Understanding StockMarket

Stockmarket - Bulls, Bears, Sheep & Ants

The bulls buy with a hope that market will rise

The bears sell & profit from downswing

The sheep follow bulls or bears

The ants buy/sell on rumors, hearsay & generally make the least money & take extreme risks

*Time Cycle Analysis -
Market Moves In Cycles

•They are the (see charts) :

•4 Year Cycles

•10  Year Cycles

•40 - 60 Year Cycles – also read Kondratiev Cycle

( 1800 Steam Engines/Cotton  1850 Railway/Steel  1900 Electrical Engineering & Chemistry  1950 Petrochemicals & Automobiles 1990 Information Technology)

•And the shorter term Quarterly Cycles – January, April, July, October

4 Year Cycle

•2016 - ??

•2012 - Global Recession/Slowdown

•2008 - Financial Crisis

•2004 - Argentinian Crisis/SARS

•2000 - DotCom

•1996 - Asian Financial Crisis

•1992 - Black Wednesday (British pound withdrawn from      European Exchange

•1988 - Norwegian Banking Crisis

•1984 - Third World Crisis -Philippines & Singapore Recession (PanEl)

•1980 - US – Savings & Loans (S&L)

•1976 - UK National Debt

•1972 - Overproduction, Under Consumption, Oil Crisis

10 Year Cycle

2007 •Global/Euro Financial Crisis

1997 •Asia Financial Crisis

1987 •Black Monday

Quarterly Cycle

January •Capricon Effect, Portfolio Re-alignment

April •1st Quarter Report

July •Mid-Year Review

October •Jupiter Effect/Performance Recalibration

Singapore - Don't Despair

Where there is a will, there is a way...

I am quite caught up with the social inequality, discontent, maltreatment and disadvantages in Singapore and have always wanted to 'right the wrong'. But, many a time, there is little I can do except to voice out in the internet, be it through feedbacks, forums, Facebook and the likes.

I have also wonder aloud what can I achieve or is there someone out there listening, or even bothers to listen? Most times, I conclude that 'I am talking to myself'; not mad but a new normal afflicting many.

There are supposedly so much discord and uneasiness amongst the population. Issues like rising costs; housing, cars, food, medical & medicine - not a week pass without some price rises!

What went wrong?

Whether the Government (G) is looking into it, seems to be looking into it or will vigorously rectify the cries and bagful of issues is beyond me alone. But, taken as a whole, drips & drops fill an ocean. But, having said this, I am still hopeful.

I am aware there are many religious and charitable organisations and philanthropic people who go out of their way to help the poor, the needy, the sick, the less able and disable. Even the rag & bone aunty who comes around my area donates generously to charity & others in need.

It is heartwarming that our G do/must support these causes and efforts. The G must refrain from making things (eg rentals, leases or utilization of space) expensive and scarce. In fact, spaces should be made readily available for such selfless acts. I shudder to think that 'must collect fees' approach.

A friend of mine use to (and still does) organise charitable work together with CCs. The CC provide the tentage and he organise, including looking for volunteers, sponsors, helpers, cook and distribute. The CCs 'get the name' and he (and others) get to work. The only strange thing that I observed is, on occasion, even the VIP is absent (didn't turn up) to support the event.

Another two business friends I know run a soup kitchen and provide meals daily, come rain, sunshine or thunderstorm.

Many a times, I hear & read that G is not doing enough. It is not for me to judge neither will I. Well, The people can see. If everyone keeps complaining and nobody lift their hands, sufferings & pains increase, problems and resentment multiply; what good do we get?

May I suggest to all; help if you can, care & share. We can't wait until we have the last man standing. Instead of complaining about those who didn't do or support the/your cause, why not proactively offer yourself, your efforts & money counts.

To a better Singapore; to a better world...
  

The Truths : MSM versus Alternative Media/Blogs (AMB)

Information, misinformation, truths and half-truths...

MSM -

reports usually pro-establishment

Its everything good, rosy and harmony

Statistics are polished to reflect the 'right' news

Pro-Govt views are praised and non-conforming, confronting and non-conventional views are caged

Surveys, comments and feedbacks are generally skewed towards pro-establishment

Weak in reporting frank, challenging opinions



AMB -

reports dissent, discrimination & discontent

It dissect, discuss and present facts for their readers

Statistics are analysed and weakness reported

Pro-Govt views are scorned upon while most news are reported

You hear both/all sides of the comments with some brutally frank opinions

Report as 'it is' with minimal editing on those with expletives, cursing & 'mannerisms' issues


Conclusion -

Both serve a purpose; to allow comparison and to reflect preferred views or truer/factual views. However, its best not to distort views.  It's also good to know when you are consistently 'one-sided'. Nonetheless, a 'broken clock is right twice a day' & readers understand.

Do Not Tell Lies

A lie is a lie, including white lies...

When you lie to a kid, you give false hopes
Soon he will learn that this is a hopeless world where everything is promised until delivered
Trust is scarce
You kid learns to lie in order to survive & achieve what he wants

When you lie to your family, they live in uncertainty
Soon your family will have to make decisions without you as you are not dependable
Family warmth is absent & silence is deafening with your presence
Without you, your family becomes more hopeful

When you lie to elders or elderly, including your aging parents, you are hurting them
They may not blame you because its motherly/parental love but your hurts live and multiply within
They love to see you happy, bathe in your lies and sacrifice their time but wallow in misery
The biggest punishment is they die with a smile and you have not chance to say "I am sorry"

It's stressful to lie as you need to remember what you had said

No amount of redress and rectification can make those hurt by you recover
The physical scars remain & the emotional hurts is imbedded in the blood
Whatever you do, do not lie

Some  day, some time, the hyenas will dance around the aged, defenceless lion king
He lied that he is the king of the jungle as we all know, death is the leveller

Money Does Wonders, Without Money I Can Only Wonder

What drives a gambler? He knows he will win
The more he wins, the more gutsy he becomes
The casino fears no winners but quiters
Ten wins can't cover one loss as when you win, you spend. But, losses come from your wallet

Tycoons are made & winners rule the stock market
Quiters get to keep their crown
Players never double or quit but increase their exposure via credit
Every rise multiply gains but every downswing doubly cleans

Nobody wins until he leaves the table or quit the market

When the chips are high, the smiles are wide
Friends abound & wines flow - feasting is a new normal
Crowd cheers you on

Frown, fears & tempers flare  as chips lessen
Friends turned foes while debts pile
Only dreams & hopes will cheer you on

I was their wonder & idol
Without money, I can only wonder...

Money makes the world go round
Without money only doubts abound

When you have cash in your pocket, doubts give way to confidence

I have a dream; I dream I am a simpleton
I don't chase money but I do welcome money aplenty
I need to spend freely, without concern about opportunity cost
Then, I am rich

Stock Market - New High Or New Sigh

Who knows best about the stock markets?

The bulls, the bears, the sheep or the ants?
The bulls make money on upswing, the bears shine on collapses & downswings while the sheep follow & the ants spread rumors, trade on hearsay & pay dearly for acting on misinformation.

Everyone wants to make money but few do their homework.

We have seen some meaningful correction, followed by a rebound. Will the rebound last, create new highs or tumble into the wilderness?

Looking at the charts, the best is yet to be.

Companies do not fail; it's the management. Prices trade & trend in cycles. What goes up will come down, vice versa. There are a lot to learn & everyday is new.

October is an exciting & exacting month with the best & worst performers happening over a small window of time.

October 2013 will recover & perform well into 1st quarter 2014; Market rewards the brave & those who are prepared. Been there, done that!

Good luck; if you make money, spare some for the poor & needy.

Friday - The End Or The Weekend

Working life is never the same with the net & web
Any day & every day is a working day
Stress comes in all shapes & sizes, every seconds of the day; likewise rewards
The blind sees light whereas many live in darkness immersed in misery instead of basking in glory

Small winnings, like droplets, fill the ocean
Count your blessings & whatever the Kingdom brings, it's never permanent
The first, the champions, the greatest will always be challenged; I happened to be the second best
It's my size in the fight that makes the difference, not my size

7 days, 24 hours/day
Work never stops, life cannot stop & I would not stop
I do not contest everything nor do I run away when challenged
I pick & choose my fights

Winning is everything but I win wars, not battles
I lie low when the chips are low & every return is a Strike & three strikes is a Turkey
Every moments is cherished & every breathe counts
Tomorrow is better & today's the greatest

Whether it's Friday, Sunday, Wednesday or any day
Time has been compressed & many are caught in the web
Give yourself the break
Take yourself out of the race

Whatever is yours shall be yours
Whatever is stolen, you pay more
Be humble & be grateful
Most importantly, be yourself

Any day & everyday is ......... The Beginning

Lone Ranger Without Pronto

When the baby is born, he must cry to signal life & it's beginning
CRY! Why cry when the rest laugh at his arrival? It's because life is a journey of struggles
The baby learns early that he must cry to get food & be fed
The screaming baby gets attention & gets what he wants

Without fears & worries, he walks, stumbles, gets hurt, stand up & walk again
His broken bones heal fast, his pain, if any, translates into worries for his caregivers
He is oblivious to worries
His curiosity motivates him to experiment & explore

Our lives are shape by the environment & everything around us
With maturity, cames carefulness & calculated risk taking
We learn to avoid pains & failures
We learn to eat humble pies, tell lies &/to survive

There is a motive in everything we do
We are motivated by agendas, goals & dreams
Winners take all & fallen stars aplenty
Success does not mean recess but success begets successes

Working hard don't always help & its not the answer but working smart leads to better results
Success is a lot of hard work, with large doses of luck
I have worked very hard with sprinklers of smartness
But, without luck, little can be achieved

I am the lighthouse & the light that glows within me is LUCK
Without the light, aka luck, I will be the darkest lighthouse
The Lone Ranger without Pronto (Luck) has a long journey to tread, alone & in loneliness
Whatever ... It's Luck that counts

Remember: if you don't raise your objection like a baby who cries to get attention, you will forever be downtrodden

Ask & it's given, seek & you shall find. Knock & the door opens for you
With luck in tow, everything is possible

October - When The Cold Wind Blows

It's getting quiet, cold & lonely
The wintry breeze is being felt, the ground is freezing & the leaves are withering
9 months gone & 3 months to go before 2013 disappears
I have the feeling of void, emptiness & hollowness
Another page to turn for a tire soul

I have enjoyed every spring & summer
Autumn is getting a little cold for my liking with winter creeping in
I used to love the cold, freezing winter; will this year be the same? Guess, I will know soon
I am tire

Tomorrow will be a better day

It's not the size of the dog in the fight; it's the fight in the dog
I will fight destiny & I shall win
The route to my goal is within me
I will shine in the darkest darkness as always

Being alone is not lonely
Emptiness is not void
I ... I shall sail freely in the ocean of uncertainty
To my chosen destiny ...
Beginning immediately

When the cold wind blows again, I shall take the commander's view
I shall pilot myself to my chosen shore ...I am the lighthouse

The StockMarkets - Swinging & Singing

Many want to make profits but few want to do homework...

Bulls & bears make money but the sheep are slaughtered; the bulls buy & the bears shot with the sheep following blindly behind.

Nikkei Index (NI 14,024) - NI ran from end Nov 2012 & peaked in June 2013; its in a corrective phase

Hang Seng (HSI 23,138) - HSI had a volatile year. It saw lows in Nov 2012, April & July 2013 and Highs in Feb, June, Sep; it is recovering from the major sell-down seen in June 2013

Straits Times Index (STI 3138) - Like most, the low was seen in Nov 2012 & peaked in June 2013; not surprise to see the STI hitting near low of 2800 points before recovering. A move above 3300 will see STI testing & creating new highs

FT Bursa (KL 1776) - It's tough breaking KL 1800; even if it does, will turn down from KL 1850

Dow Jones (DJI 15072) - DJI has been rising on an uptrend since seeing the low in Nov 2012. Downside risk of DJI is 14800, with an (aberration) push towards DJI 14000; a likely scenario but should recover well enough to test all time high.

S&P (S&P 1690) - Uptrend intact since low in Nov 2012; may pull back to 1580 before the next rise

Nasdaq (NQ 3807) - The most promising chart with upside 4000 potential; short term correction expected

Stock markets go in cycles and typically October is the most volatile. Any sell-down in October 2013 (very likely) will followed by a good upswing into November. Carry through run into beginning of 1Qtr, 2014, reflects trend continuation similar to that the last cycle.


The game is old & the players are new. 
Guess, we will have an interesting year ending (2013) & an exciting new beginning (2014)



This is NOT an/any investment advice and nobody should rely on this; if in doubts, seek advises from your professional stockbrokers. lawyers, bankers and the likes.   


Trade with care; if you make money, spare some for the less fortunate

Man build, Man destroys

It takes conviction & commitment to build the future
It is foresight & 'fighting to achieve' a cause that drives determination
No obstacle is too big nor onerous when life & death is fraught
In adversity, a new leader is born

Why don't successful companies last forever nor do successful families
It's not just adaptation nor creativity; it's values
When the right values, culture & practices are embedded
The roots of longevity is cemented

But, more often than not, when success gets 'into the head'
Nepotism, cronyism, 'yes-man ship' & groupthink seep in
The refusal to accept differing views & accept criticism are poignant in pre-collapses
It's the 'emperor without clothes' syndrome & compliance &  absolute obedience become the ultimate death nail

The first generation builds
The second generation strive for expansion, diversification & stability
The third generation enjoys & destroys
Death comes faster with incest, in-breeding & self-serving agenda

The furtherest views forward is only 'nose length'
Every honest mistakes is 20/20 hindsight
The best & ablest are 'yes-man' & groupthink prevails
How not to collapse into the wilderness


When leaders & their men becomes one
And dissenting views are frowned upon
The mass suffers

Is redemption near? Change will come, sooner rather than later