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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Happy Days Are Back - 01012009

Unlike previous years, I have chosen today [with 365 days ahead] to share my thoughts.

2008 was a trying year; a year filled with surprises, both positives and negatives! But, like all things, there is day and night, trials and tribulations and bad times shall pass. It is darkest just before dawn breaks!

It is imperative to keep the spirits high and be in good health in trying moments. A healthy, positive mind can move mountain; nothing is impossible - just do it. Don't let yesterday's drag be tomorrow's fruits. Live well and live healthily today & anyday for tomorrow's victory is there for your taking. Follow your heart!

Whether you are happy or sad, well-fed or hungry, lame or a 'fighting fit' machine, planning your work or wallowing in self-pity, you will only win and be better if you are ever-ready to receive and take the challenges when the new dawn arrives; dead man tells no tales. Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.

So, just live happily, healthily and adapt well. Whether you like it or not, the environment will change, things will change; just be there when the good times are back.

Well, Man find solutions to problems but GOD eliminates problems. In GOD we Trust; do your best and leave the rest!

Be Happy Today, Tomorrow & Anyday; Today is a HappyDay with 365 happier days to come...
You have a choice. It is our fortune to be able to help. Be genuine, kind and nice & make the world alittle nicer and pleasant for all to live

I may not be materially well off but I am contented & happy; I have enough to eat, not excessively. I have enough to go round but not luxurious though! I sleep well and soundly and bathe in the abundance of blessings - YOU can too.

You have a choice.

GOD bless; Happy NY09

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Be Guarded - a little warning - 01012009

History repeats itself! Will the world ever learn? Probably not.

When one is dine and wine by the "richest, smartest, classiest ..." more often than not they forgot that the world's a stage. They live to tell the tale that Mr/Mdm "who's who" had invited them to share their dreams and fruits of labour.

And the truth is we live among the Good, the Bad & the Ugly.

It is unkind to call Madoff's victims and Lehman Brothers investors Oxymoron - Oxymorons are a proper subset of the expressions called contradictions in terms. They were lead by their nose by established institutions and famous characters. They 'bought' themselves into the 'rich & famous' circles; only to realize that names alone do not guarantee good, reliable characters. A little due diligence and a void of greed would have saved the day.

Or was it Narcissism - The term narcissism means love of oneself, and refers to the set of character traits concerned with self-admiration, self-centeredness and self-regard - that make victims easy preys? You can win sometimes, most times but NOT all the times. When winnings come easy, complacency sets in and one becomes 'invincible'. "I" becomes an overpowering pronoun and little heed is paid to red flags as "I" know what "I" am doing!

(Narcissism - The name was chosen by Sigmund Freud, from the Greek mythof Narcissus, who was doomed to fall in love with his own reflection in a pool of water).

Lets not cry over spilled milk; pick up, review, resolve and without regret, move ahead. The next time, when things are too good to be true, it probably is!

Be guarded and smarter the next time round.

Good luck 01012009

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Recovery In Sight II - 2009 - The EAST shall rise and shine

Introduction

Is the worst behind us and is recovery in sight? Probably yes. Recovery is in sight but freak weather conditions, health scares and diseases, social unrest and lack of political will may scuttle hopes of finding universally acceptable solutions to one and all. The road is long and the slopes steep!

All Sovereign chiefs at the G20 meeting make it abandonly clear that any extension of help will be within their country first then outside; this is not a case of selfishness but survival.

When Iceland approached USA and EU for help, she was given a cold shoulder. In desperation, she approached Russia, an unlikely 'ally', and found aid.

China commits to spend S$800bil, with S$25bil to be spent this quarter and to use up the rest by 2010. China has to create jobs and spin the multiplier within to offset job losses and create demand, hopefully neutralizing social disequilibrium and disquietness, from her export-oriented economy.

Guardians or Ali Baba

The West, as leaders in finance, must learn that there is zero tolerance for gamesmanship and that the financial system must be jealously guarded against greed, hollow ideas, senseless securitisation and derivatives. Financial system cannot be completely deregulated as it is easy and never painful to toy with 'other people's money'.

The recent rebound in Wall Street is base on hope, not confidence. It is hope that President-elect Obama will listen and attend to one, and all industries, and to dish out aids and grants to stall those that are 'too big to be allowed to collapse'. Omigosh! this simply goes against the Law of Comparative/Competitive Advantage. If Mr Obama does go ahead to give handouts to all, he is sparing the rod and spoil the child.

As the Bible tells us: "He who spareth the rod hateth his son: but he that loveth him correcteth him betimes" (Proverbs 13:24)

I read somewhere that said "in dense jungles, when old, hugh trees die and fall, they allow sunlight to shine through thereby allowing new plants and saplings to grow thereby replacing deadwood."

It is not failures that make us a fool, it is when we don't learn the lessons and repeat the same (at a larger degree) that will decimate us...just to name a few - the US Savings & Loans, LTCM, Parmalat, Enron, US housing bubble ...

The World

The limping West is seeking help from richer countries and the better off but they have yet to organise their thoughts and offer constructive solutions except to ask for contributions.

The affected East is adamant of turning inwards, to fill the stomachs so as to relieve tensions - a hungry man is an angry man. Spendings on infrastructures, roads, ports, schools, hospitals, power plants ... to spin the multiplier/accelerator in order to create self-sustaining demand to replace what was once an export dependent economy. Smaller economies and nations will have to reposition and realign themselves to the new economic power/engine/region to ride the recovery. If successful, the East shall shine!
The Oil rich nations and Russia will have a whirl of a time to engage and influence geopolitical and ideological imbalances.

The world is not going to get any better until the underlying sickness [of companies, funds, countries, political gamesmanship] is treated or ringfenced. At best, there may be some semblance of stability and plateauing in 3rd Quarter 2009.

Man In The Street

Cash is King!

Not that you are not encourage to spend but spending is a flow; you spend if you know that income and earnings are forthcoming. With a dramatic economic contraction, the next meal may be uncertain let alone income and earnings.

With the arrival of New Year 2009 and after the installation of President-elect Obama and Chinese New Year, reality replaces hope. The recession had been here long before being recognised. Slowdown, layoffs, unemployment, underemployment and debts will be a norm. Soup lines may surface if the recession deepens or, worse still, depression kicks in.

Of course its not all doom and gloom. But being prepared, like being forewarned, is forearmed.

The Stockmarket

Recent Indicative High/Low (1/12/08)

Indices LOW HIGH CURRENT

HSI 10,676 32,000 14,108
Nikkei 225 7,000 18,300 8,397
JKT CI 1,100 2,800 1,223
KLCI 800 1,500 848
Shanghai A 1,700 6,400 1,894
SET 400 900 390
STI 1,500 3,900 1,690
Dow 30 7,552 14,164 8,829
S&P 500 840 1,540 893

The real economy has to lead the recovery. Besides, the redemption from the Hedge funds and the realisation into cash of portfolios held in institutions that collapsed, or near collapse, are far from over.

Recovery takes time but the lower costs of factors of production has made the road to recovery less onerous.

For the moment, this is a page to skip. For the brave, its still a trade in the bear. For those who have cash, it is also time to bargain hunt - put some into companies whose price are 'bombed-out' and is a fraction from their peak. Unfortunately, like all investment, the risks are real; just pray hard that your chosen one is not bankrupted before you cash out. If you are prepared to get into the market, be prepared to ride long haul or at worst case, your money bites the dusts!

Eclipses

Solar Eclipses
  • 2009 January 26 - annular solar eclipse
  • 2009 July 21-22 - total solar eclipse
Lunar Eclipses
  • 2009 February 9 - penumbral lunar eclipse
  • 2009 July 7 - penumbral lunar eclipse
  • 2009 August 5-6 - penumbral lunar eclipse
  • 2009 December 31 - partial lunar eclipse
As previously mentioned, eclipses have an uncanny correlation with market performances with lunar being negative and solar being positive..

2009 will have a wider mix of risks and opportunities.

May I wish everyone a Happy, Healthy New Year 2009 ... Health is Wealth

God bless

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Costs Cutting Morale Boosting

In this trying times, there are things we can do to make life alittle easier yet productive. Employers need not fret and axe staffs but may find less painful solutions;

How to cut costs, not morales.

Allow Unpaid timeoff - it pleases your staff and they perform equally well (motion expand to fill time given) without hurting your pocket

Allow Work from home tied to results (KPI) - this is freedom with responsibility

Voluntary 'layoffs' (if excess staffs) - why keep so many staffs when they cannot work productively but instead spent time speculating on 'Who' & 'When' will layoffs hit

Sell off or give away non-performing units - knowing your terrain and running it well is better than clinging on to hope that things will change for the better (a Dollar saved is a dollar gained)

Reorganise backroom, supporting functions to locations with lower rentals/costs - a nicely fit 'factory outlet' is equally functional and efficient

Redesign the work place - not everyone needs a room or a cubicle

Allow Management Buy-Outs of 'stand alone, less efficient units' - re-employ them as part of your supplychain

Re-time and use more efficient Advertising & Promotions with longer shelflife - A&P captures consumers interests and participation in their leisure hours

Insists on least cost suppliers - least cost does not mean less efficient nor lower quality (ask for references)

Be prepared to lower pay of free loaders, non-thinking (not contributing but just being present) staffs - 'Yes man' are best partners for parties not work



Nobody is indispensable yet everybody must be a working piece of the locomotion

You Can't Fly Like An Eagle If You Are Working With Turkeys

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Tao - 道

Breath well and be at Peace
When in turbulence, Relax
Smile in the face of the Unruly
When confuse, walk away to allow Diffusion
Don't set high expectations as Disappointments will be equally high
When in Doubts, Pray - GOD is all around us
Give yourself a chance as No one will
When there is day, there is night. There are Winners, there are Losers
Yin and Yang are unique and yet in unison
Go with the Flow
Nothing is beyond us, as Nothing will be too Insurmountable
It is not Failures that break a person, it is his refusal and inability to Overcome defeat
I am Who I am, I come and I go, I am only Passing
Keep thing Simple, Keep life Simple
Tomorrow will always come, but Today is the best
Seeing is believing as the Eyes see, believing is Seeing as the Soul feels 
I live today & now; I live happily
My Soul is at ease and my Feeling is empty - void of distractions and negatives 
In GOD I Trust

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Stockmarket - Recovery In Sight

Whats in store for the stockmarket and will Main Street be forgiven for the excesses of Wall Street?

Like most things, once you recognised, or is willing to recognise, the problems, solutions abound. But, turning around a huge vessel takes time. Afterall, the excesses of the market was seeded long ago and its implosion left few unscathe.

Its a global problem aka globalisation!

It takes political will and the willingness to allow adoption of comprehensive, albeit invasive, solutions to repair the damage on Wall Street and thereby lessen the impact, and suffering, on Main Street. There are no painless measures - some doses of communistic measures are needed to reclaim and rehabilitate the irresponsible laissez-faire practices.

a) If Central Banks can't be a Lender of last resort, nationalizing financial institutions that failed is, at best, necessary to restore confidence. It is imperative that the Western nations allow Soverign Funds or Global non-resident investors to, not only increase their stakes in financial institutions but, also welcome Board representations and ideas.

During the 97/98 Asian financial crisis, Western powerhouses and investors bought and controlled many Asian companies, why not the reverse be allowed? You can't have the cake and eat it all; "leave your money and leave my room" is a bad start.

b) In my last article, I mentioned that if one equation in the vicious cycle of cost push and demand pull inflation evaporates, commodities prices will fall due to declining demand. This has materialize and factors of production are/is less dear. Hopefully, with a slowing economy, the cost of living also falls with lower costs of production.

c) When the demand for funds eases, so will interest rates. With renewed and restored confidence, businesses will borrow for expansion to keep up with demand and banks will resume lending as some level of credit creation is needed to grease growth.

d) The catch is if Government simply prints money to satisfy liquidity demand, inflation will rears its ugly head. The world will be a worse place if runaway inflation is twinned with declining or negative growth. If confidence in money as a means of exchange dissipates, all bets are off; recovery becomes more remote.

e) With less rosy attraction in the big, costlier cities, more will return to their rural homeland and 'plough the field'. A change in trend will increase primary production, in particular cereals, rice and other consumables and ease the pressure on prices.

China is leading the way in allowing farmers to own land for up to 30 years for arable purposes. The farmers are allow to buy, sell or merge their land; with better technology, higher yielding grains and machineries, farmers can enjoy economies of scales. With this, Thomas Malthus can rest better.

f) The madness of deleveraging US$ loans and decoupling of Yen-carry trades is being unwind and straightening up fast in this uncertain times as fewer are 'trigger-happy' and reality sets in with many riding on this opportunity to rid their books of overdue positions. When the dusts settle, a more robust regime will surface to rein in on reckless practices.

g) The toxic loans and inflated values of assets will be trimmed and canned and should reflect current values which is affordable albeit minimal and acceptable gearing. The days of living on 'tomorrow's income' today will be a thing of the past.

h) USA and Europe taught Asia some lessons in 1997/98 but imploded under fairly similar but exponential factors. At its peak, Japan was mortgaging their Third Generation's forward earnings to buy properties; Japan is still licking her wound long after the bubble bust in 1990,

If there is no political will to allow foreigners and foreign funds to have a stake and participation in management, the recovery route will be even less certain.

The collapse of stockmarkets worldwide is a reflection of lost confidence in the global financial system. To make matter worse, the fall was sharp and fast and until the stockmarkets stabilize, there is little that can be done to save Main Street from tomorrow's trauma. Failures and closures of financial institutions and businesses, credit contraction and lost confidence translate into lost jobs, depressive moods and declining demand. While policymakers explore, adopt and invent new ways to tackle the crisis, the worst is yet to be.

The 1st - 3rd Qtr 2009 will see mainstream man-in-the-street coming to reckoning and sufferring from this financial fallout. Prices of goods and services will be more earthly bound. Borrowed time and resources will be reduced. Resources will have to be redeployed.

Recovery In Sight & Opportunities Abound

It is not all doom and gloom. There are still opportunities for level headed investments with higher returns as prices ease.

Capitalism is here to stay and the next millionaires or successful tycoon might be you!

Lookout for sectors that are 'bombed out' (banks, financial institutions, manufacturing) and those that cater to necessities (hospitals, drugs, food, commodities) and consumables. Care to tell me more?

Companies NEVER fail; its the management. Be thrifty, turbulence ahead.

Political will to rid overindulgence and excessive, negative, selfish behavior will help turn the vessel around! Hope to see you there when the LUCKY vessel turn around. Now that the causes are identified and recognised, the treatment begins.

Good luck & God bless

THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISE NOR ANY ATTEMPTS TO SWAY DECISIONS. IT SHOULD NOT, AND CANNOT, BE RELIED ON FOR MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS. IF IN DOUBT, CONSULT YOUR OWN PROFESSIONALS FOR ADVICES; ITS FOR READING PLEASURE ONLY

pkweksh.blogspot.com

Friday, October 3, 2008

Crisis Management - Positive Thinking

Have the financial armaggedon make life more equal or happier? It depends!

If you are poor, more will be joining you; rejoice, soon you will have more friends who loss their jobs and homes and some will be worse than you - you found friends

If you find climbing up the social ladder tiring because of too many steps; rejoice, alot have fallen from the top and the top tier had been reduced - less steps to climb

If you are living from hand to mouth; rejoice, there are many who will be your equals, if not worse off - why compare?

If you have no credit cards or creditlines; rejoice, many had outspent themselves and is now worse than you - they may have to look up to you

If you have no money, then why worry? You have been able to live ably and happily for so many years without a fuss; many will have to learn something from you - teach them something and earn your keeps

If you have been receiving empty promises from your boss, do not despair; it was never meant to be delivered. Like you, he was also living in a dream

If you are living in the dumps for years, now is the time to rent your squatters to those whose equities and monies were kept in the likes of Lehmans, WaMu, NorthernRock evaporate - you are a newborn landlord

If you have just lost your girl/boy friend, count yourself lucky; it is going to be cheaper when you next set up your home/family

For years you have lived your life in current stature. Soon, many will have to learn how to live their lives in the more earthly manner like you

For many years you wonder how the CEOs make their millions and living luxuriously, soon the unscrupulous will live in cells and anonymity

In a crisis, there are opportunities. That the obstacles had been brought lower in a downturn, grab your chance - no one owes you a living

The earlier that you accept that the world is unequal, the happier you will be and accept challenges like sunrise and sunset - if you win, you get to keep the fortune, if you loss you gain experiences

Happiness is when you are contented. Happiness is when you are able to share - its all in your hands

Be contented, be happy; you are blessed - Count Your Blessings

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Crisis & Opportunities

The demise of Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, Northern Rock, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and a string of others are the results of excesses of Capitalism.

There is no one best system; be it capitalist or communist. In every society, there is a need for checks and balances. What happens now is a result of lack of political will to rein in excessive economic expansion; besides institutions like AIG lives her life beyond that of an insurer and provided services not unlike a bank!

The other problem is with the grader. S&P grades the issuers of bonds and institutions; who police S&P to ensure that impartial, true and fair views are expressed consistently. Or that the grading is made on sound postulations.

Also, writers and originators of CDOs, derivatives and secondary issues have moved beyond the reaches of the arms of Laws. Laws and Regulations are often by-products of actions. Many instruments were packaged together and traded, first between institutions, then marketed to unwary players without an iota of wisdom or consideration of consequential failures.

In simple term, growth was powered by borrowings and greased by imaginative instruments; caution was thrown to the wind and profit was the primary motivator.

The need to perform, the accolades given to successes and the rewards were simply too good to factor in the fallouts of consequential failures. Most, if not all, decisions were commercially driven.

Afterall, most corporate honchos and CEOs are professional managers and their term of office has a limited shelf-life.

Was this current financial armaggedon preventable? The answer is yes.

Will it be repeated? Unfortunately, the answer is yes too and in greater intensity. History repeats itself because few will learn.

In the meanwhile, be patient and live honestly and humbly. Like the Law of nature, growth and declines are part of a natural force.

In a crisis, there are also opportunities; Be prepared and be there when opportunities surface.

Good luck

Friday, August 22, 2008

Brutal Truth

Winners get all the attention and losers bite the dusts

When luck is with you, anything and everything you do is a breeze and success begets successes

When you tell the truth and the truth hurts, you becomes the 'courier of bad news' and is deemed a spoiltsport; and will be cast away like a dodo

Many people like to hear 'sweet nothings' and live the life of 'emperor without clothes'

Unless you are seen as useful or can be make used of, society generally keeps away from you

When you are winning and riding high, cruise the course

When you lose, stay low, manage your expectation and bite your time; don't expect pity.

It takes alot of courage to fight or flee; live to fight another day

Suicides end all but being alive means you have another chance, albeit temporary misery

Every man has a weakness and every woman - madness

When you are down, need not ask the 'Whys' and 'How unfair'; the earlier that you know and accept that life will never be fair, the happier you will be

Living in misery is a choice as living happily is another choice; why live in misery when you can just ignore the pains, the hurt and the setbacks; the truth is always brutal

Tomorrow will come but make the best use of TODAY

Friday, August 8, 2008

I have a dream

I have a dream

But I want to live reality to the fullest

I want to be happy; today and anyday

To inspire one and all to live life to the fullest - with hope and inspirations

Complaints, disagreements, discords, being bullied and belittled ... so?

Be real! From dust to dust; we came naked and will return 'naked' ... the only wisdom is to be the best, live the best [within our means] and give a helping to all to our fellowmen

Today is ... my dream come true.

Tomorrow is ... never promised.

I live my dream

Choices - More often than not it is NO choice

We all have a choice; to live happily or to live a life of misery
But, it takes more than guts to brave the betrayals, setbacks, obstacles ... life challenges

More often than not, to flow with life's demand is itself a great challenge but, alas, let us not despair... the journey is forever fraught with unknown and uncertainties.

Whether you live happily or miserably, you need to pass today to reach tomorrow... only to realize that tomorrow never comes!

Why be miserable now? Why not live the best and bask in the glory of today... the choice is obvious but few really have a choice.

The challenges are tough and rough, never insurmountable; GOD, give me strength, show me the way as I live now and tomorrow will arrive soon...........

I want to live the best today; and EVERYDAY - knowing very well that I have a choice.

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Stockmarkets 2nd Half 2008 - Win or Loss

Be Prepared and 'forewarned is forarmed' Everyone wants to make money but few does their homework!

Introduction

Last July, investment banks estimated losses from subprime mortgages would total $100 billion. Within a month it had quickly doubled to $200 billion. By November estimates had risen to $400 billion. Now, even Goldman Sachs has posited $1 trillion (re: American Public Media); is this a back of the envelop estimates or wild guesses?

On April 8th, Morgan Stanley's CEO John Mack announced that we are in "maybe the top of the ninth," regarding the subprime credit collapse.Lehman Brothers' CEO Richard Fuld announced that "the worst is over" a mere couple of weeks after Lehman analysts cut their estimates for banks in 1Q08. Merrill Lynch's CEO joined the "worst is over" crowd a mere month before his firm wrote down another $6 billion and announced it would be cutting 4,000 jobs (re:Global Profit Strategies).

Fannie Mae, the biggest mortgage underwriter in America, reported a loss of more than $2 billion last quarter (6 May 2008); a bailout seems like a necessity now!

Was the shout "the worst is over" for the financial crisis a shout in the wilderness? 2008 is a volatile year for index traders.

Elsewhere, political leaders were also trying to inject some sanity and to ringfence the contagion through moral suasion, monetary and fiscal policies.

Is the worst really over or are the leading players trying to tranquilize the public and seed calmness in the haemorrhaging marketplace? Or was it "a repricing of risks" as mentioned by President Bush (30/8/07).

Global issues & the Stockmarkets

Most markets enjoyed some rebound after one of the worst sell-down in March 2008. However, it seems more like "sell in May and go away".

Let us visit some issues and reflect on what has gone right or 'awfully' wrong?

i) In a recent speech, Bernake said that the US Fed is unlikely to reduce interest rate further. This was seen as an indication of a strengthening US$. Speculators 'short' oil and 'long' dollar. However, on 6 June 2008, oil prices spiked up triggering off short-covering that resulted in a biggest one-day movement of oil price (US$11) to US$139; in the same day, Dow fell 394 points! Crude oil is around US$130 today.

ii) With spiraling energy and food prices, other factors of production have also become dearer. Is this the result of speculative demand or reality at work? How do you account for the record breaking profits of oil & gas industry; Exxon's profits for the first quarter of 2008 were a whopping 17 percent higher than its huge profits from the previous quarter. (seattlepi.com - 10 June 2008). Is this a result of higher efficiency or profiteering by cartel-like oligopolistic pricing?

iii) Inflation - in a nutshell; the global growth is fueled ceaselessly by consumer-nation, US, and supported by a huge but cheap manufacturing base, China. With increasing demand, China's wealth creation translates into higher per capita income over the years thereby empowering her citizens with higher 'purchasing power', ceteris paribus. With a breakneck multiplier at work, China scour the world and acquire natural resources necessary to sustain her growth as well as to feed demands from within, and the world at large.

The cost-push and demand-pull inflation feeds on each other and resulted in a runaway inflation currently blazing the globe without any sight of receding. If one equation is truncated, the impact will be greatly reduced.

iv) Arable land shrinks with modernisation, crop switching and urbanisation thereby reducing food production adding to current woes. Nothing seems to be able to stop run away prices! Biofuel only adds to the woes.

iv) ECB is bent on raising interest rate to battle inflation and Bernake has indicated the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rate. Any increase in interest rate in Japan is likely to raise anxieties of Yen carry trades

v) How bad is the US Subprime mortgage loans? The exact figure is still unknown and the situation is made worse with growing unemployment; the full blown subprime effect is yet to be felt; well, Fannie and Freddie mac is screaming for rescue! A truncation of demand pull inflation will ease the vicious cycle of pressure on prices.

vi) Oil price has been rising over the last few years for a low of US$20 in 2002 to current near US$130. Global Research (2 May 2008) estimates that 60% of oil prices today is due to speculation. Oil should stabilize around US$100.

With cost outstriping income, many around the world are feeling the pinch of rising costs of living and protests and social unrests may become the order of the day. Besides, the rising cost of production will curtail demand, therby easing the pressures on costs/factors of production.

vii) The love-hate relationship of US$ vis-a-vis other currencies lends further uncertainties to the world market. Liquidity squeeze, subprime, rising unemployment and rising energy and food costs will hamper US stocks and dampens consumption leading to a slowdown; a long expected breather.

vi) Social order

The widening rich-poor gap threatens social order and is potentially a destabilizing factor to market at large. Cost push inflation will eventually lead to slowdown in demand as goods are priced beyond consumers reach. With uncertainties in the financial markets and the evaporation of confidence, the markets will drop to an earthly levels.

Technically Speaking

There is no prize for guessing the correct number in the indices. But, it looks like its a buy on (extreme) weaknessesand Sell into strength to lock in the profits! Trade the Bear...

The Stockmarket, the Sun & the Moon

There is an uncanny correlationship between the Solar Eclipse (market has a tendency to move up) and the Lunar Eclipse (market has a tendency to fall) - especially if the eclipse is total - as can be seen in the recent Lunar Eclipses in March & August 2007 (its been fairly similar since I began tracking eclipses in 1980s).

In year 2008, the following are interesting dates to watch:

7/2/08 Annular Solar Eclipse
21/2/08 Total Lunar Eclipse
1/8/08 Total Solar Eclipse - a possible BUY chance
16/8/08 Partial Lunar Eclipse


The bull, the bear and the sheep

The bulls are tire; the bears not likeable. And the sheep pay and watch the bulls and bears smearing each other to gain prominence.

2008 makes good trades but holds little for those who are indecisive? Do share your opinions with me.




(THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISE NOR ANY ATTEMPTS TO SWAY DECISIONS. IT SHOULD NOT, AND CANNOT, BE RELIED ON FOR MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS. IF IN DOUBT, CONSULT YOUR OWN PROFESSIONALS FOR ADVISES; ITS FOR READING PLEASURE ONLY . ALL ABOVE INFORMATION & CONTENTS ARE WITHOUT PREJUDICE, UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED)

Saturday, July 5, 2008

Organs For Sales?

It is unfortunate but real that when a person's life is on tenterhooks, he will seek the least-resistance path to look for solutions. Where organ trade, and thus health, is concern, the rich will be able to pay his way to get replacement. What about the poor? The world will never be equal but we can make it more livable and humane.

Most are against trading of human organs but will they say the same if he is ill and desperately needed a replacement organ?

I agree with Dr Lee W L that legislation needs to be tweaked to suit changing needs but who will determine if a kidney should be priced at S$30,000 or S$300,000? More importantly, who determines who gets the organ if price mechanism in play?

Perhaps, we can revisit the Human Organ Transplant Act (Hota) where organs are harvested in cases of brain dead patients who did not opt out.

Fresh legislation can be introduced to Hota to accomodate situation where a brain dead patient who have opted out but his organs can still be harvested for their immediate sick relatives or family members replacement for a price. Hopefully over time, when this practice is accepted, or becomes more acceptable, the populace will be more willing to accept price mechanism for living donors.

Too many legislations stifle solutions but effective and relevant regulations make difficult decisions alittle more tolerable.

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

THE PRAGMATIC POSITIVES


Being positive is good but sometimes we must not try too hard
We must not drive too hard a bargain but leave enough for a satisfysing conclusion
Walking away from a intense situation will, more often than not, allow enough room for solutions to manifest
When two bulls lock horns, nobody wins
When the aircraft carrier 'challenges' the lighthouse for her right of way, the aircraft carrier is doomed for its obstinancy
Try your best and worry not
Spend your effort to orchestrate solutions instead of worrying about your problems
That split second decision sometimes differentiate between a winner and a loser; a life and death; boom or doom
Learn and re-learn.
Arm yourself with knowledge and be informed
Be aware and adapt to the fast changing environment
I cannot change the environment but am quick to adapt
I do not intend to, and cannot, change others
I listen more, speak less - in silence, I find peace
Everyone can win but few will learn to enjoy & bask in his victories
Sway like the willow and live like the cockroach
If living is to a process, I choose an enlighten journey; I choose to live happily today & everyday
ZEN - nature is permanent yet impermanence
A healthy body and a happy soul ; I shall be

Saturday, May 17, 2008

SINGAPOREANS - Are you a Foreign Talent, Foreigner or Local?

From the days of Sang Nila Utama (1300s) to Sir Stanford Raffles (1819) to British Malaya to Malaysia (1963) and finally as an independent nation, Singapore (1965) has been home to migrants from all over the world.

Singapore's early days as a trading post attracts people from all walks of life who seek their fortune in faraway land. Some choose to remain while others become the 'transit' population. The former become citizens in their newfoundland and the latter live here as their place of convenience until they discover their ultimate dreamland.

The underlying attraction was economics and commerce.

In the early days when communication was difficult and news about opportunities were scarce, it was the traders and seafarers who, having been to the hugely successful trading port called Singapore, brought news home and informed their fellowmen that opportunities abound in this sounternmost island; henceforth, it was a trip to 'Nanyang' meaning 'Southern Ocean' which refers to Malaysia, Borneo and Singapore, for those who want to seek fame and fortune. The strategic location of Singapore was, and still is, a plus point.

In our globalise world today, the seamless electronic age has made the world a much smaller place as information avails with the press of a button.

Every country is looking at ways and means of not only attracting , but retaining, talents as well. Having said this, you cannot have all leaders and no foot soldiers if the force is to remain latent and relevant. In simple term, we need brains and brawns to be complete.

So, why is there so much detestation and animosity toward foreigners who come to Singapore to work with a view to settle down when time and opportunity permits? Is it purely economics? Or?

Let us take a look at some possible causes and explanations:

It is the work of all governments to attract as many talents as possible to their country to help maintain, improve, valueadd and create a wholesome. productive population capable of producing more with less, that is, to raise the standards of living while managing the costs of living. This is almost perfect except Singaporeans seem unable to fathom why foreign workers are deployed in all levels of employment, including lower and unskilled workers. I guess when you talk about foreign talents, you are refering to more brains than brawns and this equation does not always equal! The fault seems to be the over weightage given to, and overuse of this term "foreign talent".

Yes, we need talents but every society and population is shaped like a pyramid, with more at the base and lesser as you move up the ladder. Similarly, every foreigner who are willing to toil with,and contribute to, us, be it skill or un-skill labour should be welcomed to plug our deficiency in supply.

At a given level of remuneration, if there is work to be done, someone has to do the job otherwise the economy will stall and regress. If jobs abound and Singaporeans feel the position is underpaying then why is it the job is still attractive to foreigners who have to uproot themselves and part with their family to fill in the 'low paying' job? I guess the underlying cause is the managing of expectations. You either have a combative and protective labour movement or a cohesive one that works to achieve harmony and equity in lieu of competition. The choice is clear.

Should any governments bar or restrict any labour with good, useful, willing and relevant skills from working in their country in order to protect their population? For optimal allocation of resources, the answer is no. We are living in a highly competitive world. We should progress and move ahead to grow the economy, then use (some of)the surplus to help those left behind. They are our fellowmen and they must receive a helping hand! More importantly with our migrant co-workers, Singapore will be more competitively priced to take on the challenges ahead.

What can Singapore offer to attract foreigners of all level to come here to work? Plentiful, I guess. But, there are also many competing nations who have deeper pockets and attractive policies to attract and retain them. The edge, I guess is, apart from suitably tuned policies, Singapore is being considered because of a fairly similar culture, language and religion. They are following our ancestors' footsteps; coming here to seek a decent living, and hopefully, fame and fortune.

Our ancestors were once foreign workers and talents in 'their' newfoundland called Singapore. They came, they saw, they toiled and they settled down and started their families. They strove to be wanted and accepted. They faced the same challenges as the migrant workers today.

Looking at history, all the complaints about the foreign workers, be they talented or not, in Singapore, are not going to change or dent the flow of migrant workers; let us live up to the challenges and accept what we cannot change and work towards a bigger pie so that we have more to share.

Our ancestors were Foreign Talents when they arrived in Singapore. Their families and friends came as foreigners to settle down and long after they were gone, we are still here ... and we are the proud, capable and able Singaporeans.

SINGAPOREANS - Are you a Foreign Talent, Foreigner or Local? I am definitely Singaporean and I hope you are one too.

We have a choice; Majullah Singapore!

Friday, May 9, 2008

Hope - here, there, everywhere



There is hope, there is miracles, there is God!
We will always be safe in the hands of God

Positive attracts positive
We will do well to reside on the bright side of life; don't just work hard, work smart.
Make hay while the sun shines

Everything happens for a reason
Long after the event passed, we will know the reasons for the event happening.
By then, the pain is gone and the residue, if any, is nothing but memories

Life is about living; not just being alive
We should do our best to live life to the fullest, happiest and with contentment

There is no one best way to handle life's challenges
Sometimes you KeepInView, sometimes its in, and most times, its out.
When its KIV, someone will take care of it; either you or others
When its In, someone has just pass the buck to you
When its Out, you have just pass the buck to someone

Moments of sadness last longest because we long for the painful hours to pass
Moments of happiness are shortest because we enjoy and indulge without realizing that time has passed us by

Cometh the time; cometh the man
We are made for the seasons we lived in.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Career - Be The Best

Always be the best & be ready.

Whatever you undertake to do, always do your best. Your enthusiasm and passion for the work chosen, pickled with intelligence and indepth knowledge will manifest into the most desirable result.

Don't just work hard; horses and cows work very hard too! Work smart. Don't be lazy; the greatest regret in life is being lazy. Laziness achieves nothing and losses everything!

If you like :

- managing people, human resource management is good.
- immediate results, sales is the job.
- crisis management, medicine & military is excellent.
- helping others, social and legal work is suitable
- to build, engineering is a choice.
- to prove a point, join politics

The list goes on....

Know your strengths and manage your weaknesses.

Only you know yourself and your goal better. What others can do for you is to guide you towards your ideal; reaching your goal is your work.

The best career isn't the one that pays you the highest nor that that gives you the greatest recognition, its the one that gives you the most satisfaction and a peace of mind. Joy to those who knows the limits of achievements and basks in the glory of sweet victories.

Even Napoleon Buonaparte has his Waterloo & Alexander has his babylon! How about you?

Cheers - Think Positive

Cheer up! A cheerful soul is an enlightened person.

"Know tyself"
A good warrior knows his strength and manage, and minimize, his weaknesses. He fights to win. He is prepared and will only pounce when opportunity presents. He don't fight every battles but he chooses when to go to war.

SunZi - "empty city" strategy -
A guarded fascade, charming and disarming, will keep your opponents guessing, unprepared and unaware. Leave enough ropes for your opponent to hang tyself; why dirty your hands to eliminate unworthy opponents?

"Be like a willow tree"
Sway with the wind and still remain stable! Develop an agile personality to mix with people of all walks of life, races and religion. You need not hate them, or like them. Do enough to keep them by, and be on, your side. Why have enemies when you can have them on your side to fight your battles.

"Remain cheerful and positive"
Positives win more positives! Positive attracts and charms all around you. Not tthat you need to clown around, but you need to attract the right people into your camp; those who will march to your tune.

"Rest well and be composed"
Give yourself enough rest. Fight every war only when you come to it as not all battles are war-worthy!

"Management"
When you are angry and disturbed, don't react; simply walk away. Keep your cool and be proactive because any/every immediate reaction is not thoroughly thought through. You are "eating out of your enemy's hands". You should allow enough time to pass. Management decision can be "Yes", "No" or "Wait".

"Care"
Be thoughtful to all around you. Whatever you do affects everybody, especially those closest to you - your parents, siblings, grandparents ... You don't want to drop a nucleur bomb to eliminate your neighbour!

"Time"
Time is my best friend. When I walk away from an unworthy challenge, I have time to think. And most of the time when you return, your unworthy opponent has disappear, been liquidated or simply became 'friend' again.

"Faith"
Have faith in your GOD. HE will always be there for you, and with you.

Author
Wizard

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

May Day, Mayday - Costs of Living

Well, what happens to the cost of living? Nothing much, it just get higher.

Commodities prices have risen sharply due to the fear; a fear of shortages. Typically, price rise will abate after two, or maybe by the third, cycles of harvest. This is because as prices rise, it pays to plant more of the lucrative crops given the similar plot of land.

However, this time around, the effect is deadlier as the cost push factors, like higher fuel and labour costs, were compounded by demand pull factors, that is, hoarding and massive buying, improved affordability of huge consumer nations like China and India; the fear of shortages!

Is there anything that can be done to lessen the impact of price rises? Nothing much too.

Some Governments try to alleviate and lessen the struggle to survive by assisting with a redistribution of income as income gap widens and a thinning purchasing power. This will lessen the pain and reduce the possibility of occurrence of social unrest as the saying goes "a hungry man is an angry man". This is not to suggest the implementation of some welfare schemes but that the man in the street can make a decent living and get on with their lives.

Most citizens are happy to get on with lives and live with what they can afford. Luxury is a relative term. The fact remains that the basic need must be met and luxury and ostentatious living are for people who wants, and is able and capable, to take the challenges of fast and fine living.

Higher costs of living is here to stay. Be ready to adapt and live within ones means. Happiness cannot be bought but it lives in our souls; you have a choice.

Of course, it is always helpful to have some help readily available but in the end, its "GOD helps those who help themselves".

I further guess the increased costs of living had made Singapore, and Singaporeans, a less tolerant society.

It is disturbing to read some recent headlines like "jail the drink drivers, cane them", "stiffer punishment for jaywalkers", "punish the errant smokers"; what has become of our society? Ungracious? Impatient? Or plain 'gun slinger' who shoots from the hips?

There are sufficient punishment, rules and Laws to keep the situation within allowable limits as no society, and no one, is perfect. I know for a fact that many smokers have cut down on smoking and some have given up, not because smoking is expensive, but because it is more inconvenient to find a place for a puff with the widening restriction on areas where smoking is allowed.

I am also aware that many who drinks opts for public transport than to drive as the enforcement of rules is evenly applied.

What about jaywalkers?

I am sure many of us treasure our lives and will not run into an oncoming traffic. By and large, the general public observe traffic rules and jaywalking is the exception rather than the norm.

Well, if anyone suggest zero tolerance for minor infringements, our society will evolve into one of elitist, selfish, self-serving lot; where the rule of the jungle applies!

The world tomorrow is not going to be a better nor easier place to live. Let us help our fellow citizens to inculcate better social manners through education and encouragement rather than to 'gun' them down everytime a minor infringement occurs.

Communal bonding, understanding and assistance will help brew a harmonious society; not one that punishes at the slightest error. Let us be economical in punishment and be generous with encouragement and education.

One last note - employment, unemployment or underemployment?

Jobs creation have increased and so has unemployment; isn't this contradicting? Well, again, not really!

There is a structural shift in employment patterns and the displaced workers may not be able to fit into a new or unrelated industry overnight. Training and re-training are just possibilities and that take time too.

Also, there is the challenge to accept lower expectation and status, not to mention lower salaries. Some choose to be contractual workers and live with being employed, or underemployment, whilst others shy away completely. The economy is dynamic and everchanging and it cannot, and will not, stop to wait for you to hop on the 'workers bandwagon'. Somehow, somewhere and someone will fill the vacancies; be it local or foreigners. Be ready to change and adapt.

No one owes you a living and no one will force you to take any jobs; you have a choice.

Correct me if I am wrong; I remember, in the old days, alot of Nantah and Poly graduates, and the (academically) lesser educated, go on to become entrepreneurs and are self-employed and they made it good. Why? It was because at that time, Singapore U graduates are in better demand in the employment market compared to them and they prove their worth by striking out. Be encouraged.

Make the move while you are able and capable to.

Rest if you must but never quit. Let us prod ourselves up, be self-motivated and be the best within our own abilities.

Above all be happy.

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Wisdom ...

Subject: WISDOM

Wisdom is ...

Far and few in between
Learning from books and other people's mistakes without soiling the Soul
Not lying to ourselves when the facts hurt yet "taking the bull by its horns"
Believing in God yet working towards our chosen goal as 'God helps those who helps themselves'
Carrying on all tasks with enthusiasm and zeal without supervision
Not giving excuses but armed with reasons when failure looms; best of all, turning challenges into successes
Not choosing soft options when the going is tough 'coos tough time don't lasts; tough people do
Finding alternative solutions without undermining the path to successes as solutions lie within the problems
Resting and slowing down but not giving up; rest if you must but never quit
Knowing what's right, doing what's right and avoiding the temptation of shortcuts
Knowing when to quit; like quiting at the top
Winning most of the time and not all the time
Being calm, happy and light hearted whilst still stuck in the 'eye of the storm'
Knowing when to say sorry
Patience, patience and more patience

... nevertheless, I am still searching & learning

authored by
Wizard

Brain or blanks

Whats on your shoulder, shouldnt be :

* A burden you carry
* A 'chip on the shoulder'
* Today's stress
* Others problems
* Dark secrets
* Lies & half-truth
* Envy & hatred

Whats on your shoulder should be

* Nothing less than a cool, wise, thinking head
* Well projected by a smily, happy face
* Forever radiant
* Always calm, humble, generous
* With abundance of justice and righteousness

And That Is The BRAIN

Whatever make we are, size and color, GOD had given us the ultimate gift; the ability to think & decide our courses in life.

[I dedicate this to all my FRIENDS who at one time or another passes my life; I wish you WELL!]

author
Wizard

Give yourself a moment to Walk Away

Subject: Walk Away ...



Walk Away from ...

Anger; nothing good can come out of anger.
Take a deep breathe, stroll by the sea, listen to music and let the soul free!

Temptation; take a wrong step and you are at the deep end.
The forbidden apple's sweetest but the result will hound you!

Greed; you will not fall for the bait by walking away.
Whatever is not yours, was never meant to be!

Envy; its the devil's ultimate of jealousy.
Envy destroys the self and your ability be rational!

Hurt; its painful but not impossible and healing will come over time.
Leave the heart open and God fills it with boundless blessings!

Quarrels; as no
good words will come out of a fiery contest.
It only widen the gap to solutions!

Hatred; the heart can never heals if burried in misery.
Let go and let live, somehow, somewhere, someday the heart will glow again!

But, don't Walk Away from friends. Real friends are far and few in between: probably your ten fingers can are too many for you to account for Real Friends!



author:
Wizard

Stockmarket - bulls, bears & sheep

Written in Jan 08 & still fairly relevant... read to discover


Introduction

After a turbulent August 2007, both Bernanke and Bush threw lifelines to starve off a potentially contagious 'financial plague' that threatens to undermine the world financial order; nonetheless both emphasized that their actions were not aimed at bailing out investors who had made bad decisions.

President Bush went further to say that its "a repricing of risks"."It's not the government's job to bail out speculators or those who made the decision to buy a home they knew they could never afford," Bush said in the Rose Garden (30/8/07).

Subprime is by all definitions not subnormal - the extent of potential damage is still being assessed. Interest rates were lowered to cushion and stabilize the slide in the stockmarket whilst Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) were allowed to take equity stakes in some established financial groups affected by the Subprime debacle.

By last quarter 2007, Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) from Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Russia, Saudi Arabia and China bought *stakes in Citibank, Merrill Lynch, Barclays, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, UBS; just to name afew.

*not all are results of subprime

SWF is expected to reach US$8 trillion by 2011. Interestingly, about 50% of London Stock Exchange is owned by Qatar and Dubai today.

The Stockmarket

Was the stockmarket fall a technical correction or the worst is yet to be?

Lets revisit some issues;

i) Any increase in interest rate in Japan is likely to raise anxieties of Yen carry trades

Unwinding of Yen carry trades require the delicate balance of interest and (currencies) exchange rates. The inherent weakness of the US$ is uneasy subset of the unwinding process.

ii) US Subprime mortgage loans 'bubble' were pricked, the exact figure is still unknown

The full blown subprime effect is yet to be felt and the numbers has yet to be fully quantified. Piecemeal solutions, like lowering of interest rate, bailouts and fixing of interest rates by FannieMae and MannieMae will only slow the impact but not resolve the real issues.

Of course, there is a harboured hope that such actions will inject some sanity and stability into the debacle and restore confidence.

Will history gives us any leads?

The U.S. economy after the 1920s and that of Japan in the 1990s were instances where the period of credit expansion lasted several years, largely involving real estate speculation, and came to involve much of the population, whether that meant plunging into American stocks with borrowed money in 1929 or buying Tokyo condos with 100-year mortgages in the late 1980s.

iii) Oil nears US$100

In absolute terms, oil looks expensive at current price but it is not that threatening if we factor in inflation and a weakened US$ (exchange rate)

iv) Emergence of China and India in the world market order

China is the workshop of the world while India provides the technical support & knowledge. Both had provided fairly cheap solutions and products over the years. However, costs had crept up in recent years. Vis-a-vis qualititative expectations, they are no longer cheap producers.

Consumers will have to pay higher prices to continue enjoying their current consumption patterns or demand will fall due to rising prices. As such profits, if any, will fall with a rise in the cost of production and current Price Earning (P/E) floats upwards making the investee companies less attractive

v) Uneven and unexpected flows of 'Hot money' or 'Liquidity flush funds'

The love-hate relationship of US$ vis-a-vis other currencies lends further uncertainties to the world market.Will the smart money flows to safe-haven Euro or Asian Markets (where their currencies is expected to appreciate against the US$) whose cost efficient companies outperform their US counterparts? If so, it will be double whammy to US; a selldown on US stocks will affect US. Coupled with properties loans defaults, unemployment rises and consumption drops ... the vicious cycle will push US into a recession! Alas! the world is ever so dependent on US as the lead consumer nation.

vi) Social order

The widening rich-poor gap threatens social order and is potentially a destabilizing factor to market at large. This is further exacerbated by increase costs of living; it will be an ultimate nightmare it the world hits stagflation in the interim.

I belief the market is experiencing a readjustment from the excessive consumption pattern and an inflated price situation boosted by cheap and easy credit. The earlier the disarrange demand and supply is restored to order, the earlier the market will enjoy an equilibrium and confidence restored.

Technically Speaking

There is no prize for guessing the correct number in the indices. The following are my 'guesswork':

Current Support LongTerm Support Remarks

STIC 3437 3200 2800 Sell into strength

HangSeng 27519 26000 20000 =same=

KLSE 1466 1250 1000 =same=

DJIA 12800 12500 11300 =same=


2008 is a volatile year for index traders.


The Stockmarket, the Sun & the Moon

There is an uncanny correlationship between the Solar Eclipse (market has a tendency to move up) and the Lunar Eclipse (market has a tendency to fall) - especially if the eclipse is total - as can be seen in the recent Lunar Eclipses in March & August 2007 (its been fairly similar since I began tracking eclipses in 1980s).

In year 2008, the following are interesting dates to watch:

7/2/08 Annular Solar Eclipse
21/2/08 Total Lunar Eclipse
1/8/08 Total Solar Eclipse
16/8/08 Partial Lunar Eclipse

Given a chance, exiting the market in any rally this year (probable occurrence during the Capricon Effect - typically beginning of the year) looks like the 'soundest' decision.

The bull, the bear and the sheep

The bulls ride the market to wealth; the bears short the indices to richness. And the sheep pay and watch the bulls and bears enrich themselves.

What do you think 2008 holds? Do share your opinions with me.

Wizard


(THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISE NOR ANY ATTEMPTS TO SWAY DECISIONS. IT SHOULD NOT, AND CANNOT, BE RELIED ON FOR MAKING ANY INVESTMENTS. IF IN DOUBTS, CONSULT YOUR OWN PROFESSIONALS FOR ADVISES; ITS FOR READING PLEASURE ONLY . ALL ABOVE INFORMATION & CONTENTS ARE WITHOUT PREJUDICE, UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED)

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