Monday, February 20, 2017

2017 & Forward

...trying periods need extraordinary minds and thinkinghats



As at Midday 20/2/2017

KLCI          1711
SSE             3229
JCI              5366
HSI             24116
N225           19234
DJIA           20624
Nasdaq        5838
S&P500       2351
SSE Comp   3229
STIC            3104


Written and expressed on 1/11/2016

"...CASH is King ~ for the time being

Between now and the next 6-8months, cash/money rules and can buy plentiful more units per dollar as recession and declines cut deeper. Government will practice 'zero-sum' growth & milk their people for more funding via increased taxes to fund expansionary policies. This is not sustainable and will crash in due course triggering a panic and the loosening of contractionary policies. The last sell-down will be substantial...this is manifested by protectionism, debts due and lack of loans/credit.

Short term growth from the lows, aka sell down, will lead to a rebound by mid-2017. Governments, the world over, will pass the blame of economic collapse to past policies and global economic weaknesses.

Gold will shine in an uncertain currency crisis.

Selective 'Buy/equities' in 1Q/2017 sell-down with a view to exit post August/September. Traders are discouraged from taking excessive risks.


Be prepared to cash out and rest as 2017 draws toward the close ..."


Looking forward 

We have seen stock markets galloping & US$ strengthening ahead with Trump's unique, non-stereotypical approaches with past Presidents. What were unnerving were his 'announcement' via twitter!

The world over is getting over their apprehension of President Trump 'shooting from his twitter' and are getting used to a vastly different approach. His first 100-days will change the face of old policy making methods and his business-style of running politics will give it a commerce-push.

It's left to be seen what can come out of this but the financial markets had read ahead of it ~ BULLISH

Let's look at this from the business angle:

1st 3 months ~ Trump negotiate favourably for & on behalf of the American people
2nd 3 months ~ Market take a bumper leap forward as goodies were factored in
3rd 3 months ~ Expectations exceed executions and promises and high-seas drama catches up against better economic judgement. 
With military gamesmanship and little headway made in economic promises, protectionism sets in and talks stalled. Distrust sets in...

Final quarter ~ when all goodwill are expended, conflicts and protectionism raise their ugly heads. 

Europe is also muddled with economic setbacks and chaos due to distrust, re-negotiations and a less united but more expensive NATO. A divided & disgruntled globalisation is terminal for trades.

Oil will remain range bound between $40-70.


Conclusion

There are opportunities in a/any crisis 危机
Do your homework and invest wisely. 
Being nimble footed is an added strength. 
Choose the right industry (-ies) as the sun will set on some brick and mortar commerce
Investing is not a weak-hearted game
If your investment horizon is more than 3 years, guess you are fine

**Singapore has her fair share of doubts but if our forward plans are indeed longer term, with a willingness to kill the sacred cow, prosperity shall return.
**Using the same old solutions to existing problems without a will to break groupthink is the surest way to stagnation or diminishment.
**Every fools will make money in the upswing; it's the downswing that separate the man from the boys

Good Luck





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