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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Happy Days Are Back - 01012009

Unlike previous years, I have chosen today [with 365 days ahead] to share my thoughts.

2008 was a trying year; a year filled with surprises, both positives and negatives! But, like all things, there is day and night, trials and tribulations and bad times shall pass. It is darkest just before dawn breaks!

It is imperative to keep the spirits high and be in good health in trying moments. A healthy, positive mind can move mountain; nothing is impossible - just do it. Don't let yesterday's drag be tomorrow's fruits. Live well and live healthily today & anyday for tomorrow's victory is there for your taking. Follow your heart!

Whether you are happy or sad, well-fed or hungry, lame or a 'fighting fit' machine, planning your work or wallowing in self-pity, you will only win and be better if you are ever-ready to receive and take the challenges when the new dawn arrives; dead man tells no tales. Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.

So, just live happily, healthily and adapt well. Whether you like it or not, the environment will change, things will change; just be there when the good times are back.

Well, Man find solutions to problems but GOD eliminates problems. In GOD we Trust; do your best and leave the rest!

Be Happy Today, Tomorrow & Anyday; Today is a HappyDay with 365 happier days to come...
You have a choice. It is our fortune to be able to help. Be genuine, kind and nice & make the world alittle nicer and pleasant for all to live

I may not be materially well off but I am contented & happy; I have enough to eat, not excessively. I have enough to go round but not luxurious though! I sleep well and soundly and bathe in the abundance of blessings - YOU can too.

You have a choice.

GOD bless; Happy NY09

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Be Guarded - a little warning - 01012009

History repeats itself! Will the world ever learn? Probably not.

When one is dine and wine by the "richest, smartest, classiest ..." more often than not they forgot that the world's a stage. They live to tell the tale that Mr/Mdm "who's who" had invited them to share their dreams and fruits of labour.

And the truth is we live among the Good, the Bad & the Ugly.

It is unkind to call Madoff's victims and Lehman Brothers investors Oxymoron - Oxymorons are a proper subset of the expressions called contradictions in terms. They were lead by their nose by established institutions and famous characters. They 'bought' themselves into the 'rich & famous' circles; only to realize that names alone do not guarantee good, reliable characters. A little due diligence and a void of greed would have saved the day.

Or was it Narcissism - The term narcissism means love of oneself, and refers to the set of character traits concerned with self-admiration, self-centeredness and self-regard - that make victims easy preys? You can win sometimes, most times but NOT all the times. When winnings come easy, complacency sets in and one becomes 'invincible'. "I" becomes an overpowering pronoun and little heed is paid to red flags as "I" know what "I" am doing!

(Narcissism - The name was chosen by Sigmund Freud, from the Greek mythof Narcissus, who was doomed to fall in love with his own reflection in a pool of water).

Lets not cry over spilled milk; pick up, review, resolve and without regret, move ahead. The next time, when things are too good to be true, it probably is!

Be guarded and smarter the next time round.

Good luck 01012009

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Recovery In Sight II - 2009 - The EAST shall rise and shine

Introduction

Is the worst behind us and is recovery in sight? Probably yes. Recovery is in sight but freak weather conditions, health scares and diseases, social unrest and lack of political will may scuttle hopes of finding universally acceptable solutions to one and all. The road is long and the slopes steep!

All Sovereign chiefs at the G20 meeting make it abandonly clear that any extension of help will be within their country first then outside; this is not a case of selfishness but survival.

When Iceland approached USA and EU for help, she was given a cold shoulder. In desperation, she approached Russia, an unlikely 'ally', and found aid.

China commits to spend S$800bil, with S$25bil to be spent this quarter and to use up the rest by 2010. China has to create jobs and spin the multiplier within to offset job losses and create demand, hopefully neutralizing social disequilibrium and disquietness, from her export-oriented economy.

Guardians or Ali Baba

The West, as leaders in finance, must learn that there is zero tolerance for gamesmanship and that the financial system must be jealously guarded against greed, hollow ideas, senseless securitisation and derivatives. Financial system cannot be completely deregulated as it is easy and never painful to toy with 'other people's money'.

The recent rebound in Wall Street is base on hope, not confidence. It is hope that President-elect Obama will listen and attend to one, and all industries, and to dish out aids and grants to stall those that are 'too big to be allowed to collapse'. Omigosh! this simply goes against the Law of Comparative/Competitive Advantage. If Mr Obama does go ahead to give handouts to all, he is sparing the rod and spoil the child.

As the Bible tells us: "He who spareth the rod hateth his son: but he that loveth him correcteth him betimes" (Proverbs 13:24)

I read somewhere that said "in dense jungles, when old, hugh trees die and fall, they allow sunlight to shine through thereby allowing new plants and saplings to grow thereby replacing deadwood."

It is not failures that make us a fool, it is when we don't learn the lessons and repeat the same (at a larger degree) that will decimate us...just to name a few - the US Savings & Loans, LTCM, Parmalat, Enron, US housing bubble ...

The World

The limping West is seeking help from richer countries and the better off but they have yet to organise their thoughts and offer constructive solutions except to ask for contributions.

The affected East is adamant of turning inwards, to fill the stomachs so as to relieve tensions - a hungry man is an angry man. Spendings on infrastructures, roads, ports, schools, hospitals, power plants ... to spin the multiplier/accelerator in order to create self-sustaining demand to replace what was once an export dependent economy. Smaller economies and nations will have to reposition and realign themselves to the new economic power/engine/region to ride the recovery. If successful, the East shall shine!
The Oil rich nations and Russia will have a whirl of a time to engage and influence geopolitical and ideological imbalances.

The world is not going to get any better until the underlying sickness [of companies, funds, countries, political gamesmanship] is treated or ringfenced. At best, there may be some semblance of stability and plateauing in 3rd Quarter 2009.

Man In The Street

Cash is King!

Not that you are not encourage to spend but spending is a flow; you spend if you know that income and earnings are forthcoming. With a dramatic economic contraction, the next meal may be uncertain let alone income and earnings.

With the arrival of New Year 2009 and after the installation of President-elect Obama and Chinese New Year, reality replaces hope. The recession had been here long before being recognised. Slowdown, layoffs, unemployment, underemployment and debts will be a norm. Soup lines may surface if the recession deepens or, worse still, depression kicks in.

Of course its not all doom and gloom. But being prepared, like being forewarned, is forearmed.

The Stockmarket

Recent Indicative High/Low (1/12/08)

Indices LOW HIGH CURRENT

HSI 10,676 32,000 14,108
Nikkei 225 7,000 18,300 8,397
JKT CI 1,100 2,800 1,223
KLCI 800 1,500 848
Shanghai A 1,700 6,400 1,894
SET 400 900 390
STI 1,500 3,900 1,690
Dow 30 7,552 14,164 8,829
S&P 500 840 1,540 893

The real economy has to lead the recovery. Besides, the redemption from the Hedge funds and the realisation into cash of portfolios held in institutions that collapsed, or near collapse, are far from over.

Recovery takes time but the lower costs of factors of production has made the road to recovery less onerous.

For the moment, this is a page to skip. For the brave, its still a trade in the bear. For those who have cash, it is also time to bargain hunt - put some into companies whose price are 'bombed-out' and is a fraction from their peak. Unfortunately, like all investment, the risks are real; just pray hard that your chosen one is not bankrupted before you cash out. If you are prepared to get into the market, be prepared to ride long haul or at worst case, your money bites the dusts!

Eclipses

Solar Eclipses
  • 2009 January 26 - annular solar eclipse
  • 2009 July 21-22 - total solar eclipse
Lunar Eclipses
  • 2009 February 9 - penumbral lunar eclipse
  • 2009 July 7 - penumbral lunar eclipse
  • 2009 August 5-6 - penumbral lunar eclipse
  • 2009 December 31 - partial lunar eclipse
As previously mentioned, eclipses have an uncanny correlation with market performances with lunar being negative and solar being positive..

2009 will have a wider mix of risks and opportunities.

May I wish everyone a Happy, Healthy New Year 2009 ... Health is Wealth

God bless

Life's Reality Can't Be Pawned

live best when others live worst... Be at peace with yourself The calm ocean has strong undercurrents The peaceful, picturesque & serene...