is the surest way to death as most illnesses are 'curable'

Cures - the side-effects and sufferings can be minimized
The quality of life is the determinant, not quantity/length
Quality aside, most will live as long as they want to fulfill their unmet goals
However, Man proposes, GOD disposes
Death the leveller almost always come unannounced

Make the best of everyday
There is no need to second guess what will happen tomorrow
Tomorrow may never come as it was never promised
Don't worry about going to Heaven or Hell in your afterlife
It is best you live heavenly on Earth than to live in Hell while alive

It's not a choice but the last breathe is finite
I may return if Earth isn't too crowded or when I have unfinished matters

When my job is done on Earth, I will move on


Do your best; today, now...anytime and every time
Enjoy to the fullest for misery and happiness is a state of mind
The paralympian & the olympian both steal a moment of glory
Nobody remembers who is in the second and third placings
Enjoy your limelight but you need not wallow in self-pity
The best victory is success

Be like water [skills]
Water cuts through mountains and ranges [tools]
When there is water, there is life & most civilizations start near a water source [hopes]
Without water, few to nil species will survive

Never gamble with your life as we only have ONE life
If you wanna give up and think your life is meaningless, go visit a hospice to see the 'true values of life'; a day alive is a day gained

Be lively when alive 生活 不是活生生的

The journey of life is "from dust to dust 生老病死 - arriving naked & returning likewise"

Nobody wants to fall sick
But, if you are sick, may the spirit be spritely & dance to the flow
Nobody can take away your spirit, attitude, grit and energy
Be patient as science and medicine improve over time and a cure is within reach
If nothing else, at least, live wholesomely

Life Goes On - Opportunities

will I die ...

2020 kicks in with Nature overtaking Mankind, where work stopped, aeroplanes grounded, countries lockdown, supplies & demand were disrupted. 
Climate and environment improved, birds and animals reclaimed whatever little spaces.
Economies grind to a stop, capital markets tanked and contagion spread.
What were once thought impossible, became possible!

For the price of one, you'd get 2.
Whoever said in the new century[2000s] that there are not enough spaces to park aeroplanes need to eat their words.
Mega-airports were built to cater to the evergrowing numbers of air-travellers.
Today, many airports lay idle

The next crisis will be currencies. Currency is the new debt.
Currencies are printed by Govt+Central Banks to pay for the digits that disappeared overnight in Capital markets and financial institutions; papers backed by trust alone!

Nature has asked for indulgence but Man refused. With one broad stroke, Man is crawling on all fours

There're opportunities in crisis
But, this is a 3-in-1 crisis: financial+ economic+ disease, an unseen challenge
危机 Every crisis is different and the magnitude of this 3-in-1 is stretched in imagination
I guess the smart monies will still find safe avenues to place their monies
Buying in the stockmarkets need prudence, diligence and selectivity
The time has come where fools are separated from Man
Few can make the grade but the recovery will take time...a long time indeed
A V-shape recovery is less likely as the world restructures to meet new expectations

Will I die or survive? It's mind over body

Everyone dies some day - once - and we live to journey away into the wilderness
Between being born and death 酸甜苦辣, you have a choice to whether to live the best you can or to wallow in misery until you expire

In every crisis, leveling down allow old rich to be destroyed as new ones created.
Nothing lasts forever.
Not even seemingly good health; GOD will send you something to challenge your status quo.

I...I am in remission
After a healthy 60 years, something within gave in
It's a new challenge, not a death sentence
I will overcome with grit, positivity and perseverance, sprinkled with GOD's blessings

I shall see the lights of many tomorrows
Rest if you must but never quit
Today's problems are tomorrow's lessons
Focus on the solutions - they are abundance
Be the match stick that lights up the forest - burn brightly

My life is evergreen and age is a number

Stock Markets - Looking At My Crystal Ball

whatever tomorrow brings...

One of my favourite topic is always about the capital and commodity markets. I began my career when I was 20 years old as a commodity investment trader and went on to spend 20 years in the stockbroking industry thereafter.

Indices      52Weeks Hi/Lo              5year Hi/Lo              Current week ending 13/03/2020

N225        24115/16690                     24448/14864             17431
SSE          3288/2685                         5178/2440                 2887
HSI          30280/22519                    33484/18278              24032 
DJIA        29568/21154                    29568/15370              23185
S&P 500    3393/2478                      3393/1810                  2711
NASDAQ   9838/7194                    9838/4209                  7874
FTSE          7727/5237                     7903/5237                  5366
STIC          3415/2510                                                        2634
FTSE BURSA 1691/1320                                                  1344 

This week or so, major sell downs is probably caused by combination of side-effects of trade wars, tariffs, global protectionism and bathed with Covid19-contagion, gripped by isolation and lockdowns. The halting economies cracking at  or under 50 per cent did nothing to help restore confidence.

By Thursday, 12th March (SG time), as I resume consciousness after an (LA)operation,  I relooked at some of the indices/charts and most reflect 'bottoming out' formations with  grossly oversold positions. It was "buy for rebound" & "sell into strength" scenerios.

"Buy for rebound"??? Why so???
The markets seem to be scurrying for safe shores and many were re-cashing out. It is as though "cash is king" has just returned. The nearer truth is probably meeting of cash-calls and margin top-ups.
At extremes of sell-downs, it's a "trading buy"

"Sell into strengths"??? Whys so ???
The fact that many investment instruments were sold down, coupled with substantially slower economic activities warrant a re-rating and reassessment.

Nobody goes broke by taking profits

From the charts, [most of] the markets is likely to recover and trade at "range-bound". Another testing of the recent lows, after the rebound is not totally unexpected. Brave a 2nd Qtr volatility and a 3rd Qtr base building. The year may end with a more positive recovery mode.

This is not an investment advice and nothing here should be construed likewise. Consult your brokers, bankers, investment experts for advises.

Everyone wants to make money but few wants to do homework.

Smart monies will find safe shores but smarter fund managers will find "gems in the rocks"


Good LUCK; if you make money, please spare some changes for the poor, less fortunate and the life-strugglers

How Lucky Can Lucky Be?

born, age, sick, die ... is a journey

Global capital markets went into a tailspin after the effects of trade-wars restrictions and tariffs
Throw in the contagion, Covid19, sprinkled with global border closures, isolation and quarantine
You have it made
Global economies grind to a <50 activities="" lockdowns="" p="" performances="" while="" zerorise="">
Wall Street fell almost 30% from its peak, bringing along other bourses
Equities, bonds, treasuries, gold, ETFs, hard assets, bitcoins drop like there's no tomorrow
Govts scrambled to stymie the 'collapse'
Many doomsday preachers surfaced to add credence to their beliefs

In my January blogpost, I did mention the turbulence & volatility in 1st Qtr & into 2nd Qtr
I also mentioned increase demands for medical & medicines
I am not a soothesayer but just providing level minded postulations
The world will turn better in the last Qtr, 2020

In life, it is not how bad things will become
It is whether when the situation turns better, are you sufficiently prepared to ride the next waves
More importantly, are you around and alive to harvest the next lap
Opportunities abound in crisis 危机

After years of being in the pink of health and fitness, I had an sudden uneventful gall bladder rupture which required immediate surgery
Four months after, I had to do another surgery to rid a growth and mend a hernia
Nobody wants to get into trouble but if it comes, 'take it by the horn' & resolve
There is no running away from a challenge

I am LUCKY as at both times, I have access to medical helps
I am equally LUCKY that I avoided the financial chaos & rout that many were caught off-guard
I am LUCKY that I came out well and alive
LUCK is where preparation meets opportunity - I am prepared & GOD presents the opportunity

Health is our capital
Without health, nothing can be achieved - no fame, no power, no wealth; not when you are dead
There is no need to delve into and be stuck in misery and misfortune
Between life and death, you are the ultimate DECIDER

Live simply and count your blessings活在当下

Slow Down & Watch The Winner Wins

winning & its pains...

The world loves a winner; any winner
History is written by winners
Glorious empires come and go; mismanagement, complacency & selfishness killed all
No nations, big or small, can survive by betraying their own citizens
The indifference and lackadaisical attitude towards commoners' concerns are their Achilles hill
Trust, when broken, can hardly be restored

Fruits of labor is as sweet as there is a harvest
No amount of sweet talks, half truths & lies can warrant performances
Why do you pay for someone to lord over you? But, the fool & his money will soon part
When you leave your fate to others, you shalt enjoy his providence
种瓜得瓜
Trusting someone blindly is not unlike leaving the cat in the fishery
The pen is mightier than the sword - vote for the best person

The winner will always be challenged
The champion will have to take on the challengers; again and again
You must know when to quit - quitting at the peak for sportspersons is the norm
知足常乐 胜者为王
Lights shine on winners only - there is no need to feel ashamed being a loser
Most people couldn't even remember who's the Number 2
[Neil Armstrong was the first man on the moon; who's number 2? Edwin Aldrin
Jeff Bezos is the riches man in the world; who's number 2? Bill Gates]

漏气不要紧 不要没气 人在事在 人亡事完

Society grows great when people plant trees whose shades the future generation sit in & enjoy
前人栽树 后人乘凉
My labor today shalt be the fruits of the future
The land of abundance lives in the mind
Think of possibilities
You are as restrained as where your mind brings you

Winners are seen, recognized and glorified
But, no one sees their sweat, tears, blood & sacrifices before victory
To each his own
Today's victory maybe tomorrow's history
Be there, done that

Hurry not for we are all running towards the end

Stay Normal During Challenging Times

staying alive is about being healthy...

The current 'state of siege' by coronavirus is disabling & paralyzing the community
The disruptive effects can be far and wide; isolation, quarantine, closures of schools, loss of business
Many unnecessary services such as F&Bs, entertainment, personal effects will 'tanked' 
Unreliable and non-transparent announcements will only served to build distrust & panics
Fear and ignorance are the biggest threat in such crisis

From incubation to full-blown to recovery can take anything between 6-9 months
The drier and hotter Aprils onward will help to ease and destroy the viruses
In the meanwhile, prevention is the best defence
Practice good hygiene; wash hands, shower when you are back after an outing, especially if you have young ones at home, reduces the probability of catching it
Worry not as worries do not solve problems
Stay fit and healthy

You can have all the monies in the world but without health, you are dated - ask Steve Jobs
钱不是万能  但没钱万万不能

With health, you can find money; create, beg, borrow, steal 健康就是本钱
Even with plentiful of monies, nobody can help, nor take over from, you your sicknesses
Exercise regularly, drink more water, eat lightly and sleep well - the antidotes of aging & illness
A refresh mind aids the Soul
The healthy person avoids sicknesses and transmits positive vibes
You live 'forever' but you only die 'once' - the quality of living outweighs quantity

I have seen many who have next to nothing prospered and became multi-millionaires
Similarly, many well to do became paupers as 'the fool and his money will soon part'
But, HEALTH - no one can steal away your health
There is always the scars of recovery and the less optimum capability thereafter
Money - make enough but not too much that you need to pay for health recovery & salvage
Life is quantity versus quality

Let us not be immobilized by health scares and contagion outbreaks
Take all the necessary precautions and practice high(er) standards of hygiene
Life & living must be as normal as possible
Take this lull season to revisit your resolutions and plans and upskill and read more; be empowered
The trick is to "live well when others live controversially"; be natural
There is no need to challenge Mother Nature - normalcy shall returns

Alone is not loneliness
Silence is not mute
Empty is not void
It's not the calamities that kill many; it's ignorance
Keep fit, stay cool & healthy
Be there when tomorrow brightens

Fear Not

shed no tears ....

There is time to fear and there is time to 'shelf the fears' & take the bull by the horns
When push comes to shove, you must react aptly and swiftly
There is no time to hide from any adverse situations
When an infectious disease threaten to spread, all preemptive measures must not be spared
 Prevention is better than cure as the dead cannot be brought back to life

Paying & incentivizing anyone to prevent mischief is the silliest
You are, and will be, held at ransom in the long run
Simply throw the Books at the culprit
For the greater good, sound & decisive judgement is imperative
Wishy-washy decisions only serve to burn the 'house of cards'

The strong, selfless & wise leader protects the weak
It's 'Motherly love', not unlike Mother Earth, where almost everything is provided to humankind
A weakling can only make matters worse
In chaos, there is order & truths shall prevail
No amount of inheritance can make a person smarter nor wiser

From the ashes, rise the Phoenix

Money cannot chase away fears nor "extinguish" it ; Fear must be conquered

When you feel, or your gutfeel tells you, something is wrong, chances are "you are correct"
Blind loyalty is suicidal
Groupthink without conscience is "selfishness in motion"
The is no one best solution as human has a complex mind
How will you ever believe that everyone thinks alike all the time? Believe in yourself

乱世出英雄

This is just the beginning of 2020 & there is already acute challenges
Like everything else, life will be back to normal ...but, not so soon
Disruptions equal opportunities
Leveling down in this distorted ecosystem empowers the commonmen
GOD has a way of redistributing 'equality'
Like all major changes, something good will evolves

Lie low when your chips are low
Good days shall return but it is as good when you are around
Dead man tell no tales
Keep calm, remain healthy
Some day soon, the Light of hopes shall manifest

2020 & The Decade Ahead

new year and new decade ahead ...

By late 2019, I postulate that in 2020, the world will remain uncertain within the first 6 months and shall see the worst by 3rdQtr, with recovery towards end 2020.

Brexit, trade wars, HK and SCSeas are fast accepted as new normal. Even, whatever happened to Taiwan's election can only be better.

As for investment, my favorite was, and still is gold. Investments in equity is strictly on the blue chips which reflect daily necessities, basic needs fulfillment, commodities, AI, eCommerce & eSolutions and logistics. Banks are a little tricky but be selective.  

For the adventurous, 5% - 10% can be invested in non-liability & penny stocks.

Not a day passes without threats of violence and wrath of Nature. I am not concerned about the madness of violence and threats around the world; what will snowball into major conflicts are some mad men/women pulling the triggers. You need level-minded leaders and stable military hands to prevent a castrophe.

Globalization will be transformed from one-on-one to permanency following the implementation of OBOR initiatives:

1.0 Interstate and direct Free Trade Agreements between Nations

2.0 Free Trade Agreements between Economic Blocs or Group of Nations

3.0 Belt-Road Initiatives (BRI) 先建路桥港

【条条大路通罗马】The physical linking of roads, bridges and ports allow more permanency of trades and logistics greased exchanges

China's One Belt, One Road (OBOR - 2013) initiatives will serve to concretize the world of commerce, estimated at $43trillion (2016) 

Globally, China stands tall in eCommerce, ePayments & eSolutions plus her intents to introduce the crypto-exchange and YuanCoin will further booster OBOR -  a global-centric platform providing FinTech, blockchain crypto-solutions, bridging resources, assets and eBanking.

Globalization will find a natural linear solution in OBOR全球化（商业）将成为线性一条龙方案

 
Barring any unforeseen, the next growth cycle should be Asian-centric and China will be the lead player.

On a personal note, medicine and medical treatment will rise. Stay healthy and have a happy mind as it soothes the heart and improve the quality of life. Worries do not solve problems.
What if problems repeatedly surface? Well, it's either the solution didn't work, was unsustainable or the problem manifest. You can be concerned but need not worries; sometimes it just fade away.

Man proposes, GOD disposes

健康就是本钱 有了健康万事能 钱买不到健康也没人可以帮你受苦