time changes everything but not the human's responses...
I expect the 1H/2023 to be equally uncertain and unpredictable
The scourge of Covid will extend its "Last March" against Mankind
It's not about China or anywhere else; it's an universal threat
Those who blame China for suspending quarantine & opening up are blissfully forgetful that they were the same ones who cursed China for locking-in & forbidding cross borders travel. Do you think China is indifference to their (own) people's sufferings? No. The next death could be anyone; bureaucrats, officials, peasants...
The world must unite to fight against the unknown - viruses, diseases, aliens
The financial markets has rebounded from their lows after China frees most restraints; the love-hate relationships with China borders on fantasy
When China announced the lifting of quarantine & opens the borders for intra & overseas travels, the world recognized this as the opening of "the world's workshop, the wealthy travelers, the massive tourism possibilities, the untap flows of businesses..."
On the other hand, any worsening of Russia/Ukraine war will dent hopes of further economic recovery. US+Europe (the Mule of the West) are & look bent of fueling the conflict
The idea that the cold war fought in other's home is better than on my soil is an illusion with ICBMs, SLBMs, stealth fighters and the loads of supersonic drones
My bet is:
SCSeas : Accidental war between China and Taiwan is less likely to happen than a Korean Peninsula conflict that will draw in Japan, Taiwan, US+allies & China+Russia. Without the West supplying arms, the East will rather farm the land than fight - the West fights over ideology whereas the East fight over hunger
World economy : Capital (stock) markets will decline as recession sets in as the recovery from post-Covid is battered by supply chain disruptions, higher commodities prices, rightists policies & hoarders of supplies. On balance, Asia should fare better than the West
The Globe's Better Half : The West will be paralyzed by political adventurism, military complex lobbying and their inability to stand up against untruthful propaganda while the East will be more 'stable' as the people struggle for stability in an unstable world, eking out a living & biting time for peace to return
Nuclear War : This is anybody's guess but I am not surprised that "if push comes to shove, any of the big powers will press the buttons". Nukes are not built for display
ASEAN : ASEAN will continue to grow at their own paces as trade wars force relocation of industries & China's costs creep upwards. Indonesia, Laos, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam have competitive advantages. Malaysia need to wade through her political sting but all shalt be well. Cambodia needs to reposition herself while Myanmar must settles her internal issues. Brunei remains safe & stable whilst Singapore cannot afford to stumble, both within & out. Indonesia looks most promising
2023 will remain challenging as egos & schemers try to outdo and outwit another. In the same breath, they will eliminate one another; when all passes, the (new) world will be a better place for all
I remain positive that all will ends well. Be prepared, be ready & when opportunity presents, pounce
Take shorter term of views and be prepared to eject & change course
看好就收 危机
It is not the wars nor the sudden financial collapsed that destroy (many) but the lack of faith, strengths and fluidity/adaptability that kills.
Hope to see your when Fortunes Turn Better...plausibly late 2023
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