Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Stockmarket : Buy, Sell, Hold or I Don't Know

Like Sunrise & Sunset, the market shall flow

In February 2009, I wrote that "The markets (Asian markets - East - seem to perform better) had rebounded from their lows and the rebound is based on hope NOT confidence. Its likely that we will see the market testing the lows in the coming months as hope turns hollow."

In March 2009, when market was near the trough, I penned "For cash rich investors and those who needs to deploy their funds, its ideal to 'buy on weakness'; you will be right if you can ride out the crisis and time is on your side."

By June 2009, I chose to "
test, the empirical probabilities that :

1) Sentiments dull and stockmarket moves down in, or around, a Lunar Eclipse

2) Sentiments improve and stockmarket moves up in, or around, a Solar Eclipse

Both correlation were proven to be highly correlated.

What's next?

I am only an armchair player and I derive satisfaction in seeing my postulations proven correct.

My take is :

i) The best is behind us; beware of inflation, at best, and, at worst, deflation, going forward.

ii) Between now to Nov 09, trend changes with a 'flip of a coin', that is, volatile. Nobody makes money in a stable market, except stockbrokers, albeit lesser.

iii) The winners must identify trend leaders in pharmaceuticals, natural resources, banks and publishing and gaming.

iv) For those who are game, the 'cheapies' are ideals for RTO and asset-based plays.

Its fun making money but also be ready to empty your wallets if the bets fall on hard grounds. Before I forget, to those who had made good money, spare alittle for charity and the less fortunate.

Social harmony is the stabilizer whichever way the market goes!

The way is not in the sky. The way is in the heart. Giving properly means doing so confidently and without too much encumberments. [Buddha]

“And so I tell you, keep on asking, and you will receive what you ask for. Keep on seeking, and you will find. Keep on knocking, and the door will be opened to you. For everyone who asks, receives. Everyone who seeks, finds. And to everyone who knocks, the door will be opened. (Luke 11:9-10)

1 comment:

Roger Lee said...

May I know what is the meaning of "armchair player" ?