They say smart money will thrives
But, who decides where to put what, how much, how reliable the fundamentals are...etc
It is not "Random walk" but plentiful of educated guesses, assumptions and bases
Global, regions, countries, sectors, companies...the management
In fact, companies do not fail; it's the management
Laws and regulations cannot catch up with the fluidities & craftiness of a rogue mind
In 7th Jan, 2020, I wrote in this blog "... I postulate that in 2020, the world will remain uncertain within the first 6 months and shall see the worst by 3rd-Qtr, with recovery towards end 2020..."
Global markets have swing wildly from almost the peak to untested lows & lower lows
Most have recovered from the bear-slap to a fairly 'bullish' pitch
But, hold on your champagne - hold it, hold it
The rebound is lead by slush printing of notes/monies to flood the black crater of depression
Put enough water into the hole & it will look like a lake
Water, water everywhere
But, drinkable water is not easily available
Civilization starts near water source
Water 水 - 水为财
In similar vein, too much water [print too much money] causes disaster
2020 is the Year of Possibles
Many impossible thoughts turned possibles; countries closed, airports closed, aeroplanes mothballed, work stopped, debts freeze, businesses ceased, home quarantine is a norm, demand and supply both evaporated & ....
COVID19 will change the whole ecosystem of how we live, eat, work, study ...not unlike 9/11
For the smart leaders, outsourcing must stop or minimize least the sudden shortages
The people's leader will prioritize citizens over foreigners
Money is important but money cannot buy essentials, loyalty and necessities
Smart monies no longer go "in herd"; everyone will try to identify their own winners
How will the bashed up stockmarkets return to their upswing? By the printing of money
It is a different financial world altogether
Debts, interests, repayments, instalments are halted and given 6-12months reprieve
Payments resume thereafter & if bankruptcies rise, banks will be badly hit
Job losses is the norm as supply and demand are short circuited by COVID
Cash flows determine survival
How soon and how fast individual economy resumes is subjective but if the big boys are not moving, there is little that the smaller ones can do to resume
Financial institutions will be suspicious of each other as much as against the business community
Even if Government cares to warranty the debts and loans, confidence is so shaken that many business endeavors are suspect
Where stock markets are concerned, be discreet and agile
Trade the range and be prepared to cut loss with "stop loss" orders
Gold has moved swiftly from
With Government printing more money, inflation or hyperinflation is a possibility
Equities will "reflect the value in the currency", that is, price shalt rise on a de-valued currency
It is going to be trying to second guess the turbulent future
If war breaks out, equity market is doomed & commodities markets will gain
Market will still be turbulent and trade range bound this quarter
It should dip and stabilize into 3rd quarter and recover by end-2020
Brave the range
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