the more uncertainties, the more opportunities 危机 & volatility...
Many stock markets had tested new highs recently
The investable assets classes; equities, bonds, mutual funds, cryptos, collectibles, properties, others, are 'in a flux'
P.Trump manage to disrupt the global economics equations 101 and shred normal agreements with his Executive Orders in his attempts to MAGA ~ Make America Great Again ~ the world economic norms will never be the same again
Alternative group, BRICS, has grown into a mature grouping capable of resetting globalization protocol and repositioning trade flows and orders - businesses are done by & between friends, with consistency in applications, rules and protocols. A refresh universal financial settlement is evolving.
Businesses seek fair exchange, reliable counterparts, more certainty & not stagnancy and avoid protectionism & unequal demands.
WATCH OUT for the next turning point around mid-August/early September ... need not be alarmed [as timing the market is an art, not a science]
Indices Year 2010 [+ - Low] 52weeks [Low] [High] Week ending [27Jul] [23 Aug]
S&P 500 1,000pts 4,835 6,315 6,388 6,466
DJIA 7,800pts 36,611 45,053 44,901 45,631
NASDAQ 1,500pts 14,784 20,980 21,108 21,496
STI 1,600pts 3,198 4,192 4,261 4,253
FTSE 100 4,000pts 7,544 9,017 9,120 9,321
NIKKEI 225 10,200pts 30,792 40,852 41,456 42,633
HS Index 13,000pts 16,441 24,874 25,388 25,339
KLSE 890pts 1,386 1,684 1,533 1,597
ASX 200 4,500pts 7,169 8,776 8,666 8,967
TaiEx 8,000pts 17,306 23,383 23,364 23,764
SSE Comp 3,200pts 2,689 3,674 3,593 3,825
SZSE Comp 1,100pts 2,144 2,342 2,200 2,393
Thai SET 1,000 1,154 1,695 1,217 1,253
Gold US$1,500 US$2,351 US$3,485 US$3,3335 US$3,418
Oil US$80 US$55 US$80 US$65 US$ 63.66
Market moves in cycles [cyclical]
Typically, there is a 4-year cycle, for eg, 1972, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024... For the longer term, 60-years cycle are applicable
Annually, the quarterly lows are: January, April, July, October
In my early 2025 write-up, I mentioned a possible fall in markets in March/April and it happened ~ luck or coincidence? Trace back pkweksh.blogspot.com & discover... Time-cycle analysis, EWTheory, fibonacci numbers & other technical skillsets are utilized to project possibilities
Examples of investment manias are the Dutch Tulip Mania and the Dot-com bubble where sharp crashes exposed the unsustainable levels due to unsustainable valuation; will the 'overvalued' AI/Tech & Crypto/Blockchain be next? Time will tell
The recent new highs in various stock markets are, at best, aberrations ~ feel good, ignored realities, getting used to trumpery & complacency
Value investing will save the day; it is not about dumping your investments but how to identify &/or switch to fair(ly) valued investments and take profits [cash out ~ nobody goes broke by taking profits] from over valued stuffs
The last Qtr, typically late Q3/early Q4, provides the widest margin for gains & losses
In 2nd-Half, 2025, re-rating, repositioning & reevaluating of markets to reflect protectionism, geopolitical discombobulation, deep distrust and a possible 'Black Swan' event
Take/Book your profits for traders & await for re-entry! What if the market continues to rise after you had exited? Do your homework and position yourself; enjoy your winnings instead ...
Long term traders & investors are like art collectors ~ need no advice
Finally, many indices [stockmarkets] are experiencing all-time/new highs but the fundamentals have, in effect, gotten worse. This is what James Dines famously quipped "everyone is ready to loss!"
When you make good money, donate some to charities ...
If you loss, blame it on the Black Swan
3 comments:
Capital/Stock markets allow for short[sell] & long[buy] orders. Generally, 3Q#entering#4Q period see the most volatility.
DJIA/S&P500/Nasdaq may pullback before rebounding [when valuations become more manageable]. Wall Street is not at the end of the road yet.
There is still lots of room for traders
LT investors are like arts collectors and are averse to trading the ranges
Of the 13 Indices followed, only 6 indices surpassed the all time [52 weeks] high by 27Jul week
By 23 Aug, most tracked indices had made past their 52weeks highs except for KLSE and Thai SET and commodities Gold and Oil...
The rebound were encouraging but the fundamentals didn't change much except that the US FED may lower rates ~ is that enough to boost trades as more tariffs fall into place and BRICS is gaining momentum?
Will the surpassing of previous highs usher in a heavier fall or the train shall continues its climb?
I am still not very convienced
Post a Comment