Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Election : Choice Or Chance

when sorrows end, life begins...

What's the beef about election & why the mass can never win?

“Elections belong to the people. It's their decision. If they decide to turn their back on the fire and burn their behinds, then they will just have to sit on their blisters.” ― Abraham Lincoln

Abraham Lincoln was right & will still be right! The people waited for a chance to reverse their misery but bought into "promises & cheap handouts"! There are no fools but idiots aplenty.

 
“When one with honeyed words but evil mind
Persuades the mob, great woes befall the state.” ― Euripides, Orestes

May the best Man or Woman wins: he/she who has a heart for the people & shares the dreams, fears, aspirations and goals of the commoners. Many are prepared to 'sell' the country, skip town and live in luxury with ill-gotten gains. The only hope is 'Man proposes, God disposes'
  
Finally


When push comes to shove, the commoners will 'chance a change'; afterall, it's misery without change. What can be worse?

Do not game the system.
Do not fiddle with others trusts
When it dawns on them that they have been taken for a ride, change can be abrupt and volatile
You can run but you cannot hide...someday, Karma will settles all 
 
No matter what happens, Fate is in your own hands. 
Cast your Vote; cast it right!
If you chose Apples, do not expect to harvest Oranges
Worse of all, if you spoil your vote, you harvest NOTHING
 
Tomorrow, yours and your kids future depends of your vote
It's less onerous to change via the ballot boxes
You have a choice
Yes! No! Do not leave your life to others

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Trading Made Easy - Stock Market

what goes up will come down; however & whatever efforts to artificially starved off the...

Stock markets, by extension economies, boom & bust. However, the uncanny cyclical timing of market lows is amazing. Stockmarket thrives on HOPE; the more hopeful & positive, the higher the rebound and uptrend. It measures from low to low (at every cycle).

On the other hand, commodity markets thrive on fears; the fear of shortage motivate increase demand which pushes prices higher. It measures from high to high as when fears evaporate, prices collapse

There is a peculiar quarterly (trading) cycle where prices rebound

Quarterly-Cycle - if you care to be patient, there's money to be made in a trading cycle

January - (Capricon effects)
April - (Corporate results)
July - (Mid-year portfolio reviews)
October - (Jupiter effect - typically a turbulent period)

January
April
July
October



4-Year Cycle - the 4-Year cycle reflect localize financial & debt problems. However, the magnitude may be so large that other nations may be affected. In today's context, globalisation has made everyone equally gullible.

2016 - ???
2012 - Global economic crisis @US
2008 - Global economic crisis @Euro 2007/08 (Lehman Brothers)
2004 - Post-SARS / Sub-Prime crisis
2000 - DotCom Bubble
1996 - Asian Financial crisis 1996/97
1992 - European currency crisis (Gulf War ~ Iraq/Kuwait) ~ Black Wednesday
1988 - Post-Black Monday @1987
1984 - New Zealand constitutional crisis/Philippines financial crisis/3rd World crisis
1980 - Collapsed of S&L
1976 - UK Debt crisis
1972 - Oil Crisis


10-Year Cycle - when the 10-Year cycle falls in tandem with the falling 4-Year cycle, the impact is multiplied

2017 - ???
2007 - Euro Financial Crisis 2007/08
1997 - Asia Financial Crisis
1987 - Stockmarket Crisis
1977 - Oil Crisis/UK Crisis

Forward Statement

* Everyone wants to make money but few wanna do their home work
* When even the aunties and non-learned make profits from the stockmarket, the market is due for a major correction.
* When the Press and the professional fund managers scream 'avoid/sell', it's about time to dabble
* When Government relaxes fiscal policies and liberalize the stock market, it's time to put your money in even in dull market

Conclusion

~ The world is treading into a recession and emotions are fairly negative. The next crisis is likely to be a 'currency crisis'. Military adventurism is less likely while we cannot discount a 'disease outbreak'.
~ Most stock markets are showing signs of topping up
~ While most Heads of Government know that "it is important to have a common support & rehabilitation of their economy" but different political inclination make reconciliation not quite possible.
~ With a global slowdown, coupled with weak commodity prices, deflation is the likely consequences

In the meanwhile, Happy trading on rebound & topping-up but be forewarned; the next drop may be heartbreaking and a wallet-hollowing experience.

Monday, July 13, 2015

Say Like It Is

change is the only constant...



Freedom of Speech ~ You have the right to Speak but after speaking you may not have the freedom you yearn

Truths ~ How much truths is/are there in the daily reports in MSM & the Social Media? It's a struggle to tell the difference...

The Elites, the Mid-class & the Commoners ~ India & China did away with their Maharajahs & Emperors; are we as classless as when we first started?

Relax: its monday blues lah! we are "sin ka po lang". All local borns

Poor & Dead-Poor ~ There is no poverty as there are no dead poors! I have never doubt that there are
Kueh.Lapis-type help available but these need to be dish-out more liberally and less intrusively. The pride and dignity of the poor need to be respected

Complain-Kings ~ Frankly, there are NO complain-kings! If you do not allow ventillation, it will implode. Listen to the 'shouts & pains of the commoners', spare some thoughts and be compassionate ; there are real needs and harsh issues

Trying their Best ~ The dominant party is trying their best to craft and extend help to the people (in needs) but how much was filtered down & how many did receive help and assistances? Or, how much was wasted (administrative costs) in the flows? Give and help with a HEART

What can be done to level the playing fields? Well, if you can't level up, level down. Making costs of living lower and cheaper help.

Above all, you have a right to choose. Do not choose A (plant rambutan) but expect to get B-type (durians) results...

Nobody wants to see the country fails, not even if you hate what's going on...

Good Luck

Man Proposes; God disposes



Friday, July 10, 2015

Stock Market : Did The Correction Comes Early

when Greece caught a cold, Europe got flu...oops! China caught pneumonia...

On Feb 4, 2015, I wrote in my blog "...I am not surprised to see market dropping heavily into/around end3Q to early4Q after topping up (on the charts). The last Qtr 2015 will be very challenging!..."

Did my projection materialised earlier and there shall be a relatively 'stable, rebound and upswing' without the 3Q/4Q quagmire? Unfortunately, it's unlikely. We are still likely to face another onslaught towards 3Q/4Q.

The recent nervousness of the markets left many dumbfounded, especially China/PRC stockmarket. Following this drop, Europe, especially Germany & France stockmarkets are bruised by the bears. They are likely to be so ...for a while.

The Chinese/PRC stockmarket is bruised, especially the smaller investors aka speculators, but the chances of rebounding and retesting 4200/4500 is still possible. There will be a paradigm shift; players, I meant investors, will have to do their homework than to throw darts.

You need to know some fundamentals, technicals and alot of commonsense to survive the stockmarket gyrations ; a fool and his money will soon part



21 Mar 2015                               10 July 2015 (off lows)

Sti 3412                                        3284
N225 19560                                19,779
KLCi 1803                                    1715
HSI 24371                                   24,877
Jkt 5443                                        4873
DJIA 18127                                17,548
S&P 2108                                      2051
Nasdaq 5026                                  4922
Shanghai                                        3877 (at worst, tested low near 3500; 52-wk HI/Lo 5178/2033)

There is still room for the market to rebound and some money can be made, but please do your homework. Outright speculation is deadly.

Will the Total Lunar Eclipse on 28 September 2015 results in another rout?


Happy Trading; watch your wallet!

Home Coming

...every roads lead to home

When you are young, home was where warmth is
When you grow up, you have to go away in search of 'bread & butter' & to prosper
When age catches up, it's time to 'let-go', relax, reflect and relieve the lost days
Whatever has been done are done; the dreams & ideals fade into time

What will tomorrow bring? God promises tomorrow but He does not want to bore you
Every day is a surprise
Every success, failure and nothingness is a surprise
Man proposes, God disposes

In the "36 Strategies 三十六记", MAN starts with Full of Hopes
MAN ends with 走回上记 ...back to the beginning
Life is a circle; what goes around, comes around 因果
Everything is possible没有做不到的事,只有还没想到。The world is our plaground心有多大,舞台就多大

Nothing venture, nothing gain
The surest way to failure is to 'do nothing' to whatever that 'you wanted to do'
But, always do it within your means and ability
Pushing too hard, trying beyond your means and 'overdrafting' on resources KILL

The world is not without limits
Everyone is crafted for some specific roles & role-play
We are as finite as we breath today & now; when the Soul parts the body, everything stops
Go...follow your heart

I have been there, done that
I have gone round circles chasing my own 'tail'
I have my hits of successes and strokes of failures
I am living on borrowed time

Home Coming ...home is where warmth is
Home is where I rest my tired legs and worn-out Soul
Home ~ there must be Peace, Quietness and Restfulness
Home coming must never be a nightmare but place where many return to rest; sometimes forever

I have a Home, not just a house