Monday, October 24, 2016

Opportunities In A Crisis- 2017

...history repeats itself

1987 - The Black Monday - 1986/87 were watershed years. The stockmarket crash (Black Monday) was the largest one-day drop; DJIA lost 22.6% or $500bil on October 19, 1987

1997 - The Asian Financial Crisis 1997/98The Asian financial crisis started in Thailand with the collapse of the Thai baht in July 1997. Asian economic miracles became Asian Financial Contagion. Interest rates hit 32% in the Philippines and 65% in Indonesia

2007 - It was called the Global Financial Crisis 2007/08 although it was US-centric spilled over effects. What triggered the meltdown were subprime (high risk) loans then bundled and sold to quasi-government agencies (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) and traded as mortgage-backed securities. The result of "high risk, complex financial products; undisclosed conflicts of interest; the failure of regulators, the credit rating agencies, and the market itself to rein in the excesses of Wall Street.

Will 2017 be any different or the same? If "Yes", what will trigger the crisis?
Many theories have been forwarded from currency & banking crisis to global slowdown to military gamesmanship to a 'freak election results in US (anyone can win and the result is final, NOT freak)'.
It's probably DISTRUST, greed, selfishness and the need to dominate that will trigger the next crisis. The global economic slowdown will trigger the cannibalization of global trade Blocs as trade Blocs crack and divorce.  
This is further aggravated by repatriation of non-citizens and the need to protect locals against unemployment & underemployment thereby setting forth a tit-for-tat protectionism. 
The military gamesmanship by US/NATO and Russia/China and the quagmire of need to dominate geopolitically will undermine the global banking system and the confidence in the respective currencies. Without trust, the global trade will collapse; we will be witnessing a situation worse than the 'Great Depression'.
The excesses of globalisation will take years to consume and food & water will be the 'trade currency' and bargaining chips. The madness of war and threats of an 'all-out nuclear' war will hamper recovery. Unless, and until, TRUST is restored, little can be done to rebuild the damaged split-global economy. Brexit is just the beginning. 

Prosperity happens where there are trusts and mutual gains can be built.

However, it will not be all 'doom & gloom'; war reparation triggers economic recovery. A new world order will surface and a new form of economic exchange shall rise. With TRUST, recovery, rebuilding and growth returns. Watch ASIA & Gold

2017 will still see plentiful of opportunities in the stockmarkets

No comments: