This Time It's Different - Wealth Preservation

strip off emotions & everything is the same...

This time it's different. Sure, every time "it is different", not just this time

Humans are creatures of habit, familiarity and comfort

Do not make promises when are happy nor 'spout offensive phrases' when you are angry & outrage

In euphoria, like any runaways, no one wishes to be distracted at the party nor be forceably removed 

Randomness is a norm in the market although trending allow for easier buy/sell trades

In a rising trend, even fools make money. Traders loss big when correction is abrupt & fell cliff-like especially those who are geared 

Win big, loss big

Passive investments gain most over the long term

Major bank-based money managers and fund managers are able to show you their higher returns over the long run. Why? During the (sudden) down swing, those (highly) geared investors' positions are forced-sold if they are not able to place extra funds to buttress their lost values while new depositors/investors are enticed to put fresh funds to invest during the dips

A fool is born everyday

Each failure brings you nearer to success is no different from the wealthy Lord telling the poor "do not worry too much, you will make it some day" ~ hollow, but motivational, words 

Realities are cruel yet brutal 

In the moneyed world, if you are wiped out, you are out; plausibly bankrupted too 

If you cannot achieve your KPIs, your company cannot retain and continue paying you (forever) 

When the company is in the red, cost cutting meant that the rank & file plus a few managers will be retrenched, not the top management

Some words are pleasing but sweet nothings 

Let no one talks you into oblivion; fairy tales and make believes are lovely 

 Success breeds further successes  

StockMarket ~ A page in reflection

WallStreet and European markets indices are defying 'logic' & are challenging new highs with oft heard "this time it's different!" - aberration, newfound confidence or herd instincts? Gravity and fair valuation will return when euphoria ends 

Tulip mania (1630-37), The Great Depression (1929-36) & Dot.Com (2000-02) ~ When you reach the peak, the next choice is down

In the meantime, China, in particular, Hong Kong (HSI) stockmarkets are showing signs of recovery with relatively cheaper valuation compared to the West. HSI has recovered from near lows [four bear years] of 16,000pts in 2023 & 2024 to recent high of near 26,000pts. There are clear signs of divergence in HSI's  [rising] RSI & MACD [turning down]

Will this time be any different? Your guess is as good as mine

Preservation of capital is the key in investment when market's near high 

Taking profits, preserving capital and 'wait to fight another day' serve well when uncertainties reign 

Perhaps, it is time to redirect attention to commodities such as gold, silver and oil - it ain't over until the fat girl sings

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

Financial Humours

 

A Learned Master shared with me:  

Bank is the smartest ~ you keep money with it, it lends out 80%, makes some & give you some. But, if it fails, you loss everything & the Bank restart as a new Bank 

Insurance Co is the biggest scam - everyone pays into a pool & share the risks, with a promise that you will be covered & reimbursed in case of an event happening, eg, sickness. But, if the eventuality happened & there aren't enough to pay, it conveniently folds up

Brokerages [commodity & stocks] provide a safe platform to buyers and sellers for a fee, say 1%. Has it occurred to you that if the transactions continue for 50times, at 1% charge @each transaction, your $1 is zeroised 

[The market capitalization of the U.S. stock market is approximately $62.8 trillion as of July 1, 2025, representing the total value of all publicly traded companies in the United States. If a crisis of sorts happens & the market drops 30%, where did the $18.84 trillions go to? ~ transferred, erased, or...]

Stock markets [indices] are not a mathematical problem where 1+1=2. It is the aggregate of emotional responses to events and happenings

When ideas or opinions are propounded, they are not the 'sure to happen thing' but collections of "IFs" & "BUTs" events; any occurrences will lead to a 'presumably expected conclusion', not lateral though 

No two fairly similar events may lead to a fairly similar outcomes; 9/11, the Oklahoma City bombing 1995, the 1997/8 Asian Financial Crisis, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, SARs, COVID ... but the magnitude and impact differ vastly

Will the next crisis, if any, be any different? Every financial crisis is about MONEY & it is about the losers vs the winners ~ the transfer of monies & elimination of digits [in everyone's accounts]; nominally your real purchasing power  

I have expressed reservations that WallStreet, with AI-tech, will offer uninterrupted power to drive prices higher but met with "this time it's different" ~ this reminded me that "all bettors at the race course know which horses will win & bet big but after the races, they knew why that anointed horse did not win!" ...

Market is filled with humorous players who are smart & logical but parts with their monies like any fools will  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September - Stay Safe

data seldom lie but are easily manipulated...

In 2000, at DotCom peak, WallStreet P/E was 44x; it corrected 78% to it's low before market stabilized and recovered  

In 2007/8, P/E was near 30x and market corrected 59%

Back in 1929 to 1932, market corrected 89% ... today's WallStreet P/E is >37x ... [???]   

Every time at or near peaks, investors said "this time is different...!" Will this time be any different? Can you stomach this; the total market capitalization of the top two U.S. companies is higher than the total market cap of Japan as of 2025. [Japan's total market capitalization was over $6.3 trillion, while the combined market capitalization of the two largest U.S. companies (*NVIDIA and Microsoft) exceed $6.7 trillion

*Nvidia - the 4trillion company ~ after 5-Qtrs of triple-digit expansion in 2023/4, revenue dipped 69% in 1Q/2025 

Like Warren Buffet, who had divested and kept cash of $344bil, Li Ka-Shing had divested lots of their investments and converted into cash(??) ~ are there common grounds or lots of underlying commonsense. [Berkshire Hathaway has significantly increased it's stakes in Japan's five largest trading houses: Mitsui & Co, Mitsubishi Corp, Sumitomo Corp, Itochu, and Marubeni ~ guess, this is food security

I am not an alarmist but trying to learn from history 'the causes of money movements' & which are the preferred asset classes to invest or avoid especially when previous tops are challenged

In uncertainty, stay calm, slow down, observe and analyse - when the mind wonders, let it wonder. Move only your forward path clears

Money matters & no money never matter

Let go & force nothing; you can add any material well-being but you cannot add time to your life

Life is always shifting and do not 'gamble' away your health and wealth 

Let your life carry you forward  

I am being cautious in this uncertain time and has minimized exposures to the capital market, not out of fear but preservation of the little that I have ~ my 'living capital' as some will call it "working capital"

Cultivate an investment mind, no speculative thoughts

There is time for everything; be prepared & ready 

Stay safe: enjoy peace and a less quarrelsome world 

September is here - what have you achieved? Whatever you have done, a wrong decision will [or may] lock you in for a long time   

 

 

 

 

Live Happily & Healthily

no expectations, no disappointments ...

Perfection is the surest way to frustration

Perfection is like ideal; it keeps changing ~ the artist knows best

Knowledge is like a flow... it keeps changing as new things emerge and are discovered

Letting go eases the heart and relieves the mind

Happiness glows from within when the heart lightens - do not let little doubts bottled up 'into a storm' 

Air 气 has weight & takes up space:  生气 ~ 赌气 Anger & frustration occupy the mind and make you uncomfortable & less stable

When water flows is blocked, it shifts ~ from rivers to tributaries ~ water flows will never stagnate 

Free your mind and let it wonders

When in doubts or troubled, take a break ~ take a walk in the woods 木 or climb a mountain 山

The Chinese characters are pictorially representative - Add human 人 to wood 木 , you get rest 休. Add human 人 to mountain 山， you get fairy 仙 [happiness]  

Lotus grow well in muddy waters, bathe with abundant sunlight and dance in the breeze ~ Nature has a way to create picturesque miracles

As our mind relaxes, it releases endorphins and enhanced cognitive functions 

A balanced mind, body and Soul manifests

Walk away when the heat gathers; fire burns and maims - when you can't take the heat, walk out of the kitchen

Enjoy the beauty of life 

Slow down and smell the fragrance of flowers, listen to the birds tweeting and singing, bathe in the cool breeze soothing the mind & enjoy 'next to nothingness' and peace  
 

Money don't buy health

We work to live and not live to work [slaves]

Make enough [money], make more while you can and hoard sufficiently such that you have a choice to 'not' work    

When you find meanings to/in life, money is often not definitive but some intangible ideals

Giving [away] is a blessing 施舍 ~ 有舍就有得 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Spirit & The Stockmarkets

to wait is not a solution but to act needs lots of motivation ...

Is age an obstacle? No, defeats are! When you haven't seen nor tasted success for too long yet you encounter more defeats, you become dispirited, your prowess decline & your drives are disrupted ~ worse, a cliff-like fall

Many say "it is darkest before dawn (breaks)" but darkness can be cold, draining and threatening

You can work the hardest, try every avenues opened, make extensive enquiries but the wall of resistance is enough to drive you crazy ["up the walls"] 

How to overcome the Wall of Resistance? Climb over, bash it down, 'pray for it's disappearance', razed it to the ground... Omigosh! with low batt & being thoroughly dispirited, these are tall orders   

I will walk through, walk over and walk across; GOD willing, I will succeed

Sunrise, sunset, incoming tides and outgoing waves, day vs night ~ tough times don't last, tough people do

I shalt mark my time and recharge, reroute [if necessary], recover and seek Nature's rejuvenation ~ ride bicycle, workouts, play games, take long aimless-walks & immerse into the universe [ecosystem] - go with the flow

Time is the best antidote   

Along the way; I shall see, learn & adapt; I maybe down but NOT out 

Uncertainties are threats as they are opportunities but abrupt changes disrupt

The stock market is where money change hands expeditiously & where everyone wants to make money but few wants to do homework - patience and diligence pay handsomely

The recent aberrations in many stockmarkets where new highs are created despite over-valuations, excessively high multiples/PEs, more insiders [owners] sales, slowed economy[ies], protectionism, regrouping of economics groups and political discourse but caution is thrown to the winds though those are fair indications of "indifference to reality & of lost tribes following the herds"    

Markets reward the brave but punish the 'headless' followers ~ the 4-Quarterly cyclical turning point [low] is due very soon

Will the many brave stock#confident#souls be smiling when September arrives? Time will tell... 

I am no brave person but, like the swordsmith, I have forged fine swords over fiery flames, hammer and the anvil - the scars of yesterday are today's reminders

Timing the [stock]market is an Art, not a science - in the very long run, those listed companies, if they remained operational, their prices rise simply because of inflation, profits aside, ceteris paribus

August is denoted as "respected and impressive, consecrated by augury or auspicious - will this August be any different? I guess, this fiery, hottest August will 'burn' 

Patience and more patience; I need to ride out this burning, stop-abort-start season where expectations breed disappointments 

Some day soon, 'Spring will return in Autumn' 

 

 

Stockmarkets Timing Is Arts, Not a Science ~ Be Aware & Beware

the more uncertainties, the more opportunities 危机 & volatility...

Many stock markets had tested new highs recently

The investable assets classes; equities, bonds, mutual funds, cryptos, collectibles, properties, others, are 'in a flux'      

P.Trump manage to disrupt the global economics equations 101 and shred normal agreements with his Executive Orders in his attempts to MAGA ~ Make America Great Again ~ the world economic norms will never be the same again    

Alternative group, BRICS, has grown into a mature grouping capable of resetting globalization protocol and repositioning trade flows and orders - businesses are done by & between friends, with consistency in applications, rules and protocols. A refresh universal financial settlement is evolving. 

Businesses seek fair exchange, reliable counterparts, more certainty & not stagnancy and avoid protectionism & unequal demands. 

WATCH OUT for the next turning point around mid-August/early September ... need not be alarmed [as timing the market is an art, not a science]

Indices       Year 2010 [+ - Low]  52weeks [Low]     [High]        Week ending [27Jul]  [23 Aug]

S&P 500        1,000pts                         4,835              6,315            6,388                           6,466

DJIA              7,800pts                         36,611            45,053          44,901                         45,631

NASDAQ      1,500pts                         14,784           20,980          21,108                         21,496

STI                 1,600pts                         3,198               4,192            4,261                           4,253

FTSE 100       4,000pts                         7,544               9,017            9,120                           9,321

NIKKEI 225  10,200pts                       30,792           40,852           41,456                        42,633

HS Index        13,000pts                       16,441          24,874           25,388                        25,339

KLSE                 890pts                         1,386             1,684             1,533                         1,597

ASX 200         4,500pts                         7,169             8,776             8,666                         8,967

TaiEx              8,000pts                         17,306         23,383           23,364                       23,764

SSE Comp      3,200pts                        2,689             3,674            3,593                         3,825

SZSE Comp    1,100pts                        2,144             2,342            2,200                        2,393

Thai SET         1,000                             1,154             1,695            1,217                       1,253

Gold               US$1,500                       US$2,351     US$3,485    US$3,3335          US$3,418

Oil                  US$80                            US$55          US$80            US$65                 US$ 63.66

Market moves in cycles [cyclical]  

This chart is only for broad guide

Typically, there is a 4-year cycle, for eg, 1972, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024... For the longer term, 60-years cycle are applicable 

Annually, the quarterly lows are: January, April, July, October 

In my early 2025 write-up, I mentioned a possible fall in markets in March/April and it happened ~ luck or coincidence? Trace back pkweksh.blogspot.com & discover... Time-cycle analysis, EWTheory, fibonacci numbers & other technical skillsets are utilized to project possibilities

Examples of investment manias are the Dutch Tulip Mania and the Dot-com bubble where sharp crashes exposed the unsustainable levels due to unsustainable valuation; will the 'overvalued' AI/Tech & Crypto/Blockchain be next? Time will tell  

The recent new highs in various stock markets are, at best, aberrations ~ feel good, ignored realities, getting used to trumpery & complacency

Value investing will save the day; it is not about dumping your investments but how to identify &/or switch to fair(ly) valued investments and take profits [cash out ~ nobody goes broke by taking profits] from over valued stuffs  

The last Qtr, typically late Q3/early Q4, provides the widest margin for gains & losses 

In 2nd-Half, 2025,  re-rating, repositioning & reevaluating of markets to reflect protectionism, geopolitical discombobulation, deep distrust and a possible 'Black Swan' event 

Take/Book your profits for traders & await for re-entry! What if the market continues to rise after you had exited? Do your homework and position yourself; enjoy your winnings instead ...

Long term traders & investors are like art collectors ~ need no advice 

Finally, many indices [stockmarkets] are experiencing all-time/new highs but the fundamentals have, in effect, gotten worse. This is what James Dines famously quipped "everyone is ready to loss!" 

When you make good money, donate some to charities ... 

If you loss, blame it on the Black Swan

 

 

 

 

 

Success Comes When It's Due

there is a time for everything...

Be patient ~ it is not a choice but a necessity

You cannot rush to complete a/any tasks - when the butterfly evolves from the pupa, you can't help to break the hardened shell. The wings are wet and it takes time to dry. Any humanly assistance & intervention will kill the butterfly. Nature has her way to morph

A woman can be pregnant and gives birth to a baby in nine months but you can't make nine women pregnant and deliver the babies tomorrow

When the body is weak & feeble, it takes time to heal

The world is dynamic, cyclical and evolving - no two situations will end up with similar outcomes, even identical twins differ

天时地利人和也要幸运 

When the going is rough, move aside & away from the paths of the ill-winds, rest & lie low 

Fighting against untempered challenges and swimming against the tides are the surest way to 'suicide'

Anger, confrontation when provoked, frustration and the eagerness to push ahead at all costs will invariably fail ~ history only record dead heroes

There are lots of critics and 'talkers' but "brick & stones break bones", not words
 

Not everyone is a friend & many love to see you 'fail & collapse' but everyone loves a Winner  

Every winner faces more challengers; taking down the winner is the ultimate trophy 

The DOER is not unlike the baker; he makes & mixes the dough, ready the oven, put the readied dough into it, manage the temperature & retrieve the bread when done

Time is the best arbiter

Don't let others 'talk you down' neither do you need to fight whatever is beyond you & against reality

Stress and anxieties are self-imposed leading to depression and feelings of uselessness

Walk away when the heat overwhelms and returns when you are able, capable and ready to manage

Believe in yourself and time is definitive to see successful fruition  

   

 

Crystalling The Financial (Stock) Markets

money ~ always not enough ...

It has been a turbulent and unpredictable 6 months but opportunities 危机 aplenty.  It's 25th June, 2025 ~ sharing the following observations:

Gold - expect to test 3800-4200 for the year 

Crude Oil - trading range 65-85

Bitcoin - expect peaking near 120,000

DJIA - likely to test and surpassed [all time high] 45,073. Resistance 47,000 ~ for market timing fans, all bets off by end Aug/early Sep 

S&P 500 - to test 6147 & surpass. Unlikely to break 6400

Nasdaq - To test 21000. If breakout, upside 25000

STI - tough resistance near 4100

HangSeng HSI - Trading range 23000-25000 

KLSE Bursa - Resistance 1720   

Traders - take profits and exit markets by mid-Aug/early Sep 2025

 

Miracles Happen Daily When The Time Is Ripe

 go with the flow ...

There are many different ways to achieve your goal, not necessarily by force or bold actions; blend into the ecosystem with natural responsiveness & perseverance  

Too much Yang阳 [hardness] create less flexibility whereas Yin阴 [soft] allows for malleabilty, adaptability and receptivity 以柔制刚

Be subtle, adaptable and sensual; talk less, plan enough and need not think too much. Whatever shalt come, will come

Realities are not potentials - be nimble, be like water   

The able leader is able to delegate & only need to watch over his brood as they grow & manifest

Open up and allow attraction to find you instead 姜太公钓鱼 愿者上钩

Be patient and mindful and let fortunes find you; trust your gut feel... widen your perspective and watch others lead while you make observation and conserve energy. Expect the unexpected and be opened to new angles to solutions & leadership

Water source and rivers changed their flows over time; be the ocean to receive [water]. Be spontaneous and natural  

Feelings of fearful apprehension is a sign of  'being forewarned, be aware and to avoid'; stay clear when in doubts but be alert and prepared. Walk away if necessary

Water cuts through steel and stones

天时地利人和 运转乾坤

When stillness and movements meet, harmony is achieved without contrivance nor great effort like the return of Spring

Be yourself; chase no vanity, claim no fame nor praise and free yourself from bondage. Lie low & nurture virtue from within oneself 先学做人后做事   Enjoy quiet perseverance stoically

Withdraw and retreat into safe heaven to watch and observe and avoid incurring hateful retaliation but remain steadfast and firm

Be resolute and fear not; kindness is not weakness & maintain readiness and caution & remain resolute 

When opportunity presents, be genuine, pounce but be humble without making a show of it. Be discrete and subsist by refusing glaring credits

Avoid troublesome, calculative, scheming and difficult people ~ slowdown, observe, pick and choose ~ there is no free meal

Never fight when you are weak and unsure... 

Wait, wait & WAIT; there is a time for everything 顺天命 随天意

 It isn't over till the fat lady sings

Live Happily In Turbulent Times

differing flairs & strokes are enablers to ease life pressures...   

When you are under 20yo, there is no stress except you need to study well & learn some skill sets

Well, the teens call this period the Generation-Gap! The only gap is income gap where their parents earned and pay for their education and growing up years while they do next to nothing but 'paid' to study & learn

When you start working to make a living, it is too late to reminisce the easy under 20yo

Growing up, unlike the flow of water, never [seldom] backflow 

Rivers can experience temporary backflow, often due to tidal action or weather events, like strong winds or heavy rainfall which can cause rivers to temporarily flow backward & geological events, like earthquakes or landslides, not unlike river reversals; these actions are not normal

Man can only live and act forward

Whatever happen, some routes are necessary in the journey towards better days; sufferings are subsets embedded to test your resolve

The first officially recognized sub-10 second 100m sprint was achieved by Jim Hines at the 1968 Summer Olympics in Mexico City, with a time of 9.95 seconds. Between then and now, 190 persons had done under 10sec, with the current record of 9.58 seconds set by Usain Bolt in 2009; a monumental achievement 

Victory is sweet but how much sacrifices and effort were expended and pains pricked and tears fell before the fruits of achievements crystalize

Ultimately, the successful ~ politicians, entrepreneurs, artistes, chefs, whoever... ~ never talk about their failures and sufferings. WHY? Successful people have no time to waste over 'spilled water'; their goal is to SUCCEED & success speak loudest

Be yourself ~ you are unique

Stress, depression, distressed, anxieties and mental disorientation occur when you seek perfection

Fighting for rights and equality are ideals, not readily available to the poor, weak and frail 

In any uncomfortable and stressful situations, seek to minimize all comforts, eat enough to live, speak less(er), stay healthy, remained cheerful & stay alive - live best while others live worst - await your opportunity 

Anything, and in any environment, that are beyond your control, go along and go with the flow - do not swim against the tides

Live to fight another day

Be positive, remain sane and calm

For the better or worse, everything changes over time - when you are at your lowest, there can only be a 'turn around & uptick'  

Before SG's GE25, there were loads of dissatisfaction, complaints, ideas origination and suggestions, cries of struggles and screams of indignation but the outcome were starkly different: >65% supported the existing environment and policies

What above had demonstrated were: in period of uncertainties, people prefer to stick to the "known & usual" than to seek new routes and change 

The determination & capability to survive vary

Live like the willow tree that dance in the storm and await the passing of the ill-winds than the grand oak tree that fell

Retreat into the wilderness and enjoy the carefree universe

When you walk away from the crowd, peace returns

Many worry about 'what others say or think of them', 'wait for a better time', 'tolerate the innuendoes', 'live up to another's expectation', 'become a worries [mental garbage] dump'...

Not too long after you're gone, nobody remembers you

But, BUT... if your time is not up, you will not die. Henceforth, it is best to live a fruitful & fulfilling life

Live now. Live the very moment as tomorrow is never promised  活在当下 明天和意外不懂哪个先到

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Live Well & Be Happy, Don't Worry

feeling free eases life pressures...

When you feel lost, disoriented, sad and/or uncomfortable with your surroundings, the people and the ecosystem, venture into the forest, the beach, the sea, mountain top and... anywhere where you allow your mind to go free 

Free from encumbrances and free from your physical bondage

Listen to the waves lapping onto the shores, the songs the sea birds sing

Enjoy the clear, uncluttered sky and the soothing breeze

Dive deep into, & reminisce, the past, the younger days, the fleeting innocent mischief and the wanton disregards to youthful foolishness

Contrary; you only die once & live for as long as your entitlement allows

Being hardworking, committed, enthusiastic and diligent must be your *second Nature, no "IFs", no "BUTs"

My friend reminded me that between Luck and Opportunity, it is 51% Luck and 49% Opportunity on the road to success

Grab the opportunity and apply your *second Nature, the rest will fall into place. If you don't succeed, you gain experiences

If you don't action it and never try, you have zero chances of success

The youthful innocence and mischief, the foolish challenges, the 'dares' and the 'never#say#die" attitude were not without risks but you live to tell "the story"

Everyone rushes to the end [of life]

Mayflies are considered to have the shortest lifespans of any animal, typically living only one day

Bowhead whales: These whales are among the longest-living mammals, with some individuals living for over 200 years and the Giant tortoises: some giant tortoises can live for over 150 years

Human live averagely to 80 years old; few have the fortune to live beyond 100yo

Live & enjoy every moment 酸甜苦辣 天天难过天天过

The stress of life and living can be avoided. We work to live [earnings] & do not live to work [slavery]. When the chips are low, lie low; be thrifty and stretch your dollars

Everyone is created unique & has a role in his life [time]

There are enough food to feed the world population if there are no hoarding and wastage

GOD created Man to enjoy life, not to slave & suffer

It is Man's ego, greed, self-entitlement and selfishness that created sufferings and poverty; the need to control and dominate will end with destruction

Stress caused depression, anxieties, wasting and cutting short of many lives

The rich cannot live in a sea of poor; if the poor don't cultivate & produce food, the rich cannot eat their money ~ money is a means to an end and not an end in itself

In this uncertain period, keep pace, don't rush, enjoy the peace and lie low. Let the ill-wind blow pass. Money can buy many things but not all - have enough to get by

Like the tides, and day & night, nothing is finite amidst cyclical ... free your mind & live the moments as best you can ~  There is no fear in anything that is beyond our control

I stay within GOD's shelter 避风塘  & trust HE will handle the rest & give me the best