Tuesday, November 8, 2011

The New Economic Order III

Make or break ...

Europe is co-mingled in a debt crisis, US is locked in a political quagmire, China is slowing down, Japan is still in a deflationary doldrums while the rest of the World looks on helplessly.

Is the World so helpless or have we worked into a No-Through road? And, Why?

Capitalism : an economic system characterized by private or corporate ownership of capital goods, by investments that are determined by private decision, and by prices, production, and the distribution of goods that are determined mainly by competition in a free market

It is not Capitalism that fails, its Greed, Indifference and Complacency

Leaders rewarded themselves handsomely beyond reasonableness and leeched on the very system that cares for all and sundry. Regulators were too busy sharing the spoils unaware and unfamiliar with the complexity of issues at hand. In boom times, even fools make money and few complain.

In the Asian Financial Crisis (97/98), Asia was forced to open their industries for grabs following the meltdown. But, will the West similarly allow the more successful, powerful and cashrich entities to acquire their failed institutions for a song - restructure, recapitalize and revive - and recharge the ailing World economy? Probably not!

EU, especially their failing comrades. are looking for loans, grants and write-offs not equity participation. Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, even Iceland are overdue for a remake and change in mentality. EU's noble policies and ambitions were undermined by lackadaisical partners.

US is a limping giant living on borrowed money and an (American) dream. Perhaps, only a 'dictatorial' democracy, dosed with austerity, can cure US of her spending binge, not necessarily bad though; an unlikely, but necessary, move!

The backyard workshops in China are slowly evolving into characters of her own but current domestic demands are not able to power China into the forefront, albeit being a number two economic power. China should pan towards an Euro-Asia (Russia-CIS + China-ASEAN) including Australia-NZ. Already, China is benefiting from her transnational rail-links and roads and her friendlier, less abrasive diplomacy.

With divisive threats within EU, political gamesmanship in US and a power-to-be economic powerhouse, China, globalization does not equal to One World, One Voice; its simply a marriage of convenience.

In the meanwhile, sub-sets like the Russian-CIS, MidleEast, ASEAN and smaller, less organised groupings are swaying in the sea of threats and opportunities; their decisions being 'bought' and influence by sheer economics.

Russo-AustraAsia is the best bet; still growing without the excesses of established capitalism.

Large scale wars are unlikely but pockets of conflicts or surrogate wars are inevitable. Protectionism and nationalism will also rise in lieu of self-preservation and self-serving policies.

With contained demand and deflation and/or recession, commodity(ies) prices will ease. Land squeeze and deforestation will lessen. Stockmarkets will  come off and the pace of life will slow. The World is getting smaller with compact space and time and the wired environment will cause more confusion through misinformation.

The X-factors are natural (or man-made) calamities and diseases.

The current equation and socio-political dominance will change dramatically when X-factor strikes, not unlike the terrorists attacks of 9/11.

All is not lost; after the destruction, comes reconstruction; Dreadfully painful but necessary.

Doom and gloom, like growth and boom, are just part of the journey. If you are running through Hell, run faster and you will get out earlier!

In a wired World, where everyone can work from home, sparing time for home-base, soil-less food production, a whole new configuration and demand pattern will emerge. Home and delivery service will be the norm and logistics and supply-chain management rules.

When US, EU, Russo-AustraAsia globalized congruently again, this will be a better place for all.

You and I will live long enough to see this happening. Maybe, sooner rather than later.

1 comment:

wizard said...

The Transpacific pact, without China and Russia will fail. A Russo-China or Sino-Russian pact will out rival nag outgrow them by sheer strength of 'market and money'.

TPP is protectionism in disguise! Just because China is not agreeable to liberalize the yuan faster, it shunted out... Whose rules are these?