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Wednesday, April 30, 2008

May Day, Mayday - Costs of Living

Well, what happens to the cost of living? Nothing much, it just get higher.

Commodities prices have risen sharply due to the fear; a fear of shortages. Typically, price rise will abate after two, or maybe by the third, cycles of harvest. This is because as prices rise, it pays to plant more of the lucrative crops given the similar plot of land.

However, this time around, the effect is deadlier as the cost push factors, like higher fuel and labour costs, were compounded by demand pull factors, that is, hoarding and massive buying, improved affordability of huge consumer nations like China and India; the fear of shortages!

Is there anything that can be done to lessen the impact of price rises? Nothing much too.

Some Governments try to alleviate and lessen the struggle to survive by assisting with a redistribution of income as income gap widens and a thinning purchasing power. This will lessen the pain and reduce the possibility of occurrence of social unrest as the saying goes "a hungry man is an angry man". This is not to suggest the implementation of some welfare schemes but that the man in the street can make a decent living and get on with their lives.

Most citizens are happy to get on with lives and live with what they can afford. Luxury is a relative term. The fact remains that the basic need must be met and luxury and ostentatious living are for people who wants, and is able and capable, to take the challenges of fast and fine living.

Higher costs of living is here to stay. Be ready to adapt and live within ones means. Happiness cannot be bought but it lives in our souls; you have a choice.

Of course, it is always helpful to have some help readily available but in the end, its "GOD helps those who help themselves".

I further guess the increased costs of living had made Singapore, and Singaporeans, a less tolerant society.

It is disturbing to read some recent headlines like "jail the drink drivers, cane them", "stiffer punishment for jaywalkers", "punish the errant smokers"; what has become of our society? Ungracious? Impatient? Or plain 'gun slinger' who shoots from the hips?

There are sufficient punishment, rules and Laws to keep the situation within allowable limits as no society, and no one, is perfect. I know for a fact that many smokers have cut down on smoking and some have given up, not because smoking is expensive, but because it is more inconvenient to find a place for a puff with the widening restriction on areas where smoking is allowed.

I am also aware that many who drinks opts for public transport than to drive as the enforcement of rules is evenly applied.

What about jaywalkers?

I am sure many of us treasure our lives and will not run into an oncoming traffic. By and large, the general public observe traffic rules and jaywalking is the exception rather than the norm.

Well, if anyone suggest zero tolerance for minor infringements, our society will evolve into one of elitist, selfish, self-serving lot; where the rule of the jungle applies!

The world tomorrow is not going to be a better nor easier place to live. Let us help our fellow citizens to inculcate better social manners through education and encouragement rather than to 'gun' them down everytime a minor infringement occurs.

Communal bonding, understanding and assistance will help brew a harmonious society; not one that punishes at the slightest error. Let us be economical in punishment and be generous with encouragement and education.

One last note - employment, unemployment or underemployment?

Jobs creation have increased and so has unemployment; isn't this contradicting? Well, again, not really!

There is a structural shift in employment patterns and the displaced workers may not be able to fit into a new or unrelated industry overnight. Training and re-training are just possibilities and that take time too.

Also, there is the challenge to accept lower expectation and status, not to mention lower salaries. Some choose to be contractual workers and live with being employed, or underemployment, whilst others shy away completely. The economy is dynamic and everchanging and it cannot, and will not, stop to wait for you to hop on the 'workers bandwagon'. Somehow, somewhere and someone will fill the vacancies; be it local or foreigners. Be ready to change and adapt.

No one owes you a living and no one will force you to take any jobs; you have a choice.

Correct me if I am wrong; I remember, in the old days, alot of Nantah and Poly graduates, and the (academically) lesser educated, go on to become entrepreneurs and are self-employed and they made it good. Why? It was because at that time, Singapore U graduates are in better demand in the employment market compared to them and they prove their worth by striking out. Be encouraged.

Make the move while you are able and capable to.

Rest if you must but never quit. Let us prod ourselves up, be self-motivated and be the best within our own abilities.

Above all be happy.

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Wisdom ...

Subject: WISDOM

Wisdom is ...

Far and few in between
Learning from books and other people's mistakes without soiling the Soul
Not lying to ourselves when the facts hurt yet "taking the bull by its horns"
Believing in God yet working towards our chosen goal as 'God helps those who helps themselves'
Carrying on all tasks with enthusiasm and zeal without supervision
Not giving excuses but armed with reasons when failure looms; best of all, turning challenges into successes
Not choosing soft options when the going is tough 'coos tough time don't lasts; tough people do
Finding alternative solutions without undermining the path to successes as solutions lie within the problems
Resting and slowing down but not giving up; rest if you must but never quit
Knowing what's right, doing what's right and avoiding the temptation of shortcuts
Knowing when to quit; like quiting at the top
Winning most of the time and not all the time
Being calm, happy and light hearted whilst still stuck in the 'eye of the storm'
Knowing when to say sorry
Patience, patience and more patience

... nevertheless, I am still searching & learning

authored by
Wizard

Brain or blanks

Whats on your shoulder, shouldnt be :

* A burden you carry
* A 'chip on the shoulder'
* Today's stress
* Others problems
* Dark secrets
* Lies & half-truth
* Envy & hatred

Whats on your shoulder should be

* Nothing less than a cool, wise, thinking head
* Well projected by a smily, happy face
* Forever radiant
* Always calm, humble, generous
* With abundance of justice and righteousness

And That Is The BRAIN

Whatever make we are, size and color, GOD had given us the ultimate gift; the ability to think & decide our courses in life.

[I dedicate this to all my FRIENDS who at one time or another passes my life; I wish you WELL!]

author
Wizard

Give yourself a moment to Walk Away

Subject: Walk Away ...



Walk Away from ...

Anger; nothing good can come out of anger.
Take a deep breathe, stroll by the sea, listen to music and let the soul free!

Temptation; take a wrong step and you are at the deep end.
The forbidden apple's sweetest but the result will hound you!

Greed; you will not fall for the bait by walking away.
Whatever is not yours, was never meant to be!

Envy; its the devil's ultimate of jealousy.
Envy destroys the self and your ability be rational!

Hurt; its painful but not impossible and healing will come over time.
Leave the heart open and God fills it with boundless blessings!

Quarrels; as no
good words will come out of a fiery contest.
It only widen the gap to solutions!

Hatred; the heart can never heals if burried in misery.
Let go and let live, somehow, somewhere, someday the heart will glow again!

But, don't Walk Away from friends. Real friends are far and few in between: probably your ten fingers can are too many for you to account for Real Friends!



author:
Wizard

Stockmarket - bulls, bears & sheep

Written in Jan 08 & still fairly relevant... read to discover


Introduction

After a turbulent August 2007, both Bernanke and Bush threw lifelines to starve off a potentially contagious 'financial plague' that threatens to undermine the world financial order; nonetheless both emphasized that their actions were not aimed at bailing out investors who had made bad decisions.

President Bush went further to say that its "a repricing of risks"."It's not the government's job to bail out speculators or those who made the decision to buy a home they knew they could never afford," Bush said in the Rose Garden (30/8/07).

Subprime is by all definitions not subnormal - the extent of potential damage is still being assessed. Interest rates were lowered to cushion and stabilize the slide in the stockmarket whilst Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) were allowed to take equity stakes in some established financial groups affected by the Subprime debacle.

By last quarter 2007, Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) from Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Russia, Saudi Arabia and China bought *stakes in Citibank, Merrill Lynch, Barclays, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, UBS; just to name afew.

*not all are results of subprime

SWF is expected to reach US$8 trillion by 2011. Interestingly, about 50% of London Stock Exchange is owned by Qatar and Dubai today.

The Stockmarket

Was the stockmarket fall a technical correction or the worst is yet to be?

Lets revisit some issues;

i) Any increase in interest rate in Japan is likely to raise anxieties of Yen carry trades

Unwinding of Yen carry trades require the delicate balance of interest and (currencies) exchange rates. The inherent weakness of the US$ is uneasy subset of the unwinding process.

ii) US Subprime mortgage loans 'bubble' were pricked, the exact figure is still unknown

The full blown subprime effect is yet to be felt and the numbers has yet to be fully quantified. Piecemeal solutions, like lowering of interest rate, bailouts and fixing of interest rates by FannieMae and MannieMae will only slow the impact but not resolve the real issues.

Of course, there is a harboured hope that such actions will inject some sanity and stability into the debacle and restore confidence.

Will history gives us any leads?

The U.S. economy after the 1920s and that of Japan in the 1990s were instances where the period of credit expansion lasted several years, largely involving real estate speculation, and came to involve much of the population, whether that meant plunging into American stocks with borrowed money in 1929 or buying Tokyo condos with 100-year mortgages in the late 1980s.

iii) Oil nears US$100

In absolute terms, oil looks expensive at current price but it is not that threatening if we factor in inflation and a weakened US$ (exchange rate)

iv) Emergence of China and India in the world market order

China is the workshop of the world while India provides the technical support & knowledge. Both had provided fairly cheap solutions and products over the years. However, costs had crept up in recent years. Vis-a-vis qualititative expectations, they are no longer cheap producers.

Consumers will have to pay higher prices to continue enjoying their current consumption patterns or demand will fall due to rising prices. As such profits, if any, will fall with a rise in the cost of production and current Price Earning (P/E) floats upwards making the investee companies less attractive

v) Uneven and unexpected flows of 'Hot money' or 'Liquidity flush funds'

The love-hate relationship of US$ vis-a-vis other currencies lends further uncertainties to the world market.Will the smart money flows to safe-haven Euro or Asian Markets (where their currencies is expected to appreciate against the US$) whose cost efficient companies outperform their US counterparts? If so, it will be double whammy to US; a selldown on US stocks will affect US. Coupled with properties loans defaults, unemployment rises and consumption drops ... the vicious cycle will push US into a recession! Alas! the world is ever so dependent on US as the lead consumer nation.

vi) Social order

The widening rich-poor gap threatens social order and is potentially a destabilizing factor to market at large. This is further exacerbated by increase costs of living; it will be an ultimate nightmare it the world hits stagflation in the interim.

I belief the market is experiencing a readjustment from the excessive consumption pattern and an inflated price situation boosted by cheap and easy credit. The earlier the disarrange demand and supply is restored to order, the earlier the market will enjoy an equilibrium and confidence restored.

Technically Speaking

There is no prize for guessing the correct number in the indices. The following are my 'guesswork':

Current Support LongTerm Support Remarks

STIC 3437 3200 2800 Sell into strength

HangSeng 27519 26000 20000 =same=

KLSE 1466 1250 1000 =same=

DJIA 12800 12500 11300 =same=


2008 is a volatile year for index traders.


The Stockmarket, the Sun & the Moon

There is an uncanny correlationship between the Solar Eclipse (market has a tendency to move up) and the Lunar Eclipse (market has a tendency to fall) - especially if the eclipse is total - as can be seen in the recent Lunar Eclipses in March & August 2007 (its been fairly similar since I began tracking eclipses in 1980s).

In year 2008, the following are interesting dates to watch:

7/2/08 Annular Solar Eclipse
21/2/08 Total Lunar Eclipse
1/8/08 Total Solar Eclipse
16/8/08 Partial Lunar Eclipse

Given a chance, exiting the market in any rally this year (probable occurrence during the Capricon Effect - typically beginning of the year) looks like the 'soundest' decision.

The bull, the bear and the sheep

The bulls ride the market to wealth; the bears short the indices to richness. And the sheep pay and watch the bulls and bears enrich themselves.

What do you think 2008 holds? Do share your opinions with me.

Wizard


(THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISE NOR ANY ATTEMPTS TO SWAY DECISIONS. IT SHOULD NOT, AND CANNOT, BE RELIED ON FOR MAKING ANY INVESTMENTS. IF IN DOUBTS, CONSULT YOUR OWN PROFESSIONALS FOR ADVISES; ITS FOR READING PLEASURE ONLY . ALL ABOVE INFORMATION & CONTENTS ARE WITHOUT PREJUDICE, UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED)

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